Is there still plenty of time?

[ahsmatt7]

I have been reading a few "should I stay in this industry &/or should I still try to be an airline pilot?" threads. It has gotten me thinking about a few things. a JC member stated that around 2012 when all the 65 yr olds retire, the airlines could be in a feeding frenzy. I am 20 years old about to turn 21 and I am still working on my PPL. I have a yr and a half left of college and plan on doing my training full time once I graduate. Will the airlines still be hiring after the first big wave, or should I start going hardcore with my training now. Flying corporate is a very big option however I have talked to some pilots and they say the avg hiring mins are quite high. Any one have any advice.

 

[mxflyer]

If I were you I'd stay on the path your on now. Finish your degree, countinue working on your ratings in the meantime. There will be many ups and downs in the industry. Having a good technical degree will get income coming in if you get caught up in a down. As far as a 2012 hiring frenzy, who knows if it happens or how big it will be. I wouldn't dump getting your degree in hopes that there will be one.

 

[popaviator]

I have been reading a few "should I stay in this industry &/or should I still try to be an airline pilot?" threads. It has gotten me thinking about a few things. a JC member stated that around 2012 when all the 65 yr olds retire, the airlines could be in a feeding frenzy. I am 20 years old about to turn 21 and I am still working on my PPL. I have a yr and a half left of college and plan on doing my training full time once I graduate. Will the airlines still be hiring after the first big wave, or should I start going hardcore with my training now. Flying corporate is a very big option however I have talked to some pilots and they say the avg hiring mins are quite high. Any one have any advice.

It's completely up to you. I went the quick route and so far it has worked quite well for me. I went through flight training at 20 and have been instructing for about a year now. I feel like one of the lucky ones, I've got a lot of friends who went through flight training and are still unemployed as pilots. I really don't think there is a need to rush through flight training, but it can be done and it might work for you. PM me if you have any questions, and good luck

 

[jtrain609]

I'll tell ya what, if I could go back and do things over again, here's how I would have done it.

I started on my private in the summer of 1998 when I was 16. By the time I started college in the fall of 2001, I had my private pilots license all finished up. Shortly after I entered school, 9/11 happened and I don't think any of us knew what was going on.

Looking back, I would have taken that next summer and gone to a program like ATP and knocked out the rest of my training up through CFI/II/MEI, came back to school and instructed. I graduated in 2005, and would have had 1,500-2,000 hours. From there, I would have tried to get on at a place like Pinnacle, which had a quick upgrade. After that, I would have tried to get into the first class at Delta when they started hiring.

I'm pretty much detailing the life of PeanuckleCRJ, who went through this exact process as I understand it. He trained hard, and worked hard when the industry took a downturn, and was rewarded for all his hard work.

Now is the time to be training, and if you're gonna go balls out and do it, then as far as I'm concerned go big.

The other side of that is that I enjoyed college, met my current wife, and wouldn't trade all those experiences for anything.

In the end it's your decision, though if it were me, I'd go big one way or the other.

 

[WacoFan]

2012 is only the first year of massive retirements I believe (please correct me if I am wrong).

This makes the assumption that everyone that stayed past 60 actually works till age 65 (can hold a medical, decides not to retire earlier, etc). My understanding is that 2012 is the first year of "x" amount of years that will see large scale retirements. I am not sure how many years this will go for (probably closely corelate to the hiring boom in the 60's - how ever many years that occured is probably however many years the retirements will). I bet ATN has numbers on this. Either way, 2012 is only the starting year so I wouldn't worry too much about missing the 2012 window.

 

[drunkenbeagle]

2012 is only the first year of massive retirements I believe (please correct me if I am wrong).

Well, as many of the CFIs here can attest to, there aren't a ton of US flight students right now either, that should help matters.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a pilot shortage though, the average captain at a US major is 50, the average FO is 41 (ALPA's numbers). If you want to look at it one way, more than half of the captains at US majors will retire in the in the next 15 years.

 

[ahsmatt7]

thanks for the advice everyone. My initial thoughts were to go to ATP and finish up during a summer and then come back to school like I normally would but instruct while I was attending school. Either way, I am getting my BBA in Business Management. I applied to some business internships and one was with SWA. I just would like to know that my back up plan is promising however sometimes it seems more like flying is a back up plan. However, reading the responses, IT seems like 121 is still a viable career given the time I get/if I get hired.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

I bet ATN has numbers on this. Either way, 2012 is only the starting year so I wouldn't worry too much about missing the 2012 window.

Retirements start big in December 2012, and go on indefinitely. Delta has as many as 800 retirements per year in some years. But pretty much all of the majors have 300+ retirements per year, so you're looking at 2000+ retirements per year just at the legacies. This doesn't account for any growth, which we can safely assume will begin in a few years as the economy rebounds. I honestly think we'll see things again as they were in 1999-2001, when pilots were getting offers from DAL, AMR, and UAL simultaneously with less than 3,000 total time. Anyone that's finishing their ratings in the next 2-3 years should be set up well for a quick climb up the career ladder.

 

[ahsmatt7]

Retirements start big in December 2012, and go on indefinitely. Delta has as many as 800 retirements per year in some years. But pretty much all of the majors have 300+ retirements per year, so you're looking at 2000+ retirements per year just at the legacies. This doesn't account for any growth, which we can safely assume will begin in a few years as the economy rebounds. I honestly think we'll see things again as they were in 1999-2001, when pilots were getting offers from DAL, AMR, and UAL simultaneously with less than 3,000 total time. Anyone that's finishing their ratings in the next 2-3 years should be set up well for a quick climb up the career ladder.

Wow that's way more than I expected. Don't get me wrong, I don't want some wam bam thank you mam job at a regional then upgrade and what not. I just want a job with a reasonable upgrade time. How about this scenario, say I get on with a regional, I upgrade in 6 years. Would I have the possibility of going to a major within 12 years? Would it be shorter or longer?



Matt

 

[NJA_Capt]

Well, as many of the CFIs here can attest to, there aren't a ton of US flight students right now either, that should help matters.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a pilot shortage though, the average captain at a US major is 50, the average FO is 41 (ALPA's numbers).

Perhaps students are hard to find because so many schools are competing for students. ATP advertises that they issue 450 FAA pilot certificates per month. That's over 5000 new pilots/yr from ATP alone! It's hard to maintain that mass, especially between dozens of other flight schools. Figure that all of them want to pump out similar numbers but the market only requires a few thousand per year....if any. By the time hiring begins, the market has a backlog of 10s of thousands. People used to average 6-8 years of flying (post college) before earning an airline seat. Now pilots "expect" an airline seat as their first flying job.

For the last 10 years, student starts have averaged 60,000 per year. New commercials average about 9000 per year. New ATP issuances average approx 5000 per year.

I have been hearing pilot shortage fables since 1984. There hasn't been, isn't and won't be one.......until we can get rid of the pilot mills. More pilots are being produced than the market requires.

http://www.atpflightschool.com/news/2009-02-02_new_locations.html
http://www.aopa.org/whatsnew/trend.html

 

[drunkenbeagle]

Perhaps students are hard to find because so many schools are competing for students. ATP advertises that they issue 450 FAA pilot certificates per month. That's over 5000 new pilots/yr from ATP alone! It's hard to maintain that mass, especially between dozens of other flight schools. Figure that all of them want to pump out similar numbers but the market only requires a few thousand per year....if any.

Well, is that new "pilots," or new "certificates." They can count a student certificate, private certificate, commercial certificate, instructor certificate, etc... You might be counting the same pilot several times. Based on the AOPAs total of 20,000 total new private certificates, ATP would have trained 25% of the new pilot population in 2008. Obviously not the case. If these are marketing numbers, they are going to count every time a piece of plastic is in the mail.

The better number to go by would be Instructor ratings issued, since anyone likely to get an airline job is probably going to have all of these. At about 4,600 per year, we can divide that by 3 (CFI-A/CFI-I/MEI). So that's about 1,500 net new pilots likely to be looking for airline jobs at some point in the future. I don't think looking at ATPs issued is a good gauge, since lot's of these will end up flying part 91/135, and some already worked for an airline anyway.

And remember, a good chunk of those are going to people like me, that will instruct on weekends, but are unlikely to ever take an airline job.

 

[SlumTodd_Millionaire]

How about this scenario, say I get on with a regional, I upgrade in 6 years. Would I have the possibility of going to a major within 12 years? Would it be shorter or longer?

Absolutely. It could easily be shorter, even. I went from wet commercial certificate to major airline in less than seven years, and much of that time spanned the post-9/11 pilot surplus.

 

[JoelT]

I finished my ratings summer of 1997 and started instructing. I graduated Auburn in winter 1999 with about 1000 hours then, I got my first airline job that summer flying for Pace Airlines.

After training I was promptly furloughed, went back to instructing then was hired by Continental Express (XJT didn't exist then) in spring of 2000.

Had 9/11 not have happened then my first interview with Delta would have been in the spring or summer of 2002 (according to Plato). So, that would have been Commercial ticket to Delta in five years.

It ended up being ten years though but, my current seniority is roughly equal to where it would have been had I been hired in 2002 since no hiring took place between those years.

 

[PA44-LUV]

I thought the world was going to blow up in 2012.

 

[scramjet]

Interesting perspectives. I'm graduating college in May but wrapping up the vast majority of my class work in mid March and plan on finally getting back to flight training around that point. I'm going to try to move as fast as I can in terms of getting my certificates from that point onwards. I don't have a job lined up after school..well anything, really...and I'm young so I figure it's the perfect time especially if the pilot demand comes about as some predict.

 

[nuball5]

I am also optimistic about the future, but I know nothing is guaranteed. As we saw on Christmas with the failed bomb attempt on that NWA A330, one catastrophic event can change everything.

 

[ahsmatt7]

I think after hearing all of this info, I can have a little hope. Its refreshing to hear this news.

 

[PGT]

If you're 20, and get your ratings in 5 years, that still leaves you with 40 YEARS of flying until you're forced to retire.

 

[mxflyer]

If you're 20, and get your ratings in 5 years, that still leaves you with 40 YEARS of flying until you're forced to retire.

IMO 40 years is way too long, at least in airlines. I'd like to be into a different realm of aviation before I'm forced out.

 

[ahsmatt7]

If you're 20, and get your ratings in 5 years, that still leaves you with 40 YEARS of flying until you're forced to retire.

I understand. However I would like that the first 20 not be spent scraping money from under the couch cushions to pay bills. If the airlines are not going to be a viable option then I will pursue another career in aviation or just go into a career outside of aviation and fly for a hobby.