BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
At least we are starting to understand each other.
Alaska opens new SAN pilot base
- Thread starter Cherokee_Cruiser
- Start date
At least we are starting to understand each other.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
First bid closing in hours.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Honestly it’s not this first bid that’s concerning. It’s the second one in the spring that’s effective Oct. By then, the first SAN snapshot will be out as a base. Plus, people will see how “senior” SFO and LAX remain and how SAN looks. And they’ll bid accordingly.
Richman
JC’s Resident Curmudgeon
This is a very tired meme.
Richman
JC’s Resident Curmudgeon
This is not.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Looks like they’ll have the result out sooner. Jan 6/7.
They've already cut 16ish% out of LAX and SFO. Hopefully there's not much more carnage to come.
ShortField
No one of consequence
I was thinking that as well. With their stated numbers for the next bid, it seems like there could be quite a few more vacancies than reductions.
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
Didn’t they say 20-25% for both SFO and LAX? The next bid will also have reductions in LAX and SFO.
BEEF SUPREME
Well-Known Member
They said 25% overall and they’d do it 1/2 the first and 1/2 the second.
So the next displacement/reduction will be another 100 pilots.
Hopefully not tho
So the next displacement/reduction will be another 100 pilots.
Hopefully not tho
They said 20-25%. Another 100 would be well beyond that mark. 25% would be another 40ish reductions. Hopefully it’s less than that. 20% would only be another 15 or so reductionsThey said 25% overall and they’d do it 1/2 the first and 1/2 the second.
So the next displacement/reduction will be another 100 pilots.
Hopefully not tho
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
They said 20-25%. Another 100 would be well beyond that mark. 25% would be another 40ish reductions. Hopefully it’s less than that. 20% would only be another 15 or so reductions
The rumor I heard was that LAX (surprisingly) cuts would be worse than SFO in terms of what’s published. Just a rumor.
I still see it as another net vacancy bid (like this one, as in vacancies > reductions). But a full 25% cut would mean LAX CAs total 200 and SFO CA total 160 remaining. It would mean SFO almost be ANC size.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
DM said the next bid will likely have 60 captains and 40 FOs for SAN. If done equally and via displacements only, that would be 30 captains and 20 FOs each from LAX and SFO. Whether they are planning to fill those via displacements only or some combination of hiring, upgrades, and displacements, I doubt even they know until they see what deliveries and bookings look like.
JDean3204
Well-Known Member
Here is my question. If one is too junior to slide to SAN, too junior to stay in SFO or LAX after bid 2…. Where do they end up? SEA by default? Right now SFO and LAX are our junior bases, if you can’t hold either of those after the bids something has to give. What the junior base will be is going to be interesting. I also wonder if they’ll expand PDX on the second bid…
This is mostly for FO’s, as there isn’t a downgrade option for us. CA is easier to track as they’ll just downgrade you on either defensive bid options or company discretion.
Edit** Also interesting to see where the new hires towards the end of Q1 go. They may end up in LAX or SFO just to get axed after the both bids shrink the bases. Then where do they go??
Cherokee_Cruiser
Bronteroc
If you’re too junior for SAN that most likely means enough senior guys bid out of SFO and LAX. Your scenario could only really play out if the majority of SAN was taken by SEA/PDX folks and I don’t see that as the case.
FOs will go where there are FO vacancies, whether published or proffered.
Roger Roger
Bottom of the list
SFO or SAN will end up the junior base for FOs I bet. LAX is weird because the most junior pilots in the company are there, but once you get past a few at the bottom it’s significantly senior to SFO. SAN is a wild card on the FO side. I literally have no idea what is going to happen. There was a rumor prior to the bid closing from my new hire class that there aren’t near enough people bidding SAN and so there are going to be a lot of displacements, but I have no idea if that’s true and if anyone who could actually see that data would have been talking.