Forbes article on the upcoming Pilot/Mechanic shortage.

[DE727UPS]

Everyone said I was nuts going into aviation.

Pan Am, Eastern, Braniff and a few others sent their pilots out for a permanent recess. And there was a deep recession going on.

What did everyone in Hanford want you to do then?

 

[Rocketman99]

He was s'posed to go work for Wac Arnolds.

 

[Whatusername]

Dozens every year, going back for decades. The better question is, name a year or years when there ever was really a pilot shortage.

The truth is to keep flying, if this is what you want to do. Look for and examine all areas of aviation. There is no end all be all in flying. More than one road to fulfillment, a lasting career, QOL, a decent retirement, money, satisfaction and happiness. You have no control over what large entities/corporations will do, only what you will do and how you react. Find your niche, keep trucking along and enjoy it instead of worrying about all the what ifs. It's the journey and the process that matters. Where you will wind up....who knows for sure. There are no more guarantees. Life is just like that. It's what it is. Even those on here who you think have it made, complain, worry and whine.

Attitude is everything. THAT is something you can control. There are always opportunities here and there. You just have to be patient, open to them and willing to try something new. Meanwhile, build a personal life. THAT will sustain you when things go to crap work wise and matters far more anyways. And quit worrying or putting so much credence in some stupid article on line. Go fly a plane, any plane. Go kiss your partner, have supper with your family or call them on the phone, hang with some good friends, enjoy your dog or cat and hug your kids. Your family and friends will last a lifetime, a career will not. Be thankful for what you have and what you have accomplished thus far.

Cripes, y'all going to have as many grey hairs as I do, if you keep this up.

Agreed in several areas.

1. There has been an upcoming pilot shortage since '03 (or 1903 for those non y2k compliant types).

2. Ten years ago if you told me there is no end all be all I would have looked at you odd (I was an idiot that wanted to fly a 727 for UAL). BUT there is truth to this. There are some badass flight jobs that don't involve a 7 series Boeing that offer good QOL and time off.

3. I'm learning that attitude = altitude. Be positive meet people and socialize and you might go far. Granted I got the attitude. And I'm really trying to work on the socialization part as I going at it alone = dead end.

4. Eh as far family and personal F/O go I can't comment on that. I'm single and free .

 

[texas_pilot]

Truckin is paying decent & freight companies can't keep enough drivers, there's a lot of job hopping and $5k sign on is common. Gub/mint allows hiring foreigners if locals can't get the job done.
The oil industry has McDonalds in Odessa Tx paying $15 an hour to start.
Even so, average US CDL driver age is 55, no age limits- pass your physical, keep trucking. So, my thought is this- they simulate to create an industry shortage and import foreign workers.
Now, since this week, unless you're a criminal, illegals aliens won't be deported since Congress didn't pass immigration reform- thanks Obama!!!.
I stopped to check my oil on I 80 on the west coast. Grabbed a trash paper out of the trash to wipe the oil off my dipstick. Chinese!
Just sayin.,,,

 

[ScorpionStinger]

FOLKS, no matter what... Don't judge too quickly. Not everything is as it seems.

Kinda like what @Derg said. Various examples. ENJOY ALL

 

[cezzna]

There is no pilot shortage,of pilots short on pilotage. Landing at wrong airports and such.

 

[Whatusername]

Truckin is paying decent & freight companies can't keep enough drivers, there's a lot of job hopping and $5k sign on is common. Gub/mint allows hiring foreigners if locals can't get the job done.
The oil industry has McDonalds in Odessa Tx paying $15 an hour to start.
Even so, average US CDL driver age is 55, no age limits- pass your physical, keep trucking.

Not trying to gripe but I thought DesertDog71 said that truckers tend to die off at 61 due to health issues.

 

[Boris Badenov]

Well I guess the great trucker shortage can be expected around 2020...

 

[jwp_145]

The mechanic shortage is much more real than the pilot shortage. My father and brother are both AA employees in TUlsa and there is a massive generation gap out there.

 

[Roger Roger]

The mechanic shortage is much more real than the pilot shortage. My father and brother are both AA employees in TUlsa and there is a massive generation gap out there.

The problem is, nobody wants to deal with the risk to health and certificates working nights to get to the brass ring job at a major, only to have that major outsource your job so you can go back to the bottom of a list working nights. Pay might be decent in maintenance but at least from where I sit it looks like QOL absolutely sucks unless you've been somewhere for 30 years and are near the top of a seniority list.

 

[jgheggie]

The problem is, nobody wants to deal with the risk to health and certificates working nights to get to the brass ring job at a major, only to have that major outsource your job so you can go back to the bottom of a list working nights. Pay might be decent in maintenance but at least from where I sit it looks like QOL absolutely sucks unless you've been somewhere for 30 years and are near the top of a seniority list.

Couldn't be any worse then commuting on reserve for over a year as a regional pilot. Then 5-7 year upgrade time. Then how long till you touch a major? Chances of getting furloughed??

Idk...the whole industry stinks! But at least the view is better as a pilot

 

[Beep]

Couldn't be any worse then commuting on reserve for over a year as a regional pilot. Then 5-7 year upgrade time. Then how long till you touch a major? Chances of getting furloughed??

Idk...the whole industry stinks! But at least the view is better as a pilot

Actually it would be worse, mechanic schedules aren't the same as pilot schedules ( not exactly a live wherever and just commute kind of job ) so it would leave you in a worse position than you'd be in as a pilot.

 

[jgheggie]

Actually it would be worse, mechanic schedules aren't the same as pilot schedules ( not exactly a live wherever and just commute kind of job ) so it would leave you in a worse position than you'd be in as a pilot.

That's subjective to opinion. I would venture to guess that mechanics live where they work (like you said). How is that not better than commuting? Pilots are willing to live in domicile on reserve then move home when they get a better commuting schedule. I would imagine that a lot of mechanics are from the domicile where they work. I don't think a little kid from Denver dreams of being a mechanic for delta and moving to Atlanta when he grows up. Again, subjective.

 

[Beep]

I would imagine that a lot of mechanics are from the domicile where they work. I don't think a little kid from Denver dreams of being a mechanic for delta and moving to Atlanta when he grows up. Again, subjective.

Exactly my point, then that mechanic is one of many that are looking for a job in a saturated market if the company decides to close that shop and outsource. I understand this happens now and then, and that some people are able to find another job locally, but the others?
Not quite an apples to apples comparison here.

 

[jgheggie]

Exactly my point, then that mechanic is one of many that are looking for a job in a saturated market if the company decides to close that shop and outsource. I understand this happens now and then, and that some people are able to find another job locally, but the others?
Not quite an apples to apples comparison here.

True. I guess at least as pilots we can commute. The 95% of us who are not from hub cities usually learn this early (training). I have always been a little bummed out knowing that I will never be based in my home city. But pilot schedules allow us to live elsewhere.

You're right...if a mechanic base closes then where do they go?? There's only so many small GA mechanic jobs in any one city.

Which brings me back to my first point...the whole industry sucks!

 

[Beep]

True. I guess at least as pilots we can commute. The 95% of us who are not from hub cities usually learn this early (training). I have always been a little bummed out knowing that I will never be based in my home city. But pilot schedules allow us to live elsewhere.

You're right...if a mechanic base closes then where do they go?? There's only so many small GA mechanic jobs in any one city.

Which brings me back to my first point...the whole industry sucks!

Yup!

 

[knot4u]

Exactly my point, then that mechanic is one of many that are looking for a job in a saturated market if the company decides to close that shop and outsource. I understand this happens now and then, and that some people are able to find another job locally, but the others?
Not quite an apples to apples comparison here.

Many A/P schools have closed in the last decade due to lack of enrollment. Young people aren't really interested anymore. A large portion of the "new" A/Ps are ex-military that were assigned to maintenance and gained their experience that way. With the reductions in the military that number is now smaller. There is a lot of experienced mechanics approaching retirement and a small number of "new" mechanics coming.
My experience is mostly corporate so I can't speak to the airline mechanic situation, but on the corporate side experience is beginning to pay dividends.

 

[Beep]

Many A/P schools have closed in the last decade due to lack of enrollment. Young people aren't really interested anymore. A large portion of the "new" A/Ps are ex-military that were assigned to maintenance and gained their experience that way. With the reductions in the military that number is now smaller. There is a lot of experienced mechanics approaching retirement and a small number of "new" mechanics coming.
My experience is mostly corporate so I can't speak to the airline mechanic situation, but on the corporate side experience is beginning to pay dividends.

I feel fortunate that we have some great mechanics working with us, and have another group locally that we use when our guys have a full plate.

 

[rwgb1984]

Pilot shortage or not the author touches briefly on the expense associated with primary certificates/ratings, etc... but fails to mention the increase in minimum quals for major/regional carriers (IE. ATP/1500hr rule.)

Granted, no rational person would buy their way to 1500 (well... most) but even getting to a point where you can start earning income and building time is expensive as all get out anyway! I know that there are cheaper ways around the initial training phase but at the end of the day bottom tier jobs seem to be either regionals (with poor pay and QOL) or "other" flying gigs that short you on time (Multi, Turbine, Turbine PIC, etc....)

After digging a massive debt hole for myself and accepting full responsibility for my decisions I would rather try and get into something where I can make halfway decent money now, pay cash for certs. and ratings (duh), and pick part-time or side work doing flying that I may actually enjoy doing because I don't have to.

Sorry for the rant, the whole pilot shortage thing has been buzzing around since I started flying in '09. And to be honest, there is probably a small amount of bitterness associated as I have struggled to finish a CSEL cert for the last two years and all the while I've watched the finish line get pushed further and further away.

 

[jynxyjoe]

Pilot shortage or not the author touches briefly on the expense associated with primary certificates/ratings, etc... but fails to mention the increase in minimum quals for major/regional carriers (IE. ATP/1500hr rule.)

Granted, no rational person would buy their way to 1500 (well... most) but even getting to a point where you can start earning income and building time is expensive as all get out anyway! I know that there are cheaper ways around the initial training phase but at the end of the day bottom tier jobs seem to be either regionals (with poor pay and QOL) or "other" flying gigs that short you on time (Multi, Turbine, Turbine PIC, etc....)

After digging a massive debt hole for myself and accepting full responsibility for my decisions I would rather try and get into something where I can make halfway decent money now, pay cash for certs. and ratings (duh), and pick part-time or side work doing flying that I may actually enjoy doing because I don't have to.

Sorry for the rant, the whole pilot shortage thing has been buzzing around since I started flying in '09. And to be honest, there is probably a small amount of bitterness associated as I have struggled to finish a CSEL cert for the last two years and all the while I've watched the finish line get pushed further and further away.

When I got out of college in '03 you could buy a job at Gulfstream or if you had the mins- 1000 hours turbine time- you could get an interview with Comair.

Check out Myrtle Beach, a lot of guys from where I'm at are getting tons of SE turbine in a Metro or something at some jump school. They even have a paid crash pad.