Mainline- Airline Pilot Demand

surreal1221

surreal1221

Well-Known Member
While everyone else is busy worrying about PSA's next base, where TSA/GoJets is housing trainees, and when ExpressJet will self-destruct...

People with much more resources than myself have compiled quite the intriguing read regarding mainline pilot demand at "destination" airlines.

It may not be as interesting as trolling JetCareers, but I expect some folks may actually enjoy reading empirical based outlooks on the airline pilot career field.

Audries Aircraft Analysis said:
These models make a couple of important assumptions. We assume every pilot at the majors makes it to 65. In addition we make the assumption that the fleet size in 2020 will be each airlines rough fleet size through 2030, or will grow at a rate 1.4% per year as forcasted by Boeing or 7% for Emirates in the Middle East. However it should be noted in the 1.4% Growth assumption we assume each airline retains their present market share, which may also change.
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Audries Aircraft Analysis said:
An additional Note: Any seat lowering of scope will drastically change these numbers, however any increase in scope, will probably not effect these numbers much (due to these projections being based on aircraft allready ordered) unless the scope allows regional’s to fly E190′s and larger. Also it is helpful to note all the aircraft that have been ordered are E190′s or larger.
Aircraft Options were also not included into this model, and exercise of those options would likely increase the amount of pilot’s demanded by these airlines.
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http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/airline-pilot-demand/airline-pilot-demand-comparison/
 
crazyjaydawg said:
Yep, there are thousands of jobs to be had over the next 10+ years. The key is getting hired sooner rather than later...
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Don't get me wrong, seniority is awesome but you can make a pretty good life for yourself at a major, even at the bottom of the list, even making (not first year) FO pay. That said, yes, the faster you can get on at the front of the wave, the better your career will be, but I was majorly sweating the differences in 8 months of being hired (@sorrygottarunway) but run that out over a 25+ year career and it doesn't matter at all.
 
BobDDuck said:
Don't get me wrong, seniority is awesome but you can make a pretty good life for yourself at a major, even at the bottom of the list, even making (not first year) FO pay. That said, yes, the faster you can get on at the front of the wave, the better your career will be, but I was majorly sweating the differences in 8 months of being hired (@sorrygottarunway) but run that out over a 25+ year career and it doesn't matter at all.
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I agree 100%. I'm just thinking I'd rather get hired by 2016-17 time range instead of the 2025 range. I'm not splitting hairs like at the regionals: doood take zee first class!
 
cencal83406 said:
I... Just... Want... To get hired.

Not having even a show of interest from these places is somewhat disheartening.
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Don't be disheartened. The metric in how people are selected has little to do with the quality of the applicant and more to do with luck and how you fit some PhDs idea of a "pilot". Things happen for a reason. Enjoy the ride, the destination just means game over.
 
Dugie8 said:
Things happen for a reason. Enjoy the ride, the destination just means game over.
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I blew two major/legacy interviews and had to re interview at third before I got a call. It worked out amazingly (so far anyway) for me in the end, but there was a lot of doubt and bitterness I had to get through in the meantime.

As for the second point... I can't emphasis this enough. While there are certainly lots and lots of things I don't miss about the daily slog at a regional, there are other things I do miss. Yes, it is much better in the big leagues, but don't write off your time there as pointless or always miserable. Also, and I can't say this enough, DO NOT let your quest for moving on to a bigger, better job get in the way of time with your spouse and family. Sure, you will have to go to job fairs and interviews on your days off, and you have to keep up with and do research on where to be submitting your applications, but DON'T let it consume you. In hindsight it may have happened anyways, but the constant stress and pressure of trying to make it to the big show, that I allowed to become part of our everyday life, was one of the biggest reasons (according to her anyway) that my marriage ended.
 
I read another article of their's the other day. The author has no freaking clue about 135 and 91k ops. The number of pilots they have listed for those positions is at least 1/10th of reality. They list 135 FO's for companies that only fly single pilot, then they only list 13 135 companies. There's over 400 in my state. Ours alone has at least 50 pilots. No freaking clue.
Then on the 121 side the only freight carriers listed are Fedex and UPS. lolololol.

Given that, and their sources for a lot of their other numbers, I'm not inclined to believe anything they say. To me, it looks like something made up by a brand new pilot at some fancy flight school that hasn't the foggiest clue about how varied aviation really is.

Here's the one I'm referencing - http://www.audriesaircraftanalysis.com/2013/03/30/pilot-training-pipeline-by-the-numbers/
 
It's one guy who is currently an FO at a regional who runs the site. Not sure how much help he has though from other sources. He is very intelligent and a numbers oriented gent. While the data sources may or may not be wholly accurate, his analysis of the data is pretty solid. Nice guy with no agenda but to inform the rest of us with the data available.

If you question his info, send him an email I'm sure he'd like better info.
 
Dugie8 said:
Don't be disheartened. The metric in how people are selected has little to do with the quality of the applicant and more to do with luck and how you fit some PhDs idea of a "pilot". Things happen for a reason. Enjoy the ride, the destination just means game over.
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Doing the taboo thing and quoting my own post, but...

I just read on FI about a pilot getting an interview at Delta, all Mil, 3000 hours TT, 2000 TPIC with the vast majority being single engine.

I have close to 5000 hours TT, 1300 TPIC, multiple type ratings and a 121/135 background. No phone call, yet.
 
Dugie8 said:
Don't be disheartened. The metric in how people are selected has little to do with the quality of the applicant and more to do with luck and how you fit some PhDs idea of a "pilot". Things happen for a reason. Enjoy the ride, the destination just means game over.
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That and there are just so many applicants it's really a crap shoot on who gets selected even for a phone call.
 
Dugie8 said:
Doing the taboo thing and quoting my own post, but...

I just read on FI about a pilot getting an interview at Delta, all Mil, 3000 hours TT, 2000 TPIC with the vast majority being single engine.

I have close to 5000 hours TT, 1300 TPIC, multiple type ratings and a 121/135 background. No phone call, yet.
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It's not a numbers game. Don't get caught up in the algebra of who gets a call and who doesn't. Airlines look for "whole package" candidates and some airlines, for better or for worse, prefer "known quantity candidates" -- not numbers, but prefer certain "pedigrees" if you will.

Large university flight programs (not that I agree, but that's what I've been told by the folks that decide who comes in and who doesn't), military applicants and such.

Remember, it's a "preference".

Plus, volunteer work and other things that set you apart as an applicant is what they're looking for as all 10,000-plus applications meet all of the minimum requirements and 100% of them say "I'm a pilot, here's some numbers and stuff I flew". Get some stuff on your resume and application that reflect that you're not just a fleshy autopilot, but an actual blood, bone and guts human being.
 
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Derg said:
It's not a numbers game. Don't get caught up in the algebra of who gets a call and who doesn't. Airlines look for "whole package" candidates and some airlines, for better or for worse, prefer "known quantity candidates" -- not numbers, but prefer certain "pedigrees" if you will.

Large university flight programs (not that I agree, but that's what I've been told by the folks that decide who comes in and who doesn't), military applicants and such.

Remember, it's a "preference".

Plus, volunteer work and other things that set you apart as an applicant is what they're looking for as all 10,000-plus applications meet all of the minimum requirements and 100% of them say "I'm a pilot, here's some numbers and stuff I flew". Get some stuff on your resume and application that reflect that you're not just a fleshy autopilot, but an actual blood, bone and guts human being.
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Yeah, I started filling out the 'Murican app the other day. They want me to break down all of my time by airplane. First off, why does it matter how much night time I have in a Katana? Second, I think they should be able to see my experience level by looking at my resume and total time. We pretty much all have the same amount of experience.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
Yeah, I started filling out the 'Murican app the other day. They want me to break down all of my time by airplane. First off, why does it matter how much night time I have in a Katana? Second, I think they should be able to see my experience level by looking at my resume and total time. We pretty much all have the same amount of experience.
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They want to know that you can read instructions and follow directions.

(I'm serious!)
 
Dugie8 said:
Enjoy the ride, the destination just means game over.
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Pretty much the biggest thing I learned on college. Absolutely hated GFK so much that I put every waking minute into trying to get the hell out of there. Forgot to relax and enjoy my time in college. In hindsight I should have left there early and gone somewhere where I could have enjoyed myself a little more.

That being said, I understand the frustration of being stuck at a regional. I've been flying the exact same planes to the exact same 13-14 destinations for the last 3+ years. Due to increases in health insurance costs, my annual raise is pretty much non existent. I have, and continue to, learn a lot. But I'm definitely ready for some change.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
Can't they just have me do a Sudoku or something during the interview?
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Ha! They should! :)

I'm a broken record on this, but remember, it's not a numbers game. If you have to, go volunteer at a soup kitchen one weekend and throw it on your resume if you've got nothing other than aviation-related things.

Find the time. It'll pay off in career earnings. No excuses.
 
Derg said:
Ha! They should! :)

I'm a broken record on this, but remember, it's not a numbers game. If you have to, go volunteer at a soup kitchen one weekend and throw it on your resume if you've got nothing other than aviation-related things.

Find the time. It'll pay off in career earnings. No excuses.
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I love that my volunteer work is basically playing with dogs at the animal shelter. Much fun.
 
How do we multi quote now? Am I missing something?

Screaming_Emu said:
Yeah, I started filling out the 'Murican app the other day. They want me to break down all of my time by airplane. First off, why does it matter how much night time I have in a Katana? Second, I think they should be able to see my experience level by looking at my resume and total time. We pretty much all have the same amount of experience.
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Because the guy who has 100 hours in a C172, 100 hours in a Katana, 100 hours in a Warrior and a 100 hours in a Cirrus, probably (in theory) has a better base of experience than the guy with 400 hours of 172 time. Resumes with total time don't show very much other than total time. Think of all the 10,000 hour idiot captains you've ever flown with who look really good on paper but are really terrible pilots (stick and rudder and thinking skills) in actuality.


Derg said:
They want to know that you can read instructions and follow directions.

(I'm serious!)
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This is SO true. Easiest way to screen out an application is get one that is filled out incorrectly. It's like spelling mistakes on a resume or cover letter.
 
Screaming_Emu said:
I love that my volunteer work is basically playing with dogs at the animal shelter. Much fun.
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I made the mistake of moving over from just walking dogs at the Humane Society here to also taking lost and found reports. It is TOUGH talking to somebody on the phone who just lost their dog or cat and doesn't know if they will ever get them back again. Very rewarding work, but draining. It's nice to get back outside and just play with the dogs for a while afterwards.
 
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