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at http://www.atwonline.com/news/story.html?storyID=14130
<cite>Thursday September 25, 2008</cite> Boeing expects oil to stabilize at $70-$80 per barrel (in 2008 dollars) over the next 20 years, VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth told media in Sydney, adding that the company's forecasts have proven to be "quite accurate" this decade.
The manufacturer projects that by 2027 the global passenger and freighter fleet will comprise 2,630 regional jets (7%), 23,540 single-aisle aircraft (66%), 8,290 twin-aisle aircraft (23%) and 1,340 jumbo aircraft (4%). Total value is estimated to be $3.2 trillion.
Tinseth conceded that Boeing overestimated sales of jumbo aircraft (747s and A380s) and RJs in 2000 when it forecast the types would account for 5% and 19% of the market. As of August 2008 they represented 3% and 14% respectively. It underestimated sales of single-aisles (55% share projected) and twin-aisles (21%), with those figures now at 59% and 24% respectively. He said the actual numbers support the company's "point-to-point" emphasis despite the initial popularity of the A380 with passengers.
Going forward, he said the Asia/Pacific region will be the world's biggest market with 9,160 aircraft (31%) delivered through 2027. By value, because of the higher number of twin-aisles, the share will be 38% or $1.19 trillion. Boeing is forecasting annual GDP growth in the region of 4.1% and traffic growth of 6.7%.
Tinseth also suggested that the manufacturer will reenter the aircraft financing market after an absence of 18 months, as some traditional sources of financing have dried up.
<cite>Thursday September 25, 2008</cite> Boeing expects oil to stabilize at $70-$80 per barrel (in 2008 dollars) over the next 20 years, VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth told media in Sydney, adding that the company's forecasts have proven to be "quite accurate" this decade.
The manufacturer projects that by 2027 the global passenger and freighter fleet will comprise 2,630 regional jets (7%), 23,540 single-aisle aircraft (66%), 8,290 twin-aisle aircraft (23%) and 1,340 jumbo aircraft (4%). Total value is estimated to be $3.2 trillion.
Tinseth conceded that Boeing overestimated sales of jumbo aircraft (747s and A380s) and RJs in 2000 when it forecast the types would account for 5% and 19% of the market. As of August 2008 they represented 3% and 14% respectively. It underestimated sales of single-aisles (55% share projected) and twin-aisles (21%), with those figures now at 59% and 24% respectively. He said the actual numbers support the company's "point-to-point" emphasis despite the initial popularity of the A380 with passengers.
Going forward, he said the Asia/Pacific region will be the world's biggest market with 9,160 aircraft (31%) delivered through 2027. By value, because of the higher number of twin-aisles, the share will be 38% or $1.19 trillion. Boeing is forecasting annual GDP growth in the region of 4.1% and traffic growth of 6.7%.
Tinseth also suggested that the manufacturer will reenter the aircraft financing market after an absence of 18 months, as some traditional sources of financing have dried up.