FAA: Number of Student Pilots Down

Wait...no student pilots means...no competition to get to the airlines! Someone tell ATP! Dooom!

And I bet you many people read similar stories and came to that conclusion.
 
This was posted earlier in the month.

I still want to know why the FAA is putting this type of statement out? This isn't like them.

Joe
 
How long would a pilot shortage last? The length of the fastest zero-to-hero program.

There will never be a pilot shortage until the rules are changes.
 
Hey! If its on the internetz, then it has to be true!

Around the early 90s when I started flying, these same types of articles and claims were being spread. I still haven't seen a pilot shortage and it has been nearly twenty years. I'm sure the pilot shortage hoax was going on long before that.
 
I haven't been flying long enough to spot any trends in the number of student pilots, but I have heard that there are fewer these days. Although judging from the number of buddies on furlough and the few airline doors I've had slammed shut on me it seems like there won't be much of a problem with a few less pilots running around. I'm just not sure if I'm relieved or worried. Could go both ways, ya?
 
I was talking with a DPE and he has def seen a reduced number of student pilots. I guess it would make sense, the economy was/is down, cost of flight training is up, and there are very few to none good jobs as a professional pilots. I doubt it means pilot shortage, it just means people are seeking different career choices.
 
Clocks said:
How long would a pilot shortage last? The length of the fastest zero-to-hero program.

There will never be a pilot shortage until the rules are changes.
Click to expand...

There's no question that new pilot starts are down significantly, particularly when you consider the amount of Indian and Chinese students who are only here (the US) for training. In Palm Beach County alone, I have seen four flight schools close down in the past couple of years. My old flight school is still plugging along, but they are much slower compared to when I was teaching there. This is primarily due to cost, lack of loans, and terrible job prospects.

As far as the "zero-to-hero" program, I don't see how that can work very quickly with the new FAA rules for regional airline pilots. I know it's still up for debate, but at a minimum it's around 800 - 1,000 hours right? Plus there's still a possibility of requiring the ATP. Either way, these requirements will effectively eliminate the zero to hero pilot.

Will this equate to a pilot shortage? I think it might for some of the uber crappy regionals, IF they are forced to select from 1,000 - 2,000+ hr candidates in a normal job market. But if the work rules and pay are appropriate (starting pay at $35k, etc) with some of the better regionals, there's more than enough of us out in the CFI/corporate/charter/freight world that will be glad to jump in. But I sure as heck am not doing it for $20k/yr. That needs to change. Right now that will only attract the hungry, entry level pilot. There's plenty of those around, and always will be.

So will there be a pilot shortage? There might be one for experienced pilots, but never for low time commercial pilots.
 
Will there be a shortage? Maybe. It depends on three things: growth, attrition and costs.

If the airlines grow AND the large amount of scheduled retirements that are going to happen towards the middle and end of the decade continuing until the mid 2020s AND costs to fly are still high I think there will be a shortage and ab-initio simulator training will be the way to train new pilots. Its already being tried by Asian airlines and I think will become very common in countries without the GA infrastructure like we have.

If airlines remain relatively stagnant in growth AND schedule retirements occur AND training costs remains high, there will be a glut of low time new hires. The airlines will be able to get any hard FO hiring rule amended when flying public complains to their Congressman about the lack of pilots and cancelations of their flights due to government regulations. People got pissed in 2007 when NWA had all those cancelations due to lack of crews. Imagine if all airlines had that with fresh commercial rated pilots on the streets that dont have FO minimums mandated by law? People would demand those pilots be trained and put into the flight deck so they could have their flight completed at a cheap ticket cost. We would be back to zero to hero, probably funded by government stimulus money to bail out the airlines lack of pay to attract new pilots.

If airlines contract in size by a large amount AND scheduled retirements happen AND costs are high to fly then hiring would be limited due to the contraction of service and only high time pilots, the few that stayed the course of time building, will get hired.

If the costs of flying go down then there will never be a shortage. The lower the cost, the higher the supply of pilots.
 
Rules do need to change. I believe that every pilot should not be stereotyped by the general public and ourselves as the airline or corporate jet pilot career driven pilot. Aviation needs to divide into different training branches somewhat how doctors are today. Get your private in single engine then start a different training page instead of the "same as it ever was" way of training pilots. We then may be able to keep ahead of the game and not cut each others throats in order to get ahead of what we REALLY want to do in aviation on an individual basses? Do the number of airline/jet driven pilots really out weight the "this is a pay your dues type job"? Yeah, this is a big curve ball, I know but when they say "shortage of pilots" it seems very broad IMHO.
 
Believe it or not we currently have a shortage of CFIs in the ELP area. If I desired to I could work 8 hours a day at $50/hour. All the full time CFIs are calling each other to see if someone can cover a student. Not sure how long it will last. Maybe it's just a short blip.
 
Starting in 1976, I have heard theory after theory after theory of how a pilot shortage would manifest in the near future. If you define a "shortage" as the lack of willing and able applicants to fill open positions thus driving up wages, a "shortage" has yet to occur.

It's a given there will always be "willing" applicants at any wage including zero.

"able" is the only possible restraint to pilot supply. It has been interesting over the years to watch the definition of able fluctuate from a big fat logbook full of time and a squeaky clean record all the way down to the FAA minimums and don't ask, don't tell. Applicant requirements that "float" based on supply have thus far prevented any shortage. Although raising the absolute bottom would present the possibility of a future shortage, I contend it will only add fuel to the push for the FAA to take a hard look at a US adoption of a MPL training track. I have no doubt the airlines will attempt to organize their efforts to see this happen.

I expect to see a path where an interview/job offer is made contingent on the applicant completing a prescribed, applicant-funded MPL training program. Not extremely far removed ( in their mind ) from the way Southwest does business today.
 
Blackhawk said:
Believe it or not we currently have a shortage of CFIs in the ELP area. If I desired to I could work 8 hours a day at $50/hour. All the full time CFIs are calling each other to see if someone can cover a student. Not sure how long it will last. Maybe it's just a short blip.
Click to expand...

As stated a shortage is where you can raise the price and continue to sell your goods or services. Raise your hourly rate to that of the local car dealership mechanic ( $100 per hour ). Report back. If you are still turning students away then I will believe you do in fact have a shortage down there.
 
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