Dubai Airshow

Simple, you can't compete. Just have to work with them or around them, and make sure they dont' expand too far in with 5th freedom routes. Though the majority of Gulf carriers have no plans for interline connections anytime soon, so working with them isn't really an option. One has to wonder, 140 A380s for Emirates...those can't all be routes from Dubai...
 
WOW. Speak of the devil.

Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways on Sunday said it had bought a 33.3 per cent stake in Swiss carrier Darwin Airline, adding to the company’s portfolio of minority stakes in global airlines.
Etihad said following completion of the deal, Darwin will be rebranded as Etihad Regional, the companies said in a joint statement at the Dubai Airshow.
The deal will allow Etihad to connect to secondary markets in Europe where it does not already reach, Etihad chief executive James Hogan said at a press conference to announce the deal.
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Article here.

Can you imagine if Emirates had a bunch of Republic 190s connecting people from JFK to Florida, the midwest, and the North East? Geez.
 
Good articles ALA, thanks.

The B777X orders are for delivery starting in 2020. Those airplanes are more realistically replacements for the current B777s. In 2020, if A6-EMD was still in the fleet it would be 23 years old. The first 777-300ER joined the fleet in 2005 so would be 15 years old. The B777X would also be another good reason to cancel the A350 orders. If not the whole order, at least a portion of it since the two types pretty much compete against each other. One will be better and my bet would be on the B777X.

There is a limit to the size that the Gulf carriers can obtain primarily because of airport and airspace congestion.

Competition with them is difficult, but the 787, 777X, and A350 will open up some real possibilities, IMHO. As world air traffic grows it will become more viable, both from an aircraft capability and passenger demand standpoint, to offer non-stop point to point service that bypasses the Gulf. The 787 is an ideal aircraft for that as it can fly long thin routes very economically.

There will still be a demand for the hubs in the Gulf as their geographical position makes them a perfect stopover point on many city pairs. That and a not insignificant percentage of passengers enjoy the leg stretch after 7-8 hours over a non-stop 16 hour flight in coach. Price is always key though.

What we haven't seen much of, but will inevitably come is the low cost long haul model to compete against the established players. Singapore is starting it with Scoot. Qantas started it with Jet* International and the UK charter airlines do it. Not a great thought because the service quality of the Gulf carriers is the last vestiges of the bygone era of romance in airline travel. I know I'm going to miss my first class seats on EK after I leave.



Typhoonpilot
 
typhoonpilot said:
What we haven't seen much of, but will inevitably come is the low cost long haul model to compete against the established players. Singapore is starting it with Scoot. Qantas started it with Jet* International and the UK charter airlines do it.
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Meanwhile in North America, Sun Country and now WestJet have tried low-fare North-America to Europe on 737s(SY to LGW, WS to DUB):p
 
typhoonpilot said:
Good articles ALA, thanks.

The B777X orders are for delivery starting in 2020. Those airplanes are more realistically replacements for the current B777s. In 2020, if A6-EMD was still in the fleet it would be 23 years old. The first 777-300ER joined the fleet in 2005 so would be 15 years old. The B777X would also be another good reason to cancel the A350 orders. If not the whole order, at least a portion of it since the two types pretty much compete against each other. One will be better and my bet would be on the B777X.

There is a limit to the size that the Gulf carriers can obtain primarily because of airport and airspace congestion.

Competition with them is difficult, but the 787, 777X, and A350 will open up some real possibilities, IMHO. As world air traffic grows it will become more viable, both from an aircraft capability and passenger demand standpoint, to offer non-stop point to point service that bypasses the Gulf. The 787 is an ideal aircraft for that as it can fly long thin routes very economically.

There will still be a demand for the hubs in the Gulf as their geographical position makes them a perfect stopover point on many city pairs. That and a not insignificant percentage of passengers enjoy the leg stretch after 7-8 hours over a non-stop 16 hour flight in coach. Price is always key though.

What we haven't seen much of, but will inevitably come is the low cost long haul model to compete against the established players. Singapore is starting it with Scoot. Qantas started it with Jet* International and the UK charter airlines do it. Not a great thought because the service quality of the Gulf carriers is the last vestiges of the bygone era of romance in airline travel. I know I'm going to miss my first class seats on EK after I leave.



Typhoonpilot
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I very much agree. What I also find interesting is that while other carriers, especially in the US, have been focused on mergers, bankruptcies, alliances, capacity reductions, recovery from 9/11, consolidations,no frills, etc., the Gulf has been focusing on adding more routes and destinations, updating and adding to their fleets, customer service, more luxurious aircraft interiors, and have completely distanced themselves form the multi-layers of existing alliance systems. They have now ordered more widebodies than any carrier in this country can even begin to dream of. They are concentrating along a dedicated path which they view in the long term of years and not what will happen in a fiscal quarter. By funneling connecting traffic through their geographically advantageous hubs, which will put more than 90% of the world’s population within non-stop flight range, they will capture a larger share of the international long haul market. They are already connected with Europe, the US, and Australia, and have their eyes on South America, Africa, Asia for further expansion. Going to be very interesting to watch this unfold.
 
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I find this troubling...

"In a sign of the Gulf's increasing power in the industry, Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said he was confident of a shift in stance in the West that would allow the group to fly more of its planes to airports there.

"We are buying a product from their countries. So why would they not allow us to fly to these airports? If they don't, they can take their planes back," he said."


It's going to be the next struggle in the industry..stopping the expansion. I don't think our Gov't could give a crap about supporting the US aviation industry either. Hopefully I'm wrong.
 
Would you guys move to the Middle East and fly for any of the gulf airlines that bought these aircrafts? Personally I would love to fly for emirates because I'm single and they provide awesome personal benefits.
 
USAFplt said:
I find this troubling...

"In a sign of the Gulf's increasing power in the industry, Emirates Chairman Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum said he was confident of a shift in stance in the West that would allow the group to fly more of its planes to airports there.

"We are buying a product from their countries. So why would they not allow us to fly to these airports? If they don't, they can take their planes back," he said."


It's going to be the next struggle in the industry..stopping the expansion. I don't think our Gov't could give a crap about supporting the US aviation industry either. Hopefully I'm wrong.
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I may be completely bonkers but here's what I think:

In the 70's during the first peak oil (before horizontal drilling) the Gulf states had to look at the stores of oil dwindling and if they wanted to go back to tents and goat herding (to put it rudely). They realized they didn't. The next 40 years were spent taking some part of the money being earned by the state and reinvesting in their economies with the expressed goal of going from the 15th century to the 20th (and 21st) century. Those of you following since the 90's may remember such strange demands as Saudi's demanding Dubai have a final assembly plant for the A-320 series. Shipping lane royalties. Maneuvering of high tech design and manufacturing jobs into the Gulf states (no idea if any of that was successful). I'd be willing to bet the next couple years will see a ton of high tech medical research firms trying to start up there with state support. Because?

Much of their power is supply and politically based, and it's very likely that that power will never be greater than today and the next 5 years. I think all the Gulf states are a little panicked, and as such, you're going to find a variety of approaches to the next looming problem- the West might be energy independent in 7 years. Demand for your product (mid-east oil) goes down, that means less revenue. It turns out 43 years wasn't enough to create a self sustaining and fully functional economy based on industry besides oil, and that means the QOL of your country is going to go down. I would think it would go down severely, what does that mean? Pittsburgh lost its steel and recovered nicely, that's a happy ending. Detroit lost it's auto manufacturing and things got real tough. Some of that is coming back but Detroit didn't bet heavily on medical and IT tech.

http://articles.washingtonpost.com/...369_1_pittsburgh-area-transformation-steelers
Might be worth reading except replace Detroit with all the oil states.

I think you'll see a lot of kicking and screaming and the US and other western states are used to having to listen to the Gulf and it's concerns. We don't have to play footsie much longer thanks to frac'ing.
 
ChasenSFO said:
WOW. Speak of the devil.



Article here.

Can you imagine if Emirates had a bunch of Republic 190s connecting people from JFK to Florida, the midwest, and the North East? Geez.
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Scary thought...Maybe itll be 100s of CS300s flying as Etiahad/Qatar/Emirates express.
 
Jynxyjoe, I hope your right but this isn't the 70s or even the 90s anymore. Most of our oil hasn't come from the mid east in a while now. I'm sure they could sell plenty to china, India, etc....
 
HJB said:
Jynxyjoe, I hope your right but this isn't the 70s or even the 90s anymore. Most of our oil hasn't come from the mid east in a while now. I'm sure they could sell plenty to china, India, etc....
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Well, sorta. We use the light crude from the Gulf to make everything. We buy the cheaper heavier stuff but you always need the light stuff. That's just a product of the economy. Other states got competitive on price with the USA, which isn't anymore, but was the biggest buyer.

Anyhow, I don't refine oil for a living but Foreign Affairs and the Economist have spent years trying to educate everyone and that's what I've taken from it in my readings. The we really do rely on the Gulf more than politicians pretend.
 
China surpassed the U.S. as importer of Persian Gulf crude several years ago. It's is on track to overtake the U.S. this year as the world's No. 1 buyer of oil from OPEC. China's OPEC-crude imports during this year's first half averaged 3.7 million barrels a day, versus 3.5 million for the U.S. One report I read stated that China is slated to account for half of the world's oil demand growth. Then there's India and the rest of Asia. I don't see the domination of the middle east in terms of being producers/exporters diminishing any time soon.

jynxyjoe said:
The we really do rely on the Gulf more than politicians pretend.
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Absolutely.

From Pickens:

U.S. On Track to Spend $400 Billion on Imported Oil in 2013

"Despite impressive gains in domestic oil production, the U.S. is on track to spend roughly $400 billion on imported oil in 2013, which is roughly the same amount that was spent last year. In 2012, the U.S. imported a total of 3.9 billion barrels of petroleum at a cost of $434 billion.

That’s one of the many conclusions that can be gleaned from recently released oil import numbers. Here are some more.

In March 2013, a whopping 296 million barrels - or 52 percent of the petroleum consumed in the U.S. - was foreign oil. At a per barrel price of more than $108, that works out to over $32 billion - more than $1 billion a day - or per minute cost of $719,000.

And in January 2013, total imports were even higher: 304 million barrels. Not surprisingly, a hefty percentage of that imported oil came from OPEC countries: 39 percent. The bottom line is that Americans spent $13.5 billion on OPEC oil in January."

and more from Pickens:

Imported Oil Costs U.S. $33 Billion in July

"As the price of oil climbs settles in above $100 a barrel, Americans continues to ship billions of dollars overseas to OPEC as we feed our dangerous addiction to foreign oil. Last month’s tally of $33 billion for imported oil works out to more than $700,000 per minute throughout the entire month of July.

An important element to this massive expense was the fact that the cost of imported oil rose more than $5 per barrel to an average of almost $108 per barrel. Here are the facts:

Total Oil Import Numbers By Month

July 2013 Total

306 million barrels of petroleum imported

50% of US supply

$107.93/barrel average price

$33.0 billion total cost of imports

$739,485.39/cost of imports per minute


May 2013 OPEC Imports

125 million barrels of petroleum imported from OPEC countries

41% of US oil imports

$12.9 billion total cost of OPEC oil"

 
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A Life Aloft said:
China surpassed the U.S. as importer of Persian Gulf crude several years ago. It's is on track to overtake the U.S. this year as the world's No. 1 buyer of oil from OPEC. China's OPEC-crude imports during this year's first half averaged 3.7 million barrels a day, versus 3.5 million for the U.S. One report I read stated that China is slated to account for half of the world's oil demand growth. Then there's India and the rest of Asia. I don't see the domination of the middle east in terms of being producers/exports diminishing any time soon.
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Well I hope Asia enjoys being able to buy from two oil barons in the future. Just think, Arabs will have more reasons than just religion to hate those filthy American heathens. We're going to take their jobs... 'DEY 'DOOK 'ARR JAWBS!!!!
 
ChasenSFO said:
Simple, you can't compete. Just have to work with them or around them, and make sure they dont' expand too far in with 5th freedom routes. Though the majority of Gulf carriers have no plans for interline connections anytime soon, so working with them isn't really an option. One has to wonder, 140 A380s for Emirates...those can't all be routes from Dubai...
Click to expand...

Damn skippy . . . I saw an Emirates advertisement the other day for direct NYC - Milan flights (starting next month) and their advertised fares were cheap considering the great service they provide. The Gulf airlines are also becoming big shareholders on some European and Asian airlines . . . their capital may come from the Middle East but these airlines are managed Western-style and seem to be poised to grow in the current era of globalization.
 
Cóndor said:
Damn skippy . . . I saw an Emirates advertisement the other day for direct NYC - Milan flights (starting next month) and their advertised fares were cheap considering the great service they provide. The Gulf airlines are also becoming big shareholders on some European and Asian airlines . . . their capital may come from the Middle East but these airlines are managed Western-style and seem to be poised to grow in the current era of globalization.
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No one mentions it, but Asian carriers are probably next to do this on a smaller scale. All Nippon Airways in Japan is doing nothing lately but starting up new carriers in other countries, racking up subsidiaries, and buying shares in airlines and aviation businesses world wide. I'm not sure how many people know this, but they recently bought Pan Am Holdings, which included the Flight Academy AND the Pan Am brand. Hmm...wonder if the carriers that train 141 here in the states will start headed over to the Asian run business.

http://www.flyingmag.com/news/all-nippon-airways-buys-pan-am-international-flight-academy
 
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