#BaseClosing and Displacement

So, my shop is closing my base and opening a new base 20 miles up the road. Even though the new base has been a co-terminal of closing base for years, it wasn't the "BASE" per the contract and this drives a re-bid for all of the closing based based pilots. It also opens up the new base to everyone in a company-wide bid. All this being said, I'm getting displaced and won't be able to hold my current seat in the new base. (The only reason I was able to get it in the first place is because I was able to 'base trade' six years before I would naturally hold it through retirements and attrition. Which is a long and supposedly controversial story that boils down to: I read the contract.) The political solution also failed. That was a hail-mary anyway... Got more traction than I thought it would.

Anyhoo, I'd love to hear the thoughts of the JC collective. WWYD? Family is staying in SoCal, for now. At least the next year.

In a displacement I'm allowed to 'bump and flush' anyone to junior to me in the bid. My choices are: Fort North Miami, Baaaaaastin, New Ork City, and Disney World with a transcon commute thrown in for good measure. Disney is not a good commute option, all offline. Permanent reserve.

New Ork is the easiest, although I did that for almost 5 years and am kinda over it. I'm a lineholder in all of the bases except Disney. (That one is as senior as my current domicile.) At least I was a lineholder pre-covid. I'm also sick of crashpad life, so wherever I end up I'm planning on getting a pied-a-terre/investment place. (That the family can visit/use also while I sit on reserve. Or not, up to them. I just don't want to share an apartment with 14 dudes anymore.) Trip mix is best out of the North East. But Winter/Summer storms... irops... getting stuck... and the cost of living. North Miami has S. America trips, which I haven't done yet. And that actually sounds fun.

I've been driving to work for the last year and was planning on doing so for the rest of my career. I was finally decompressed from the toil that the transcon commute was taking on me at the first of the year. Getting healthy. Now I've gone and gained my COVID-19. Too much time to think about cooking gourmet stuff.

So, where would be a good place to invest in? I'm trying to think my way through all the angles here before the displacement bid comes out in the next two months. I'm pretty emotionally invested in the whole issue, so I know that I'm not thinking straight. Hoping that the family will be willing to move someday. I love SoCal as much as anyone, but it really costs way too much to live here for nice weather and a view. I'm leaning towards FL... but don't know the area that well. Finding something that is driving distance to work and decent area. What's a good place to buy into and not... (What's with the whole country-club real estate seems-like-a-scam thing?)

So, yeah... I could use some other perspectives.
From your kids' perspective you're probably already gone too much. Commuting would add several days to that. As nice as SoCal might be, is it worth that much more family separation? Kids can live without a lot of the stuff money can buy, but they need as much Dad as they can get. Add in the stress of commuting, and now you're even less (emotionally) available to your kids.

If there is nothing holding you where you are other than preference, go where the work is.
 
From your kids' perspective you're probably already gone too much. Commuting would add several days to that. As nice as SoCal might be, is it worth that much more family separation? Kids can live without a lot of the stuff money can buy, but they need as much Dad as they can get. Add in the stress of commuting, and now you're even less (emotionally) available to your kids.

If there is nothing holding you where you are other than preference, go where the work is.

I'm the only one in my immediate family who chose to move here, wife grew up in town. Albeit it was back in the mid 90's and SoCal was different back then. I would leave in a heartbeat except for the extended family that is literally a 5-15 min drive from where we live. Instant help, babysitting, etc. in case anything is going on. I'm sick of the 'price' of everything out here. Literally a tax on weather.

I know that I was gone too much, but it is what it is. Maybe I can convince my in-laws to move and then my wife will move. The SIL and BIL and Cousins probably won't follow, but it would be nice if they would.
 
There is no way the industry is "only" going to be 20% smaller by next summer which is what most carriers seem to be planning on doing. Even if a vaccine comes by January, it's gonna take time to get it out to everyone and not everyone is going to come back on planes. TSA numbers right now in the busy months show 500-800k pax a day which is 20-25% of traffic levels from same time last year. Sept-Oct I can imagine it cratering even lower and 1st Q will be horrendous (1st quarter is usually horrendous even when things are good).

I fully expect one big round of cuts on Oct 1 and then another big round of cut somewhere around Spring next year. IATA already said 2024 until recovery. We are screwed for a loooong time to come. I don't think it's really sunk into people just how hosed we really are - and I don't mean just the airline industry.

I've gotten the 2nd hand numbers from those that have listened to the E & FA briefings. It's such a fluid situation, and it really depends on what 'recovery' means. If it means 2019 pax numbers, then maybe. Growth on top of that?

Lots of doom and gloom out there, this week the #'s are looking better. Outlook indicators are looking up.

I'm hoping for a 2nd round of CARES to go through. And I'm betting on it. Not unlike post 9/11 I'm expecting a round of consolidation and other things to shake up the industry. I expect leisure to bounce back faster than business travel. It's a matter of confidence. Right now it's about building consumer trust in the the airlines - and I believe that everyone is trying to do that. People want to get out. Show them it's 'safe' and they will.
 
Sorry to hear that. Been there, had the shoes, but I could only do 2 months of commuting NY to LA. I can't believe you've done this 5 yrs (though commuting to reserve is vastly different than commuting to fly a line). Sorry this is happening, best of luck and let us know what you decide and end up doing.

Our bid closes on the 17th... the results should come out within a week or so after that. Will do.
 
If you're looking to move then the house of the mouse is your best choice, reserve is what it is, but out of all your choices it's the most economical place to live. The difference in cost of living and not having to pay state income tax will be huge, you could proably move some of your family (if you want to) as well and still come out ahead. And when things do pick back up, if getting in the training department interests you, you're already there!

If a commute is your only option then always shoot for where you hope to have a line, it's going to be a transcon commute for you regardless, make it the most efficient use of your time as possible.
 
Our bid closes on the 17th... the results should come out within a week or so after that. Will do.

You'll like this. They closed NY on us. Now, they gonna close SFO (not replaced by a Boeing base so it's just gone) and close LAX 320. Not sure how quickly, hopefully over a couple years. But bottom line now is that every Virgin base will be gone and the Airbuses are going from 71 to 30 total. If we stay dual fleet (highly doubtful) those 30 would stay. But most likely we go back to single fleet which means those 30 would also go bye long term.
 
If you're looking to move then the house of the mouse is your best choice, reserve is what it is, but out of all your choices it's the most economical place to live. The difference in cost of living and not having to pay state income tax will be huge, you could proably move some of your family (if you want to) as well and still come out ahead. And when things do pick back up, if getting in the training department interests you, you're already there!

If a commute is your only option then always shoot for where you hope to have a line, it's going to be a transcon commute for you regardless, make it the most efficient use of your time as possible.

I wouldn't mind working in the schoolhouse for a change of pace. But I don't think that is in the cards. The downside of the MouseHouse is that the base is still very senior and like the west coast they just keep kicking the can two-four years down the road for growth. But, I agree... it is such a inexpensive place to live compared to my current digs. I've ran the 'living in FL' vs 'living in CA' numbers and it's insane how much of a premium you pay to have an address out here. (or for the weather or whatever)
 
You'll like this. They closed NY on us. Now, they gonna close SFO (not replaced by a Boeing base so it's just gone) and close LAX 320. Not sure how quickly, hopefully over a couple years. But bottom line now is that every Virgin base will be gone and the Airbuses are going from 71 to 30 total. If we stay dual fleet (highly doubtful) those 30 would stay. But most likely we go back to single fleet which means those 30 would also go bye long term.

If I had the option to move to the northwest and drag my family with me and still drive to work I would take it in a heartbeat. Just for the economics of the whole thing.

Sad to say I'm not surprised. Although the base closures associated with the fleets shrinking are a bit of a shock, but it makes sense I guess. I would have figured that they would have kept two of the bases. Just like Alaska had a N and S basing on the west coast. Made sense for staffing SNAFU's.

Lots of switch flipping and mashing in those 73's... sorry. They forcing you to move over yet? Or are you going to ride the bus down till the last day?
 
If I had the option to move to the northwest and drag my family with me and still drive to work I would take it in a heartbeat. Just for the economics of the whole thing.

Sad to say I'm not surprised. Although the base closures associated with the fleets shrinking are a bit of a shock, but it makes sense I guess. I would have figured that they would have kept two of the bases. Just like Alaska had a N and S basing on the west coast. Made sense for staffing SNAFU's.

Lots of switch flipping and mashing in those 73's... sorry. They forcing you to move over yet? Or are you going to ride the bus down till the last day?

I'm junior on the Bus. Boeing, I'd be lineholder at LAX (pre-Covid, who knows now). I'm most likely getting cut on this bid that is currently processing. It is -20 CA/FO LAX Bus and -20 CA/FO SFO (Bus). It did add +40 CA/FO on the Boeing. But mostly in SEA, PDX, ANC. The secondary displacements are going to be big. As SFO and LAX Bus wind down, I can easily see LAX becoming the most senior AS base. Legacy VX CAs are not going to want their relative seniority diluted (because of how the SLI came out). The only base where they can hold a good semblance of seniority will be LAX. There just aren't going to be enough spots in LAX Boeing to absorb everyone from SFO and LAX Bus. That's why I'm hoping the base closures happen over a sloooow dragged out period of time. Lessen the pain, let people retire, move, etc.
 
Wow. It was quite the bump and flush.

I was displaced to JFK/320/CA. Not my first or second choice. I‘m not happy, but it’s the best of the worst things that could have happened so far. I’m expecting that my shop will be running a couple of other bids in the coming months. We have new equipment coming on line. We have SQ (special qualification) potentially for next year. And our LOA expires on 30April, so the staffing on 01May might not support the current number of pilots. We haven’t gone through the complete gambit of furlough mitigation yet, so that will help. And 7 months is a lifetime in this environment, so who knows.

At least I don’t have training this time around. I just need a crashpad and we have “long call reserve” with a 14 hr callout. Not fun from this coast, but doable. I was previously on short call when I was out east. 18 days a month.
 
That actually might be a good idea, although I know nothing about boats other than the "two greatest days..." I'll have to look at slip costs and such. The economics probably won't work out.

The boat plan is pretty solid. Good luck finding a boat in Florida right now though, everyone else had that idea 6 months ago...

There's a lot to do in Southeast Florida. Bahamas are close, Keys are an easy drive. Taxes at least reasonable. Waterfront house prices are about twice what they are here in Tampa Bay, boating water is rougher (so you need a twice as expensive boat, or a sailboat). Direct flights everywhere from Miami, so less time stuck in ATL. Too many cruise ships, but I think it is at least a year before they come back.
 
Wow. It was quite the bump and flush.

I was displaced to JFK/320/CA. Not my first or second choice. I‘m not happy, but it’s the best of the worst things that could have happened so far. I’m expecting that my shop will be running a couple of other bids in the coming months. We have new equipment coming on line. We have SQ (special qualification) potentially for next year. And our LOA expires on 30April, so the staffing on 01May might not support the current number of pilots. We haven’t gone through the complete gambit of furlough mitigation yet, so that will help. And 7 months is a lifetime in this environment, so who knows.

At least I don’t have training this time around. I just need a crashpad and we have “long call reserve” with a 14 hr callout. Not fun from this coast, but doable. I was previously on short call when I was out east. 18 days a month.

Has there been any bid results since this one you got?

What's the most junior CA now systemwide DOH? I assume also JFK?
 
Has there been any bid results since this one you got?

What's the most junior CA now systemwide DOH? I assume also JFK?

I think I’m reading our stuff right, most JR Bus Captain [JFK]is a Feb 14 hire...*I could be off through. I really have no idea what I’m looking at with our system bidding program and have no idea where we are with displacements.
 
I think I’m reading our stuff right, most JR Bus Captain [JFK]is a Feb 14 hire...*I could be off through. I really have no idea what I’m looking at with our system bidding program and have no idea where we are with displacements.

Most junior is Bus CA now, not E190?
 
Here's the weird thing about MCO... the seniority list shows MCO Capt's that are junior to us, instructors, but they aren't listed in PVBM. That's kind of out as a choice for displacement for me anyway... the commute is all off line. If it wasn't, it would be a great place to get a vacation condo/crashpad.

Late to this thread, but if you need to go between LAX and MCO, we're flying it a few times per week. Leaves LAX early morning. Leaves MCO early evening. Example:


Flight ID : CKS363Flight No. :Tail No. : N744CKEquipment : 747 400
ETD KMCO11/3/2020 22:05 UTCETA KLAX11/4/2020 03:30 UTC
ETD KMCO11/4/2020 22:05 UTCETA KLAX11/5/2020 03:30 UTC
ETD KMCO11/5/2020 22:05 UTCETA KLAX11/6/2020 03:30 UTC
ETD KMCO11/6/2020 22:05 UTCETA KLAX11/7/2020 03:30 UTC
ETD KMCO11/7/2020 22:05 UTCETA KLAX11/8/2020 03:30 UTC

Flight ID : CKS364Flight No. :Tail No. : N745CKEquipment : 747 400
ETD KLAX11/7/2020 14:30 UTCETA KMCO11/7/2020 19:05 UTC
ETD KLAX11/6/2020 14:30 UTCETA KMCO11/6/2020 19:05 UTC
ETD KLAX11/5/2020 14:30 UTCETA KMCO11/5/2020 19:05 UTC
ETD KLAX11/4/2020 14:30 UTCETA KMCO11/4/2020 19:05 UTC
ETD KLAX11/3/2020 14:30 UTCETA KMCO11/3/2020 19:05 UTC
 
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