ALPA 2 pilot airline poster

Gundam

Well-Known Member
I saw that ALPA has posters for maintaining a two pilot flight deck. I can't remember the exact wording, but I found that a bit odd. Is there some practical discussion about that happening? If so, maybe it would be wise to start adding those considerations to contracts. For example, a percentage of revenue from an autonomous aircraft(or single pilot craft) would be distributed to the pilot group. That way, even if pilots are removed or partially removed from the cockpit, they will retain the percentage of revenue they had previously. Like that freedom dividend thing, but actually good.

Also before anyone says "no the public wouln't feel safe, I would never." Yes they will, and yes you would. The pandemic has pretty much sealed that as long as something causes fewer deaths than the staggeringly high number of car accidents, it is acceptable in pursuit of commerce. Doesn't matter how you feel about it, and unless crews refuse to fly on the Max or something you will fly on whatever you're paid to fly on.
 
I suspect it's a matter of time... and then we'll get to the point where the pilot on the aircraft doesn't do anything except manage emergencies... Who knows after that...

LC
 
This again! Oh boy!

1) The FAA moves at the speed of glaciers.
2) People won't go for it AT LEAST until cars are doing it regularly and everywhere. Even the most optimistic evangelists I've seen put that at around a decade.
3) I don't see any way for it to work until it is fully autonomous, AI controlled, for reasons of someone catching the case of the crazies or jamming/interference.

Best guess: ~20 years. +/- 5. Check back and see how I did in 2041.
 
This again! Oh boy!

1) The FAA moves at the speed of glaciers.
2) People won't go for it AT LEAST until cars are doing it regularly and everywhere. Even the most optimistic evangelists I've seen put that at around a decade.
3) I don't see any way for it to work until it is fully autonomous, AI controlled, for reasons of someone catching the case of the crazies or jamming/interference.

Best guess: ~20 years. +/- 5. Check back and see how I did in 2041.

What's your best guest for cargo, though? Because people aren't going to care who flies their paper towels.

I'd expect that it would be fully up and running in the cargo world before the pax world. And before that there's probably some drone type system for <100nm cargo that's an initial stepping stone.

Or I could be talking out of my ass - which you can totally say here.
 
1) The FAA moves at the speed of glaciers.

I think exactly this will keep us safe from obsolescence for a while, possibly a few decades.

Unfortunately there are many other jobs that are at risk of being automated away in the near future, and I think that could lead to more pilot unemployment than single-pilot or pilotless airliners, since there will be much less demand for air travel once so many people are unemployed.
 
This again! Oh boy!

1) The FAA moves at the speed of glaciers.
2) People won't go for it AT LEAST until cars are doing it regularly and everywhere. Even the most optimistic evangelists I've seen put that at around a decade.
3) I don't see any way for it to work until it is fully autonomous, AI controlled, for reasons of someone catching the case of the crazies or jamming/interference.

Best guess: ~20 years. +/- 5. Check back and see how I did in 2041.

If pilots wait until it is clearly coming they are less likely to get any concession, because the airline won't have to hold out as long against any backlash. I'm not suggesting it's going to happen tomorrow, I'm saying it might be worth thinking about not driving yourself to the scene of the crash. It is worth making plans for an exit while you are able rather than waiting until it's too late. If it's far away, should be no problem in putting it in a contract right? It can't be that only the company has long term vision.
 
I mean, has anyone actually looked at the wind limitations for autolands? Autonomous is a ways off.
Ever landed a rocket after re entry?

AI against fighter pilot
Consider also that the development of software technology happens a lot faster than any kind of hardware. The processing components are there for the most part, now it is really coming down to new programming developments. In the end it comes down to an engineered solution being better than an improvised one. Great pilots work for many different airlines, but they also work for these tech firms, and great engineers and scientists work there as well. So the machine counterpart to the human pilot IS many human pilots, many engineers, and many thousands of hours of thinking and tinkering, and more simulations of a given event than all pilot experience(ever) combined. If you wait until you can see it, it will be moving to fast.
 
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What's your best guest for cargo, though? Because people aren't going to care who flies their paper towels.

I'd expect that it would be fully up and running in the cargo world before the pax world. And before that there's probably some drone type system for <100nm cargo that's an initial stepping stone.

Or I could be talking out of my ass - which you can totally say here.
Autonomous works great in a bubble. So if you had cargo only airports and flying cargo airplanes in airspace not shared by anyone else, sure.

As someone that would get their career destroyed by this I'm much more worried about the likes of Mesa/Sun Country and the rest of the penis tail airplanes than AI.
 
They'll automate flight attendants first

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I keed I keed
 
One in the cockpit and one telepresence is still technically two pilats.

If you're going to have anyone at all in the cockpit, they'd presumably HAVE to be able to override the commands of anyone NOT in the cockpit (or any computer), or it would be kind of a pointless exercise.

And then we're right back at the question of the dude in the cockpit catching a case of the crazy.
 
What's your best guest for cargo, though? Because people aren't going to care who flies their paper towels.

I'd expect that it would be fully up and running in the cargo world before the pax world. And before that there's probably some drone type system for <100nm cargo that's an initial stepping stone.

Or I could be talking out of my ass - which you can totally say here.
Oooh - yeah, hadn't considered cargo. That'll for sure be first, sort of like over the road trucks going autonomously from city to city with a hub outside where a driver gets in and handles the last few miles.

But who knows?
 
What's your best guest for cargo, though? Because people aren't going to care who flies their paper towels.

I'd expect that it would be fully up and running in the cargo world before the pax world. And before that there's probably some drone type system for <100nm cargo that's an initial stepping stone.

Or I could be talking out of my ass - which you can totally say here.
I think cargo will be last of all of the sectors to go the way of pilot-less aircraft. When you deal with as much DG from all of the crazy categories combined the cargo companies are basically flying WMDs.
 
I think cargo will be last of all of the sectors to go the way of pilot-less aircraft. When you deal with as much DG from all of the crazy categories combined the cargo companies are basically flying WMDs.
How do you keep it from being hacked and used as a WMD too? I don’t even want little Amazon drones flying over my house, let alone an unmanned cargo aircraft.
 
Eventually, the computer will start outperforming the pilot every time and after a generation grows up with this they won’t be held back by antiquated thinking.

My guess is if you’re having kids right now, they might have to deal with the beginnings of this at some point in their careers.
 
Oooh - yeah, hadn't considered cargo. That'll for sure be first, sort of like over the road trucks going autonomously from city to city with a hub outside where a driver gets in and handles the last few miles.

But who knows?
Someone better develop a system similar to the pilot boats that deliver harbor pilots to and from ships entering port.

Cross air-to-air refueling with personal jet packs?
 
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