According to ATW

Orange Anchor

New Member
at http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=14130

<cite>Thursday September 25, 2008</cite> Boeing expects oil to stabilize at $70-$80 per barrel (in 2008 dollars) over the next 20 years, VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth told media in Sydney, adding that the company's forecasts have proven to be "quite accurate" this decade.
The manufacturer projects that by 2027 the global passenger and freighter fleet will comprise 2,630 regional jets (7%), 23,540 single-aisle aircraft (66%), 8,290 twin-aisle aircraft (23%) and 1,340 jumbo aircraft (4%). Total value is estimated to be $3.2 trillion.
Tinseth conceded that Boeing overestimated sales of jumbo aircraft (747s and A380s) and RJs in 2000 when it forecast the types would account for 5% and 19% of the market. As of August 2008 they represented 3% and 14% respectively. It underestimated sales of single-aisles (55% share projected) and twin-aisles (21%), with those figures now at 59% and 24% respectively. He said the actual numbers support the company's "point-to-point" emphasis despite the initial popularity of the A380 with passengers.
Going forward, he said the Asia/Pacific region will be the world's biggest market with 9,160 aircraft (31%) delivered through 2027. By value, because of the higher number of twin-aisles, the share will be 38% or $1.19 trillion. Boeing is forecasting annual GDP growth in the region of 4.1% and traffic growth of 6.7%.
Tinseth also suggested that the manufacturer will reenter the aircraft financing market after an absence of 18 months, as some traditional sources of financing have dried up.
 

falconvalley

Absentee Dad of the OOTSK, Runner, Cat Frustrator
Interesting. Of course, the oil prediction is based on what we currently know about oil availability, which isn't much. I would say that they could be right, if we have a steady flow of oil that meets demand the same it is right now.
 

Orange Anchor

New Member
Interesting. Of course, the oil prediction is based on what we currently know about oil availability, which isn't much. I would say that they could be right, if we have a steady flow of oil that meets demand the same it is right now.
Please explain how one can create a 20yr projection w/o an understanding of supply and projected demand.
 

Polar742

All the responsibility none of the authority
It's funny, 2 months ago with oil at 140, a CA I flew with predicted $70/bbl by JAN. He acknowledged he had no basis for the opinion. Until the crazy spike, and who knows as it's volitile right now, it still might come to fruition.

Who knows what it'll be if they actually start making JetA from algae poop.

I prolly should ask him for some ticker symbols.
 

skidz

Well-Known Member
I believe the oil will go back down, the speculation is over, nobody can tell me that the world demand jacked it up so high...it was all just speculation. However, in the long term it will eventually get back up again.
 

falconvalley

Absentee Dad of the OOTSK, Runner, Cat Frustrator
Please explain how one can create a 20yr projection w/o an understanding of supply and projected demand.
I can't, man. I'm not an expert on the subject, but from what I understand, predictions aren't fool-proof. 25 years ago, they were predicting 50 years or so remaining oil. Now, they're not so sure. That's what I'm talking about. How can you know where the price is gonna be with that kind of information? It's all speculation. I'm speaking about the supply end.
 

Orange Anchor

New Member
I can't, man. I'm not an expert on the subject, but from what I understand, predictions aren't fool-proof. 25 years ago, they were predicting 50 years or so remaining oil. Now, they're not so sure. That's what I'm talking about. How can you know where the price is gonna be with that kind of information? It's all speculation. I'm speaking about the supply end.
And when one reads a bit more, one finds there is considerable debate of when all the oil will be gone. Many, including me, believes the correct analysis is when will relatively cheap oil being extracted with current technology as we know it be gone. And even that estimate is driven with more than just known/suspected oil reserves... lots of politics in the mix.

I am not saying there is an inexhaustible supply but I also don't think oil is like the dod0... a species that is endangered, almost extinct and that we will be down to watching the last well die. I am reminded a lot of mines are being re-0pened because new technology is allowing better extraction techniques which are less costly and thus the old mines, unprofitable by old methods, is profitable with new methods.

But back to the estimate, I would imagine Boeing does not issue WAGs but uses some sophisticated methods for their estimates. And also, if Boeing's estimates of the future are highly suspect and their have their money on the line, what does that say about others and their agendas when they put out future predictions?
 

Polar742

All the responsibility none of the authority
But back to the estimate, I would imagine Boeing does not issue WAGs but uses some sophisticated methods for their estimates. And also, if Boeing's estimates of the future are highly suspect and their have their money on the line, what does that say about others and their agendas when they put out future predictions?
<thread creep> The Boeing Company also predicts that heavy lift cargo demand will exceed the supply, with a widening gap, over the next 20 years or so. I'm not holding my breath, but my fingers are crossed. ;) </creep>
 

falconvalley

Absentee Dad of the OOTSK, Runner, Cat Frustrator
And when one reads a bit more, one finds there is considerable debate of when all the oil will be gone. Many, including me, believes the correct analysis is when will relatively cheap oil being extracted with current technology as we know it be gone. And even that estimate is driven with more than just known/suspected oil reserves... lots of politics in the mix.

I am not saying there is an inexhaustible supply but I also don't think oil is like the dod0... a species that is endangered, almost extinct and that we will be down to watching the last well die. I am reminded a lot of mines are being re-0pened because new technology is allowing better extraction techniques which are less costly and thus the old mines, unprofitable by old methods, is profitable with new methods.

But back to the estimate, I would imagine Boeing does not issue WAGs but uses some sophisticated methods for their estimates. And also, if Boeing's estimates of the future are highly suspect and their have their money on the line, what does that say about others and their agendas when they put out future predictions?
I'm not really sure where you're going with this, Orange Anchor. The difference in debate between cheap oil and all oil has not quite reached the average consumer on a grand scale, yet. I think you need to read my posts in this thread a little more. I actually agree with you. I'm just very aware of the human tendecy to bank a little to steep on belief.
 
Top