Autonomous (Not just unmanned) fighter.
- Thread starter Kingairer
- Start date
CoffeeIcePapers
Well-Hung Member
We’re toast.
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
I just hope the wheels of bureaucracy roll slowly enough for me to reach a respectable retirement age!
bike21
9-5 Ruins Lives
Cost, bureaucracy, union contracts, pubic perception, etc. are in our favor for the moment. But for how long? TBD.
I think it's fair to say the young aviation grads today will see a much different landscape in their later years than we will. It's always been that way of course in the relative short history of commercial aviation, but this time will any of them hare jobs?
Kingairer
'Tiger Team' Member
Hard to see many career fields that aren't going to be affected by AI/Autonomous Technology soon (already). Anecdotally, at the college level, you're seeing more and more UAS classes and programs, so I think there will be an adaptation of the airline/aviation career for those starting in the upcoming years.
I hope the military is ready for all of this. I am sure certain adversaries certainly are.
ppragman
No pasa nada.
Didn't I mention this? Haven't I continuously talked about this for the last several years at least? It's been over a decade since I brought up automation as something to be concerned about on here after I learned about it.
You guys will probably be alright - new airplanes are really expensive and companies aren't going to just lay out $30m on a whim. But eventually the stuff your flying will get replaced and first that will be single pilot airliners (maybe something like TARS over in the right seat? That would be optimal), then it's likely that it'll all evaporate, but you guys *do* have like another 20 years.
Literally capitalism is not going to be able to survive this unscathed. It will change literally every domain and discipline. How do you have an economy post-material scarcity? I mean, I suppose some things will always be scarce - there's only one Mona Lisa and they aren't exactly making new land. But with population peaking in the 2050s (good lord I'll be in my 60s!), automated robots, eventually molecular level assemblers, and artificial intelligence creating basically every sort of style of knowledge work, there's going to be a sort of deflationary effect across the entirety of human civilization.
People are all freaked out about trans people now? Just wait until you can literally change your DNA and kids are growing tails. Bio isn't my field, but DNA can be tokenized. I bet that we start seeing DNA modification outside of clinical settings in like 5-8 years? I mean, maybe it takes a decade longer than that - maybe it takes 15 to 20 years? And then every conceivable malady will likely be solved along this pathway too. Unless something violently kills you quick, if we make it long enough, it's likely that we end up with cures for cancer, practically every virus, etc. then a lot of this becomes just maintenance, so even the medical industry will be made obsolescent compared to it's current form.
Literally thinking about (and talked with a guy yesterday) about taking some AE classes and working towards implementing drone stuff for up here in AK. Part 108 is no joke.
CoffeeIcePapers
Well-Hung Member
I am 42 and don't think I am alright. Airbus is already testing single pilot ops and retrofits won't cost nearly as much as a new airplane. We have roughly 16k pilots here, let's say an average of 300k, so that's 4.8 billion per year. If they could slash that in half tomorrow, they would. Technology moves exponentially, which is hard for the human brain to wrap it's head around. I used to always shake my head and laugh when I saw boomer pilots posting memes of the McDonald's kiosk replacing $15/hr workers. Like do you really think you are that special?
Self driving cars are already here and will be ubiquitous in less than 5 years. Once people get used to that and the statistics show how much safer they are, it's game over. There are just enough regulatory hurdles that I might make it out OK and finish my career without seeing single pilot, but I doubt it.
Yeah, these are false barriers that won't hold up.
ppragman
No pasa nada.
I'm 37. You'll be alright - I literally work to implement these systems in a non-aviation context. You have time - not because the tech isn't changing fast, but because people are kind of dumb at implementing it (myself certainly included) and because institutions are loathe to change. Personally though, what I am doing is taking the money I make and pouring it into my homestead, my head (classes, courses, etc), and a little bit into companies that build the tech that makes these tools possible. It's 10s of millions of dollars to replace an airplane and companies ring cash out of them for decades. You can't swing that around over night.
Also, companies are run by people - and MANY MANY people are adherents to the sunk cost fallacy. Most people aren't very clever and don't think beyond what they already know. Companies and governments will ride a bad decision FAR longer than they should. "Oh, this product is losing us money? Well we have already spent a gazillion on it, it's not like we can just stop using it" - wrong. You can always change but most people don't believe that. Same with stats - most people do NOT understand stats. Like, it'll happen but you probably have 18 more years. I wouldn't count on anything more than that - like, definitely don't plan on age 65? But yeah, you'll be fine.
But there's going to be other roles for humans where pesky physics or remoteness gets in the way?
bike21
9-5 Ruins Lives
The glacial pace that the FAA moves is well on our side. I mean, we still have HF, VORs, a NOTAM system that makes little sense, etc. Heck, even CPDLC barely works well in the US and not even on all planes.
The shear amount of redundant systems and system uptime required to meet regulatory needs has to be a huge barrier. I mean, just the other day we couldn't get a flight plan for almost 3 hours because AWS went down. Nearly got another paid night in Paris, I think we're good for now.
CoffeeIcePapers
Well-Hung Member
I wish I shared your optimism. AA is already using Palantir to squeeze every drop of efficiency out of crews.
View: https://youtu.be/DLx3ix6c0Oo?si=DuSFjkoFMIG8fe8E
bike21
9-5 Ruins Lives
Vote union, vote often.
ppragman
No pasa nada.
It'll be ok. I guarantee it. Like - things are going to be weird, and there will be a lot of work to try to extract value - it'll be kind of a sort of technical arbitrage where you can increase efficiency just by throwing compute at something? But this is my field, I literally do this for money.
You have a bit. I wouldn't count on getting to age 65 (60 will probably be fine) and if you get furloughed along the way I wouldn't expect to get picked up by a new ULCC that's running around with the new Airbus 321SPIFR, but the average age of the AS fleet is just under 12 years old? I doubt that they replace all those airplanes in at least another 10 years?
Even if they replace them all with single pilot airliners, well, what side of the airplane are you sitting on, now? What side will you be sitting on in 5 years? I think you'll be fine.
There are going to be far weirder things occurring than airline pilot's not getting through their careers. And, if this is actually deflationary (I think it's going to be), then I expect there will be a LOT more opportunity for weird flying stuff. I mean, maybe I'm wrong, but I think you'll be fine. And if this pans out how I think it will pan out, you'll be a lot less worried about your work and a LOT more worried about finding meaning in a life that you doesn't require you to grind in order to survive.
CoffeeIcePapers
Well-Hung Member
Yeah, I mean I don't let it worry me. I am going to keep on trucking along, but burying my head in the sand pretending the FAA and the union is going to save me is just foolish. We will have the house paid off in a few years, and I should hit 50% before I turn 50, so that's good. I'm at AA and our fleet is relatively new, but I fly the Airbus, and Airbus is testing single pilot ops already. I don't think it would take an entire fleet refresh. A retrofit would do the job. How long did it take to phase out the FE? That would be a good recent example, but those required new aircraft types, whereas I don't think single pilot ops would.
People claim they will never step foot in a single pilot airliner, but we all know that is BS.
I think that's probably a generation or 2 after me. To get to that point, there is going to be a lot of pain.
Wardogg
Meat Popsicle
I dont listen to country. Shocking I know. Heard about this.
abcnews.go.com
Genres I do listen to are having some bangers come out from AI. I mean some really good stuff.
It reminds me of the scene when Spooner asked Sonny if he could create a symphony. Apparently the answer is now yes.
AI-generated country song tops Billboard chart, makes waves in music world
A new AI-generated country music song has made its way to the top of Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart.
abcnews.go.com
Genres I do listen to are having some bangers come out from AI. I mean some really good stuff.
It reminds me of the scene when Spooner asked Sonny if he could create a symphony. Apparently the answer is now yes.
ppragman
No pasa nada.
I didn't see this until just now, but yeah - you're spot on...
Things are going to be... wildly different. That's ok - lean into it, we get the Star Trek future if we demand it!
ppragman
No pasa nada.
You know, I had somehow (because I live under a rock and only listen to the bangers of my youth or music I or friends create) had not heard about this. This is • wild. The song isn't bad either...I dont listen to country. Shocking I know. Heard about this.
AI-generated country song tops Billboard chart, makes waves in music world
A new AI-generated country music song has made its way to the top of Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart.
Genres I do listen to are having some bangers come out from AI. I mean some really good stuff.
It reminds me of the scene when Spooner asked Sonny if he could create a symphony. Apparently the answer is now yes.
