Dispatcher Supply ?

[bafanguy]

There's been lots of industry discussion about the supply of pilots (not trying to start another discussion about that here) but it occurred to me I've heard nothing about industry forecasts for the availability of dispatchers in the coming years. I suppose it could be out there but I just haven't come across it myself.

Any current info from your corner of the industry ?

 

[MT]

There is usually a good demand for dispatchers regardless, but we are on the same general plane as the pilots.

The major airlines are in a hiring boom right now due to expansion. Most of the people in the major airline dispatch offices will be retiring within the next 10 years as well. This is a great time to be in the industry!

 

[Flagship_dxer]

I actually have a slightly different take on things. The majors are mainly in stagnation to slow growth mode. The emphasis with the mergers is on right sizing markets and controlling the capacity supply.

At the regionals, the future is looking leaner than they were previously. ERJ/CRJs are being replaced by a much smaller number of CR7/CR9/E170s. This will lead to less dispatchers being needed at the larger regionals such as Eagle, ExpressJet, and SkyWest.

The elephant in the room is the ATP requirement coupled with Part 117 rest rules. The regionals are already having major problems recruiting pilots. The bulk of the major pilot retirements are yet to come in the next 5-10 years. Pilots aren't getting licenses in a supply as high as before due to the high costs. The military isn't producing as many pilots as in the past and those that do fly for the airlines typically skip the regionals. The new ATP requirements adds an extra barrier to get to the airlines.

The big debate remains as to how this will effect the regionals and how much of a exposure the majors might get in a possible trickle up effect.

The more immediate problem for new dispatchers is when regional airlines shrink or go out of business this will create a large supply of dispatchers looking for work. For newly licensed dispatchers, this could possibly make it more difficult to get hired in the short term. Long term I would not be surprised to see the major airlines hire off the street without experience if the pilot shortage necessitates getting rid of or bringing the flying at the regionals in house.

 

[MT]

Doubt regional flying will be brought in house. They'll just no longer serve those communities.

 

[bafanguy]

Where do most major carriers get their new dispatchers these days ?

It's been a while but I seem to remember that Delta did internal hiring of appropriate candidates and sent them to school for the ticket. I know it was a highly sought after job and to be in the running a person had to come from some department, at some level of management, related to moving/working with airplanes. Of course, many came via mergers also.

No idea what they do these days.

 

[MT]

In order to be looked at for Delta, you had to have at least ten years with the company and have some sort of management position. Then you had to pass the testing battery and the shrink. There was no chance for an external hire.

Now, you must have at least 3 years hard dispatch experience to even get a look externally. Management experience is highly sought as well. Out of the last two classes that had external hired only 2 or 3 were only line dispatchers. Most were supervisors or higher.

Many fine people have been eliminated during the testing battery.Delta should be hiring a lot of guys and gals over the next few years, but it is only a very select few that get through the rigorous selection process.

 

[pljenkins]

We've been talking about "the death of the regional airline" since regionals started flying jets. It is, in a way, a beat to death cliche. Truth of the matter is, we aviation people in general, and pilots in particular, are a naturally suspicious lot, so we seem to be naturally wired to assume everything that has the faint odor of change can't POSSIBLY be for the good. Propaganda plays into it a lot also. Much like politics, unions need to ensure their constituents are all on the same page so there's a tendency for "selective reporting" and some embellishment of the facts, so that of course has a trickle down effect to other parts of the airline and externally.

Point is, rumors of the imminent demise of All Things Regional might be a bit exaggerated. Historically being the servants of the castle, which regionals really are, has been a precarious position with the constant threat of beheading looming over you, but they do serve a purpose and so long as scope continues to exist the regional business will be as it is. Since the mainlines are now pretty much back in the black the pilot unions aren't going to be giving up scope any time soon. There will be plenty of opportunity for new dispatchers that are willing to do the work needed to be outstanding.

There IS truth in the notion that dispatch jobs are not just falling into people's laps anymore. If you want it, you're going to have to make your own opportunities happen, and that is where making the networking connections becomes so important.