Delta in trouble / Air Taxis

DrBenny

DrBenny

New Member
The recent trouble with American, USAirways / United, and now Delta has reminded me of some articles that appeared last year in some of the aviation mags. The tenor of the argument was that in ten or twenty years the airlines as we know them will not exist. At first, I felt that the statement was extreme, but after having read a bit more, I feel that there is some truth to the arguments. The future, according to these writers, would look like this:

1) International flights would still be flown by the airlines.

2) Many domestic routes would be flown either by air taxis (the new breed of ultralight jets like Adam700, Cessna Mustang, etc.), OR by regional jets.

I have an opinion on this, but I am interested in yours.
 
air taxi's kinda like back to the future 3? i think it would cost more to do that wouldn't it?
 
It would simply cost too much to put six people in a mustang and go to vegas. You would need more seats on the thing to turn a profit. Theres are so many different variables that wouldn't allow this to work. I can't begin to talk about them. Hey it's a great idea, but nothing realistic for another 50 years. Especially with the new 7E7 and A380 coming out, aviation lobbiests would fight this idea down to the bone.
 
I would have to agree with mrivc211 here. Compare the ASM cost of a full B737 or A320 to that of a full regional jet. The numbers simply don't add up. Bigger aircraft make more sense if the seats are full. Also, can you imagine the congestion created by hundreds of "air taxis" all arriving at a single destination close to the same time?
 
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....Don't believe everything you hear or read cause I'm still waiting for my flying car!!!


Matthew

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. . .And my 40 acres!!!

A mule wouldn't do me much good these days....
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. . .And my 40 acres!!!

A mule wouldn't do me much good these days....
grin.gif


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OMG...that would be such a good topic for arguepolitics.com. I have insighted such a riotous debate over there.
I don't see you ever there bra...

And if you owned a mule in Mexico you'd clean up...wink,wink people go down to Nogalas and Tia Juana for those shows all the time.


Matthew
 
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Ha! I'm still waiting for rocket packs!

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Nah, another year or two and we'll be transported like Star Trek...lol

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Besides, we've barely got airspace for the jets in the ATC system now, I couldn't imagine going from 1 757 to 20 9-passenger 'air taxis'.
 
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we've barely got airspace for the jets in the ATC system now

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Huh? Plenty of airspace up there, and we'll only have more of it when everyone can file and get direct. What's in short supply are takeoff/landing slots in any given 24 hr period at the busiest airports--a phenomenon created by the airlines and their hub/spoke model. Of course, demand (and thus traffic) is highest at the biggest cities, but how much of the human traffic transiting LAX is merely passing through to some other destination? My guess is LOTS. Same goes for the other airports routinely hit with flow control restrictions.

Since 9/11 especially, rich folks have avoided public transit; first class is full of frequent flyers and award upgrades, rarely someone who paid full-fare for their ticket (it only takes watching an episode of AIRLINE! to see why the upper crust want nothing to do with commercial air travel). A friend of mine works for a dude who owns a number of car dealerships in the bay area, who regularly flew commercially with his family to SLC, enroute to their vacation property in Deer Valley. Immediately after 9/11, he bought half a share in a Citation and they haven't flown commercially since. Even for the family trip to Hawaii, he chartered a Gulfstream instead of flying commercially.
 
I'd like to think the sky will always be filled with big airliners complete with two pilots at the helm, but I believe the air taxi scheme will increase in market share as time goes on. The new, smaller jets are being designed to do precisely that - the Eclipse is said to have a seat cost close to a full fare airline ticket. There are still some problems with this since no one wants to pay full fare, and I doubt the seating on the Eclipse is that spacious. A realistic approach for the next 20 years, as air travel expands, (which is supposed to, they say) is a hybrid system that utilizes the infrastructure already in place. Airliners will continue to operate out of their huge DFW's and ATL's, etc. while air taxis emerge and utilize satellite airports that are currently operating well below capacity. DFW may be heavily congested, but if I live in a suburb of Dallas, why don't I just use an air taxi service at a more convenient airport such as McKinney? Advances in a vionics, automation, and datalink type systems will help facilitate the increased traffic safely. Replace is a strong word at this point, but there's a whole lot of potential here.

Another thing I often find myself pondering is the switch to the one pilot airliner. We've gone from 4 to 3 to 2...how low will we go? One of NASA's projects for the next century of flight is to provide a ground override mechanism to prevent disasters such as 9/11. I suspect the next shift in cockpit crew will be to a single pilot on board the aircraft with another pilot on the ground monitoring a group of flights. The economic advantage (assuming the capital is cheap enough)here, of course, is that labor costs are reduced. Flying of the future is less stick and more tech.

My biggest concern with the "ground control system" is that it seems to provide just another access point for malicious users to manipulate the aircraft's controls. Furthermore, reduction from 2 pilots to 1 in the cockpit disrupts the important training aspects involved of master and apprentice. Well, enough of my musings. I'm a 50 hour ppl, what do I know?
 
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DFW may be heavily congested, but if I live in a suburb of Dallas, why don't I just use an air taxi service at a more convenient airport such as McKinney?

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I just flew out of McKinney, tki, tonight. its a good airport to fly out of for general aviation, corporate, etc. It's also a whole lot better than Addison in regards to quantity of air traffic coming in and out.
 
According to those articles, current costs (with near-full planes) would be less than a business seat, but more than an economy seat. Operators are hoping initially that business flyers will welcome the change.

I'd be interested in knowing how you think this would happen:

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. . . aviation lobbiests would fight this idea down to the bone.

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Are you talking about ALPA? How would they fight this?
 
The argument can be made that even ONE pilot is unnecessary (and flight attendants too--just put self-serve vending machines in the galleys), but would you board an aircraft without one? Think about that for a moment. Now suppose Microsoft entered the autopilot market.

Honestly, I doubt you'll see this in your lifetime. Electronic voting isn't even secure enough for general use at this point, and a ground override needs to be hacked only once for a real tragedy to occur. It's sorta like the ground-activated self-destruct mechanism some suggested after 9/11; can you imagine terrorists hacking that system and simultaneously self-destructing every airliner in the sky?
 
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Since 9/11 especially, rich folks have avoided public transit; first class is full of frequent flyers and award upgrades

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I never met anyone "rich" in first class. It was some upgrades, some frequent fliers, but 90% travel agents who wrote their own tickets!
 
The air taxi concept with the new light jets could really explode.

It will not replace airline travel, couldn't possibly.

But many of the majors won't be here in 2 years much less 10. And the trend will start back to larger jets, with 70 seats making up most of the low end.
 
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Nah, another year or two and we'll be transported like Star Trek...lol

[/ QUOTE ]I was very disappointed when 1999 came and went without any eugenics war . . . and SkyNet didn't take over, either.
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Air Taxis: already here, guys

I suspect that some of you don't understand the concept of air taxi. We aren't talking Back to the Future. Air Taxis are simply light jets that fly on demand. Really, we're just talking charter, but with smaller and cheaper jets. The only reason for the predicted explosion in the market is that there is a new crop of ultra light, ultra cheap (yeah, right) jets coming out: The Adam 700, Eclipse 500, and the Citation Mustang are three examples.

Thus, we aren't discussing a concept that does not yet exists--we have air taxis right now. Instead, we're talking about how much of the market share they may take up.

Web References:

http://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/postsecondary/features/F_Call_for_Taxi.html

http://www.designnews.com/article/CA413990.html?nid=2332&rid=532710248

http://www.airtaxiworld.com/newsaircraft.asp

http://www.surrey.ac.uk/eng/InfoPoint/mddp/outline/UK%20Air%20Taxi%20v003%20170504.doc

http://www.eclipseaviation.com/index.htm
 
Re: Air Taxis: already here, guys

Hi,

I'm not really sure what aircraft might be used for air taxis but from what I remember seeing the show(discovery? or TLC). It looks simple enough because of "real time" wireless device that you will have in the future that u can point and click for ticket and go!. But the question of security is still concern me since small airports are not really equipped with state-of-the-art safety devices.

thaina09123
 
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