CAL Cutting Back :-(

Jesus. So I guess US Air is the only one left who hasn't announced cuts...now we just wait and see.

Does that mean furloughs at CAL?
 
Monkey see

Monkey do


OOH OOH OOH OOH
AAH AAH AAH AAH

[fling............SPLAT]



Look at the bright side:


1. On your deathbed, you will receive total conciousness.

2. The airline industry might finally get some traction in pricing power.

3. There will be a lot of pent up demand when the airlines eventually un-contract.

4. And when that happens, some pilots will have retired. Some pilots will have quit in disgust.




Until then........yes, shrinkage is something no man [or woman] wants to see.
 
Holy cow! This is going back to 2002. Pretty soon the 300 hour kiddies will be screamin, "where can I find a CFI gig that pays at least $10 an hour"? 135 Freight operators all of a sudden are a great gig.
 
I hear they are probably only to have to furlough 300-400, I thought they hired a lot more than that since 2002? I was thinking it was in the thousands.
 
Reliable sources have indicated to me that there will be a COLA (Company Offered Leave of Absence) offered likely in July. I think the target is about 200 to 300 pilots. The offer specifics are being drawn up now but management doesn't expect to have to consider the "F" word right now. We have many young military guys that have opportunities to go fly in a guard or reserve unit and actually make more than first year pay at CAL. Depending in the incentive package, I don't think anybody will be forced out that doesn't want to go. As we all know, this info could change tomorrow the way this industry is changing.

It's important to mention to those training for the airlines, not to stop because of the slowdown in hiring. It is natural to see bad times and just temporarily abandon your own progress until things pick up. Those who will be in a good position are those who will continue to train and will be ready to step in when the doors re-open, which they will.
 
calcapt said:
It is natural to see bad times and just temporarily abandon your own progress until things pick up. Those who will be in a good position are those who will continue to train and will be ready to step in when the doors re-open, which they will.
Click to expand...

Unless of course the cost of fuel fundamentally changes the industry. For good. Pretty much every airline CEO has said $130/bbl oil is simply not a sustainable price. Although with extreme cutbacks (50%+) it might be. I just don't even want to imagine that right now.

There was a guy who left my company to go fly corporate, he reported paying $8/gal for Jet-A on the retail market. Insane.
 
I'm sorry, but $130/bbl is simply not sustainable for ANY market. Not India, Not China, Not Brazil, and certainly not the already westernized civilizations.

Now, $80-$100? Perhaps.
 
Net reduction of 31 airframes.

Increase of 2 777s at 30 pilots per plane, offsets 4 737 exits, as far as number of pilots goes.

about 300 pilots overstaffed because of the exits, however they are already 'overstaffed' for the summer, offering VRF (11 day unpaid vacations) lines for July.

1500 ish pilots have been hired since 2005.

More should be known After the COLA info has been put out and bid on, and the system bid info has been published.

They have said that the 'break even point' of furloughing a first year pilot is 18 months. ie if they think the furlough is going to be less than 18 months, its cheaper for the company to have extra pilots getting paid guarantee. Of course that trickles up to the lineholders too.

Hopefully this contract will have some work rule improvements, requiring more pilots.
 
Yup, was actually just about to give the real numbers. Now, if CAL decides to cancel their delivery schedule. . . okay well, numbers change.
 
surreal1221 said:
I'm sorry, but $130/bbl is simply not sustainable for ANY market. Not India, Not China, Not Brazil, and certainly not the already westernized civilizations.

Now, $80-$100? Perhaps.
Click to expand...

Oil supply asside, watch the stock market and the value of the US dollar...and perhaps interest rates. As each of those markets improve the price of oil will decline and hopefully level out.
 
surreal1221 said:
I'm sorry, but $130/bbl is simply not sustainable for ANY market. Not India, Not China, Not Brazil, and certainly not the already westernized civilizations.

Now, $80-$100? Perhaps.
Click to expand...

Well I have to disagree. It's not sustainable with the current amount of seats out there, and as prices go up demand goes down, but imagine if there was 1 flight a day between DEN and LGA? How much would those tickets be?

Pretty expensive.

Here's the deal - at $5/gal for Jet-A, a UAL 757 costs about $7300/hour to operate. At 3.5 hours, that's $25.6k. Divided by 127 folks (a 757 seats 182 with a 70% load factor) and you get $200 a pop each way.

You think UAL can find 127 people that would pay $200 each way to go DEN-LGA? I do. In fact I bet they would fill the thing up at $500 each way.

So, it's not an issue of being sustainable at the current price, it's an issue of being sustainable with the amount of seats on the market. Great for the guys on the top right now. Crappy for us at the bottom. Cutbacks are coming, and as long as the LCC's don't move in aggressively to keep prices down (regulation anyone?!?), we should see some relief.
 
Cav said:
Oil supply asside, watch the stock market and the value of the US dollar...and perhaps interest rates. As each of those markets improve the price of oil will decline and hopefully level out.
Click to expand...

I'm very well aware of that. I expect this very thing to occur. But how far will we see oil drop - that is the question that will not be answered for a very long time.

Supply really is not even an issue. We've been using far more oil a day then has been on the market for an extremely long time (over a decade). Why didn't we see the increase in prices THEN as opposed to now? There are ships sitting off the coast of Iran, DAILY, with no where to go due to the lack of refining capacity. We have the oil, we just lack the infrastructure to refine it (go figure). So what's the deal?

Long term investors moving their investments out of weak stocks due to the weak dollar and moving them into commodities.

People should not be able to purchase long term paper on the price of wheat, gold, cooper, or oil. These are not suppose to be investment tools, sorry. What's next, I'll pay $10 for a bag of bagels 5 years out?. . .highest bidder gets the food at the super market? GTFKM. :)

wheelsup said:
Well I have to disagree. It's not sustainable with the current amount of seats out there, and as prices go up demand goes down, but imagine if there was 1 flight a day between DEN and LGA? How much would those tickets be?
...
So, it's not an issue of being sustainable at the current price, it's an issue of being sustainable with the amount of seats on the market. Great for the guys on the top right now. Crappy for us at the bottom. Cutbacks are coming, and as long as the LCC's don't move in aggressively to keep prices down (regulation anyone?!?), we should see some relief.
Click to expand...

Wasn't really directed towards the microeconomics of the Airline industry wheels, but rather at the macroeconomic of western and developing societies.
 
Im still willing to bet that oil is in the $90 range in the next 12 months. If by chance oil still is in the 120+ range then eventually our govt. will just allow other countries who subsidize their own oil to have their foreign airlines running the show in the US.
 
Why can't the airlines just grow/hire and earn profits on a consistent basis?

It seems as though all they money they make.....they end up losing.
 
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