The future of pilot jobs

Flyin_bryan said:
I think this is a good thread that may be headed in the wrong direction. Here are my thoughts.



I dont think that the above statement is adding to the conversation.

Talking about future oil prices going up is a VALID response in a thread about "the future of pilot jobs". State your opinion, have a dialouge, do not "you dont know much" anyone.



I find this to be a flawed statement. Current prices are a reflection of supply and demand in a free maket economy.



First of all, no one cares about how sick and tired planesiscool is. Second, if you are degrading the professionals in the journalism business I will have none of that. Third, some JC'ers may watch the news AND read newspapers AND have masters degrees AND are in the oil industry, your umbrella statements are unwelcome here.



I would be happy for anyone to post evidence of a major decline of oil demand.

For crude oil prices to begin a long term decline, one of three things will need to happen.
  1. Consumer demand will need to decline
  2. Investor demand will need to decline
  3. Global production will need to grow
We must then examine each of these and determine the likelihood of any of these occurring in the near future to determine if prices can reverse in any meaningful way.

Consumer Demand

Oil Bears often cite the fact that the US consumer is “cutting back” on gasoline consumption due to higher prices. While this may be true, the cut back is minimal at best. The latest EIA report shows the US consuming 9.343 million barrels of gasoline a day, down from last year’s 9.404 figure. That’s a whopping 0.65 %. Crude oil demand is expected to drop slightly in the US in 2008 by about 190,000 barrels per day (the US currently consumes over 21 million barrels of oil per day). However, this decrease has been more than offset by increased demand outside of North America. Chinese demand alone has increased by 400,000 barrels per day in 2008. Overall, global demand for oil is projected to rise 1.2 million barrels per day in 2008.

Investor Demand

The hedge fund industry currently controls more than $1.8 trillion in investor capital. And while the growth rate of hedge fund inflows slowed in Q1 of 2008, the industry continues to grow as a whole. Yet, while hedge funds are typically for the wealthy, the average investor now has access to the oil markets through the new Oil ETF’s, possibly the fastest growing segment of investor demand. Add to that the traditional oil futures trader and one has an army of hungry investors ready to pounce on the slightest bullish news story relating to oil. Gold and Silver have been the traditional choice for a hedge against a falling dollar and rising inflation. But with crude possessing the news headlines and a solid fundamental story, it has equaled or surpassed precious metals as the top choice for an inflation hedge. Europe’s bullish announcement on GDP growth in Q1 this week lent fresh strength to the Euro and should be one factor continuing to pressure the dollar in Q2. Crude should remain a top choice for investors in Q2 and Q3 2008.

Global Production

It can be argued that the entire bull case of crude oil is based on production. Crude demand is at a record and continues to rise. But demand for crude has steadily risen for the last 50 years, albeit not as rapidly as within the last 10. Rising demand is not a problem, as long as supplies rise in unison. In the US, production has fallen from 6.5 million barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day in 2008, a drop off of nearly 21%. The US has made up the difference in imports. However, with global demand jumping by nearly 20% in that same time period, producers have ramped up production to near maximum capacity. Yet, Russia, the world’s largest oil producer and second largest exporter saw production decline in Q1 2008.

OPEC production has hovered between 31-33 million barrels per day for the last four years. Yet oil prices have increased by nearly 200% during that same time period. Saudi Arabia, thought to be the only country left with any spare production capacity, has refused to increase production, even at the second request of President Bush this week. OPEC has kept output targets unchanged during its past three meetings despite oil surging $25 per barrel of the course of the meetings. Saudi Oil minister Ali al-Naimi blames “market turbulence,” not demand for higher prices.

Yes, you read that correctly.

If the product you are selling has increased in price by 200% in 4 years and you have not increased your output of that product during the same time, economics lead to only one explanation: You don’t have the product to provide. Economic sense would dictate that with oil at $125 a barrel, Saudi Arabia and OPEC would be pumping all the oil and using all of the excess capacity they have in order to capitalize on the higher prices. It lends a load of credibility to the argument that Saudi excess capacity has been exaggerated and that there is a reason they are not operating at maximum capacity. It could be because they are already operating at maximum capacity.

Despite bullish fundamentals that do not appear to be changing anytime soon, oil prices have raced up dramatically which will leave the market prone to sharp waves of speculator liquidation.



Lastly, I agree with your final statement, but arrive at a different conclusion. Gas prices wont stay at $4/gal for long, they will far surpass that mark. Goldman Sachs this week raised its forecast for crude oil to $141 per barrel in the second half of 2008 and forecast $148 oil for 2009.
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uh.....yeah.
1. Consumer demand will need to decline.
Or the dollar will have to gain back some of its value. You see my friend the dollar has done nothing but slide in value since september and billions upon billions of dollars have been poured into oil as a hedge against inflation. This has artificially inflated the value of a barrel of oil which is traded in dollars which is causing a bubble. Oh yeah this is happening in the US and when the US stops buying tons of Chinese and Indian Exports those economies will slow as well.
2. Investor demand will need to decline
As the dollar gains back its value investors will start a commodity sell off this has been how the commodity market has behaved for a very long time. I will certainly concede I don't know when this will happen and I don't deny that oil couldn't go as high as $200/bbl but the higher it goes the harder it will fall. Here is a helpful article you should read about the recent influx of investment into commodities:
http://www.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUSSYD30571420080519
3. Global production will need to grow.
Or domestic production or both. This is my favorite part right here. See because Brazil has found a lot of oil and gas in the Tupi and Cariocha fields off their coasts. Also in the US we have billions of barrels of oil in the gulf and in the Bakken Formation under Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota and Manitoba/Saskatchewan Canada. The Bakken is difficult but the technology to produce the oil from their exists because our company is one of the ones that makes it.

I want to address your Goldman Sachs issue. I don't trust those people as far as I can throw them because they have alot of money tied up in commodity funds right now. It's interesting to me that they make these predictions like oil is going to be $200/bbl and the price of oil shoots up $5/bbl. I have read they have pumped $80 billion dollars into commodities such as oil and that they have a great influence in that area right now. I'm not saying it is a grand conspiracy but after the housing debacle anything is possible. I can't find the articles that I have read about Goldman Sachs' influence in commodities but I did find this article which may help: http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKN1731496220070917

I agree I lashed out at Boris and it was unwarranted and probably a little inappropriate and I have apologized to him. However, your journalist comment is retarded, there is no other word. The news reports doom and gloom constantly because that is what sells.
 
The discussion of oil is really interesting... a bit off topic, but very interesting nonetheless.
I wouldn't profess to say that airline execs are our countries brightest business leaders but...
If those at the top thought oil would long term come down to a more 'reasonable' level (whatever that may be) I somehow doubt they'd be placing a 1200> fuse backlog on the 787.

This is just my opinion, as I know little about oil other than its costing me more at the pumps.

Oh and in keeping with the thread I haven't heard the age 65 and its potential impact mentioned. Anecdotally its keeping me from a widebody.
 
VF-213 said:
I wouldn't profess to say that airline execs are our countries brightest business leaders but...
If those at the top thought oil would long term come down to a more 'reasonable' level (whatever that may be) I somehow doubt they'd be placing a 1200> fuse backlog on the 787.
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FWIW UAL's recovery plan assumed oil was at $55/bbl. I don't think any execs saw oil climbing to these levels.
 
Wow, I'm gone for a couple of days and a six page post appears. Chris_Ford, all I have to say is WOW! You must hate this industry so much. I empathize with you, however, I am not in your industry. I do not have a choice to leave my underpaying job, so I slug it out everyday and will continue so until I retire. Keep hating your industry...Then in about six years, when you are fed up and want to move to that cushy every-day-is-happy $100K job you want more than anything else(because the grass is always greener on the other side), leave a slot open for me! :D

Wittmandriver
 
I really don't see why people think Chris hates the industry. He really hasn't said anything too negative about it. In fact, for the most part he's a whole lot less "boo hoo hoo my job sucks" then many people on here.

He's giving a VERY realistic view of what this job is like. There are many people out there who don't want to believe it could be like that because it's their dream job, and there is no way their dream job could not be perfect. So they equate what he is saying to complaining to avoid the possibility that it may not all be all rainbows and unicorns.

It's a job people. It's a hell of a lot better then any other job I've ever had (except maybe working as a video game tester) but at the end of the day there are always going to be things people aren't happy about with it. Don't come into this job thinking it is going to be perfect and having these hugely unattainable expectations. Sure, you may be one of those people like Lloyd who really is (or at least seems to be) really 110% happy, but chances are, even if this is what you have wanted to do since you were 2 years old, some part about it is going to be less then perfect.
 
I'm gonna come to Chris's defense here too. His post was far from whiny. There are things that are not so good about this industry. Does that mean that anyone is telling anyone else not to bother being a pilot? No, it just means that it's good to go into a career with all available information. One can hear and acknowledge the "bad" things without it being whiny or complaining. There are many positive things too! But I think it's important to hear all sides.
 
Boris Badenov said:
What's most poignant for me is the absolute, undiluted fact that no one will ever listen. There is no 20-something year old kid who is going to hear you when you say "yeah but" about the flying lifestyle. Not one.
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Make it one. After a while you start to realize that the people saying "watch out, it's not always as great as you might hope" are the ones who are there, and know what they're talking about.

Most of those saying "go for it and chase your dreams" are the same people who are just now getting started in flying.

As a side note, the pay at my first instructing job was embarrassing. But I jumped at it because I just wanted to start getting some teaching experience. When I moved back to school and started my current instructing job, the pay was so much better in comparison that I jumped at that too...

Now I'm not dying to fly every possible hour I can, and I realize I really shot myself in the foot by jumping at the pay. I love instructing, but it is certainly a job at this point, and I'm getting paid as if it's purely for fun. It is a frustrating feeling, and takes a lot of the fun out of flying.

Some of the voices here are simply encouraging others to consider that feeling. I certainly wish I would have heard the same.
 
True dat.

You have no idea what this job might bring you, and it's important to know what might happen.

If I had gone to Republic instead of Amflight, I'd be in upgrade right now. I didn't, so I spent almost a year there, and now almost a year at a regional. Now I'm facing furlough after commuting to reserve for the last 9 months.

That's life. It's not good, it's not bad, it's what happened. And both situations COULD happen to any of ya'll new guys out there, and it's good to know that both could happen.

When I got hired, people were screaming "18 month upgrades, 18 month upgrades!" I told them, "Erm, guys, I dunno if that's gonna happen here..." and they called me a pessimist. Now 9 months into the company and we can't even hold a line in one of the most junior bases.

Know THE WHOLE STORY before you get into this career, because depending on what happens to you, you could have a very good, or a VERY bad career. There are guys that have been at Continental that are finally upgrading after 15 years, and there are guys that have been at Continental that are upgrading after 2 years beacuse of how fast things have moved. Understand both situations could happen to you.
 
Hey, I see where both sides are coming from. I am old enough and experienced enough to see that and I value it. I am, however, looking at flying being an addition to my pension in six years and have no aspiration for the evil airlines. I say that not from a worker standpoint, but from a GA guy looking at the regional and major airlines and their corporate greed trying their hardest to shove me (the little guy-skeeter on their windshield) aside.

Now, to continue this discussion, if anyone would like to open forum or PM me about aerial application, seaplanes, small airline (such as West Isle Air), or career instructing, I am all ears.

Wittmandriver.
 
As soon as that gun goes off, he's gonna lose that right thumb!

JEP said:
meet the newest FFDO.

love_monkey_x.jpg


:)
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You wanna know the secret to this industry?

Stay away from the airlines.

There I said it.


I've have met very and I mean VERY few airline guys who still like there job after doing it for 5+ years. Many of the guys I'm talking about went straight to the airlines after flight instructing and didn't get a taste of whats outside that segment of the industry. I can see why you guys flying for both the majors and regionals are unhappy.

Hell, the worst part of my current gig is having to ride in the back a few times a month.

I was lucky enough to never have any desire to go fly for an Airline(besides maybe a heavy cargo gig in the future) and because of that I've gotten to try a variety of jobs in aviation.

135 passenger operations, fractionals, charter, corporate, cargo, air medivac, aerial survey, Flight instruction and others.

These jobs give you something that the airlines dont. The fact that when you work for a place like this your not a number, your a person and a valued employee and somebody who people put trust in to get a job done. Your someone they count on and someone in whose hands they place a large amount of responsibilty and trust. Not someone who can be replaced with a phone call.

Everything from scheduling MX, to weather planning, etc.. You're not just driving the bus anymore. Your really in charge of it and you get to use all those skill facets that you learned in training.


This is what I tell everyone when they think about getting into this business.

The lows in aviation are really really low and the highs can be really really high. At the beginning your gonna be poor as hell for years. But if you're a good guy and a decent aviator you can make it and eventually after YEARS of work and sacrifice youll start to make a few bucks and things will turn around.

I know plenty of guys who have gotten out of aviation and fly for fun on the side but everyone of them tells me they do miss flying, not the being free as a bird to floate on silver colored wings idea of romantic flying, but the comraderie and just being around airplanes. It may not be as glorious and glamorous as it used to be but it is still a unique and fun job that gives you opportunities to do things that most people will never be able to.

I've been on both sides of the "hump" I've lived in my car and showered at the gym before i wen't to work. I worked, at times, 3 jobs while CFI'ing to make rent. I've flown 14 hour days for months and spent months at a time away from home. And looking back I wouldn't change much except for maybe not rushing to get where I am so fast.

As for the future of pilot jobs...I dont know. I think we are certain to see more furloughs and consolidations as airlines shut down and fuel prices keep having a bigger and bigger impact on the carriers. So at least in my eyes the future of aviation in the USA is going to be rough for a few years until capacity is reduced. I think you'll start to see slot systems in place at the major class B airports which will decrease the need for Pilots as we start seeing more large aircraft doing less flights per day as opposed to many flights for RJ's. Unfortunatly as these guys are pushed out they will soak up many of the non-airline jobs. Aviation has always been cyclical. Most agree its about a ten year cycle from low to high back to low. The problem now is the high only lasted about a year until this recent crunch happened and we dont know how long its going to last.

So I guess to answer the original question....nobody really knows what the future of flying is going to be except that, its gonna be bad for a while. Then itll probably be good again. Then itll probably be bad.

If you do hear anything that somebody tells you is 100% certain in this industry its probably Kit Darby. In which case RUN do not walk away.
 
bhh1128 said:
Make it one. After a while you start to realize that the people saying "watch out, it's not always as great as you might hope" are the ones who are there, and know what they're talking about.

Most of those saying "go for it and chase your dreams" are the same people who are just now getting started in flying.

As a side note, the pay at my first instructing job was embarrassing. But I jumped at it because I just wanted to start getting some teaching experience. When I moved back to school and started my current instructing job, the pay was so much better in comparison that I jumped at that too...

Now I'm not dying to fly every possible hour I can, and I realize I really shot myself in the foot by jumping at the pay. I love instructing, but it is certainly a job at this point, and I'm getting paid as if it's purely for fun. It is a frustrating feeling, and takes a lot of the fun out of flying.

Some of the voices here are simply encouraging others to consider that feeling. I certainly wish I would have heard the same.
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Make that two! I'm going to work while I get my ratings and if the industry just absolutely tanks I'll pull out for awhile.
 
Chris_Ford said:
1) I'm not engaged
2) I'd be saying this regardless of what my situation is in the industry.

Look, when you're playing Flight Sim this seems like a really cool job. And it is. Everything you do below 10,000 is reasonably fun. It's the BS outside of the job. The reduced rest overnights, the working on Thanksgiving and Christmas. The fact that my W2 last year was around $20,000, about $7 less than I paid in TAXES the previous year. The fact that you have to take a paycut to go anywhere, and there's no job security anywhere.

Go be an accountant and buy a kickass 310 and fly somewhere on the weekends
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Don't fly in the states is the thing. Fly in alaska, or in Africa or something, then you can be down low and slow and having fun. Work for a small enough company and you don't have to worry about working on holidays, and you have decent job security. I make $40/hr at 1140TT working at a mom and pop alaska air taxi and I have way more fun than I had in 600hrs in the right seat of a 1900. I get paid better, work less, and have a place to stay when I'm in Kodiak, my girlfriend loves it because I can pay the bills, and because we can get free jumpseat on the local airline. Career development? Well, I'll be in the King Air when the company buys it, I'll be on floats next summer, and I'll fly the Aztec a little in the winter. Is it a CRJ? No. Will I have fun and make more money, and also learn valuable tools for keeping myself alive? You betcha. Go local, have fun, its the way to go.
 
Chris_Ford said:
1) I'm not engaged
2) I'd be saying this regardless of what my situation is in the industry.

Look, when you're playing Flight Sim this seems like a really cool job. And it is. Everything you do below 10,000 is reasonably fun. It's the BS outside of the job. The reduced rest overnights, the working on Thanksgiving and Christmas. The fact that my W2 last year was around $20,000, about $7 less than I paid in TAXES the previous year. The fact that you have to take a paycut to go anywhere, and there's no job security anywhere.

Go be an accountant and buy a kickass 310 and fly somewhere on the weekends
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Wait a minute. You had a job where you paid more in TAXES than what you're currently earning? So you came to this job, why??

===============================================
To All,

I said it in another thread, and I'll say it again. Flying professionally is a lot different than flying recreationally. When I fly for fun, I get to fly where I want, when I want, and how I want. I never have to worry about flying when I'm tired, because I can just decide to not go. I don't have to fly at night or around bad weather if I don't want to. I don't have to fly over hazardous terrain talking to controllers who have a minimal understanding of English. I can be in town when I want to be, and generally don't have the FAA/company looking over my shoulders all the time. When I fly professionally, all those perks go out the window, and I become a means to an end for generating corporate profits. Generating profits for a company who would throw me out on the street in a heartbeat and not look back. I love flying, I really do, but please give yourself a reality check before sacrificing what you already have to do this for a living. Because like I said, flying for fun and flying for a job are totally different animals. Be sure to also talk to people in the industry who don't post on forums like this--you'll gain a bigger picture that way.

Not that aviation is the only industry that will screw it's employees in favor of the almighty dollar. I see middle class America withering away across the board with more corporations offering meager pay, dismal retirement, fewer benefits, less job security--this is the reality we live in, aviation or not. Aviation is a brutal industry, but so it corporate America as a whole. I'm proud to be able to say I also serve in the military (reserves). Through my service, I'm able to do more than just maximize somebody else's bottom dollar, I know what I'm doing is important and makes a difference for the country as a whole. Unfortunately, through two jobs I'm rarely in one place for longer than a couple of days, which would make a family life very difficult if not impossible for me right now. That's another thing to weigh, because in this business you will be gone from home much more than if you had a regular 9-5 job.

There's been plenty of input here, you still have to look at your whole situation and decide what floats your boat. You only live life once, so do what makes you happy. I've read some rather bitter posts from some other 20-somethings on this board, I thought you had to be 50+ before you could be that bitter :D 20s are supposed to be a time to find your way in life and take risks--nobody has it all figured out by the time they're 30. Just try not to screw yourself by making an uninformed decision and taking on huge amounts of debt at the expense of everything else you may have going for you. I do think that If I had a good, stable job/career outside of aviation that I was happy with, I'd probably think twice about giving that up to fly for any reason other than pleasure. But if you're unhappy doing what you're currently doing sitting in an office and you know what the pilot's lifestyle entails, then perhaps flying is worth a second look.

BTW, the state of this industry in 5-10 years is anyone's guess, trying to predict the ups and downs is like trying to time the stock market (if we knew how to do it, we'd all be millionaires!) Good luck!
 
1-2 years ago if you came to the board you saw threads such as:

go to XX or YY regional?
upgrade question
0 to captain possible in 2 years?
where can i go with x TT and so much multi

now it's
stay at my 'office space' job or fly
xx is offering COLA's
xx and yy are MERGING!!!! OMGzzz

when things go bad, people think it's the end of the world.

but #### would you rather work in a cubicle making 50k a year or fly that airplane for the same $$? knowing if you didn't go into aviation you'd wake up 300 days out of the year and say "what if..."

would you rather complain about the reduced rest or your boss asking you to come in on a saturday or stay and work overtime?


Hell what do I know. I'm 19 with my PPL, my major is professional flight...according to many here my life is done. I <3 JC but dammm people are getting negative around here. YOU knew the risks before getting involved with this career.
 
PGT said:
1-2 years ago if you came to the board you saw threads such as:

go to XX or YY regional?
upgrade question
0 to captain possible in 2 years?
where can i go with x TT and so much multi

now it's
stay at my 'office space' job or fly
xx is offering COLA's
xx and yy are MERGING!!!! OMGzzz

when things go bad, people think it's the end of the world.

but #### would you rather work in a cubicle making 50k a year or fly that airplane for the same $$? knowing if you didn't go into aviation you'd wake up 300 days out of the year and say "what if..."

would you rather complain about the reduced rest or your boss asking you to come in on a saturday or stay and work overtime?


Hell what do I know. I'm 19 with my PPL, my major is professional flight...according to many here my life is done. I <3 JC but dammm people are getting negative around here. YOU knew the risks before getting involved with this career.
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As folks have said, it's VERY easy to say that when you're on the outside looking in, and a lot different when you're living the life.

Reduced rest overnights are no joke. You really think it's safe, or smart or fun to operate for 16 hours (flying 8 of those), then get 5 hours of sleep and do that again the next day? While you're thinking to yourself, "Huh, I'm kinda groggy, but probably shouldn't call in fatigued, but I better not screw up or this whole career is over..." Or let me try to see if I can make this as clear as possible.

The professionals that you think are being negative are not, in fact, being negative. They're telling you exactly what they see on a daily basis. If you think it's negative, and if it spoils the concepts that you have of this job, you may want to reconsider doing this professionally. We're not trying to bag on you guys, we're trying to give you a straight, no BS description of how this gig goes, and you can chose to listen or you can chose to put your head in the sand. It's your choice.
 
I think I have a good idea of what to expect, as do many other 'outsiders' that frequent this board but it has become like a broken record.
training questions get responses such as "STAY AWAY if you enjoy life" "uhh thanks for the help?"

it might seem like people aren't listening but I guarantee you a lot of them are
 
PGT said:
I think I have a good idea of what to expect, as do many other 'outsiders' that frequent this board but it has become like a broken record.
training questions get responses such as "STAY AWAY if you enjoy life" "uhh thanks for the help?"

it might seem like people aren't listening but I guarantee you a lot of them are
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You don't, actually.

I thought I did, I was wrong.
 
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