Well, I think there are quite a number of factors an operator has to consider. First, there are quite a few low budget operations that just don't have money to RVSM aircraft. Also, there are leaseback aircraft where owners don't want to put 150-200k into a 300-400k airplane. However, among larger, more solvent companies I think you will see LearJets being RVSMd. Sure, it's alot of money, but it's cheaper then buying replacement aircraft. Airnet, for example, has already RVSMd some of their Lear 35s and plan on doing their whole fleet. Other large 135 operators are doing the same.
When RVSM kicks in I would expect that the lower altitudes will be packed with aircraft. One issue is that even if every operator chooses to RVSM their aircraft, there is not enough avonics shops or FAA inspectors to complete the work by next January. Also, companies, like mine, will wait until that last possible second to see if there is an extension before spending money.
What you will see is alot of older citations, lears, saberliners, jetstars, etc...going down to south america and mexico, where there is no RVSM and fuel is cheap.