I'm kinda curious what it would take for people to change their tune and start coming to Endeavor. The only way upgrades can ever happen again is if the airline can hire. Nobody wants to be hired because there's no upgrades. Chicken and the egg.
This is despite the guarantee that we will lose 150ish/year or more to Delta alone. Would a defined 200 fleet plan do it? Would a flow do it? Would pay do it? Some combination?
I'm personally not convinced pay would attract new people. It might retain some of us sorry suckers still here but that's about it.
I dunno. Honest questions. Not advocating anyone comes here and FWIW I'll take the first non-regional gig I can find out of this place. Working on ANG right now.
Based on how it was when I was there, and the "changes" I've heard about since I left, nothing short of a complete cultural shift coupled with a new pay scale would start to do it. The "legacy" guys from Pinnacle pre-merger are beat down from how they've been treated for half a decade or more and don't see many if any changes to the status quo. At least no positive ones. The Mesaba guys have just seen more and more things taken away since their bankruptcy, followed by being owned again, followed by being sold and merged into their #1 competitor. Even with a lot of the guys they had in charge at Mesaba, the Pinnacle corporate mentality seems to be sticking around. The Colgan guys pre-merger likely fall somewhere in there as well after seeing their entire airline parted out like an old car. The guys hired post merger that were happy to be there have since seen through the mist and are either catching on to the fact that the quick upgrade is going backwards and/or better regionals exist. So, they're punching out since they don't have a lot of seniority to lose.
I don't think a true flow will happen again. Mesaba had it, it's gone. I don't think Delta will bring it back as the closest they seem willing to get/give is the SSP/EtD programs. I'm sure management pushed hard for a flow in lieu of that in order to get higher seniority guys off the payroll, and it was shot down. I also don't see Delta guaranteeing a fleet size. That takes the whipsaw and cost control away from them. If it becomes cheaper to shutter the airline and re-bid the flying to other FFD carriers, the BoD will send it that direction. They answer to the shareholders in the end, so whatever is going to benefit the profit margin is the way it'll go. If they can continue to use Endeavor as a whipsaw against other DCI carriers, then that's actually an advantage for them.
The pay has GOT to go up, but we've already seen numerous times management has said "We need this, but we can't afford to pay you anymore." The fact that there are 7 year FOs out there capped on a 4 year pay scale is criminal. With the amount of movement, every FO there will top out before they even have the seniority to bid on upgrade unless something drastic changes. The only guys NOT capped on the FO side are the guys that downgraded and are still getting CA pay. The only reason that deal was worked out was to keep them from having to cancel flights during the summer since a large majority of those guys might have walked rather than go back to FO rates. I know I had drawn a line in the sand when I was there as to what I was willing to work for, and the topped out FO pay, even with the seniority, was far below my line in the sand. Everyone's is different, I'm sure, but mine was based on "Where would I make more money? A ride operator on Space Mt or a topped out FO?" Based on current FO rates, after subtracting the cost for a crashpad, I'd be making more money pushing buttons at Disney than I would as an FO at Endeavor.
