Pilot Shortage - How Long Will It Go On?

DeltaAVL

DeltaAVL

New Member
Hey guys,

I was thinking about my future (prospective) career and the employment opportunities that will be available then. By the time I'm finished with school/training and everything, I'm estimating I'll be applying to the airlines in 2014.

So, obviously there are some big-time pilot shortages at the regional carriers now, but will they still be short of pilots in 2014? How long is this pilot shortage, and its reduced minimums, going to last?
 
For 2014 Ask the crystal ball.

But my opinion is this: The shortage will last until they pay better, plain and simple.

Otherwise I would have put an application in 400 hours ago.
 
I agree with BDhill. Now that CFI pay is actually rising the incentive to jumpship to a low-paying regional isn't quite as strong as it was say, 3-4 years ago. The regionals, especially the lower paying ones, will continue to struggle to find pilots unless they increase their pay. Once they do that, magically they will have no shortage of qualified applicants.
 
Alchemy said:
I agree with BDhill. Now that CFI pay is actually rising the incentive to jumpship to a low-paying regional isn't quite as strong as it was say, 3-4 years ago. The regionals, especially the lower paying ones, will continue to struggle to find pilots unless they increase their pay. Once they do that, magically they will have no shortage of qualified applicants.
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:yeahthat:
 
As CFI pay increases the cost of training also increases, thus further restricting the supply of pilots. IMO, the shortage is yet to come.

I feel that in the next few years we will see a significant increase in first year pay.
 
Don't forget the next new thing: user fees!! Soon we'll have the same cost of training that all of Europe enjoys, except most airlines in Europe pay for it for their pilot candidates (as I understand it.)

Oh well, even if there are user fees the next guys along the line won't need to pay them too much because all of their training will be done in simulators, hello MPL!
 
No one really knows.

But I agree with what the others have said.


I get paid better and log more hours each month as a CFI than I will for the first 2 years at the Regional level in a CRJ.
 
Spiral All airlines DO NOT pay for their FO. Most airlines in Euope (and watch the trend... it might happen in the US) ask or will hire you as a FO if you pay them to get a TR! (too many newbies trying to get to the big airliners, also it might happen in the US)

Also watch the MCL (multi crew license) I think is the new STAN!

Is good that FI are getting a pay rise, well deserve. I remember the 5$/h days

I think in the future Airline pilot will be the worst pay then FI the Corporate and it does make more sense.
The passenger do not care who flies (the government is taking care of it) they just want a cheap seat.
The business jet people DO care greatly that is why the pay thousands of dollars for their jet.
The students do not know any better is just a market economy.

To answer the question.....there is no way of telling. Too many factors oil, wars, economies, just too many.
 
Always Moving said:
Spiral All airlines DO NOT pay for their FO. Most airlines in Euope (and watch the trend... it might happen in the US) ask or will hire you as a FO if you pay them to get a TR! (too many newbies trying to get to the big airliners, also it might happen in the US)
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I agree with everything you say. Alot of of the smaller regional airlines require you to pay for type rating but with Europes tax system you get a lot of that back because it is considered educational. Also for example Aer Arann in Ireland flying ATR ($25,000 Euro type rating) you will be getting $45,000 Euro first year. Aer Lingus who also take on low time pilots (they pay type rating) start at $57,000 Euro.

On the opposite end you have Ryanair who pay you $17,000 Euro first year even though you paid $27,000 Euro for a type rating.
 
Repeat after me. There is no shortage. There will be no shortage.

The airlines feed the "airline pilot shortage" to the media for 1 reason: It makes new guys blow their cash to jump in so there is no shortage.

The mins fluctuate to fill the need which prevents a shortage. As the number of applicants drop to the FAA mins (due to low pay, not a shortage) the plan will be to get the FAA on board with the MPL.

Plan A: New pilot will pay for MPL.

Plan B: New pilot will enter a cost share training agreement with an airline to obtain a MPL.

Plan C: Airline will pay full cost of MPL and require training agreement.

Not in any plan: Raise pilot pay to attract applicants.

The airlines have run the numbers. Worst case plan C; Airline pays full cost of MPL training is cheaper than raising pilot pay. They think however they will be able to use plan A. It's a no-brainer money saver. The future pay for a pilot career has no where to go from here but down.

Don't buy it? Jumpseat to Washington D.C. ; get a cab to drop you off here: 1300 19th Street, N.W., Suite 750

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=1300+19th+St+NW,+Washington,+DC+20036,+USA&sa=X&oi=map&ct=title

Then hang with these guys for a week or so:

http://www.aircon.org/what_is_aircon/index_staff.htm

You will then understand why the pay will NEVER come back. It will be the most enlightening week of your life. Oh by the way the airlines need a stop gap measure because it will probably take 5 years or so to get this all in place. Let's see, what could they do? ( hint: 65 )

If they are able to get enough takers for plan A it will also save them significant money over the traditional new hire due to the tiny training footprint once hired. These 0 time-right seat 737/57 Airbus FOs will have ( in their mind ) paid their dues in cash upfront to skip the traditional routes. Meanwhile guys paying their dues the old way coming up through the ranks or military will refuse to pay twice. They will not get the nod because the job requirements will be ATP PIC type or SIC type or MPL with acft type.

WARNING: If you really want to fly airliners and do not care if it will ever make financial sense just put your head in the sand and DO NOT be informed.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfJV9GykVeL04PW0j_RD3A7O_STA
 
seaav8or,

I think you've hit the nail right on the head. The Age 65 legislation will push back any real shortage 5 years. It will also make YOUR upgrade take 5 years longer if you're not in the left seat today.
 
LoadMasterC141 said:
Forgive my ignorance but what is an MPL?
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It is a certificate where you are trained to basically fly one aircraft like a Boeing 737 or Airbus 319 for an airline. From start to finish of your training you are in school to fly that airplane.

You get certified to fly it at 200 hours or so.

Pretty scary stuff.
 
Thanks Seggy.

Oh and I cannot believe noone gave the standard JC answer to this yet:

There is no pilot shortage, just a lack of pilots willing to work for beans at Regionals.
 
I heard over the weekend of a Major Cargo carrier discussing hiring off the street (NO PPL) to hire and move towards a 6 year agreement with them.

Its starting to get interesting..

:banghead:
 
DeltaAVL said:
there are some big-time pilot shortages at the regional carriers now, but will they still be short of pilots in 2014?
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We'll be very short of pilots in 2014... armageddon short.

Did anyone watch the show on the History Channel about the "Mayan Calendar"? They said the world is supposed to end in 2013.

I think that French guy, Nostradumba$$ said something about it too...
 
ClearedForOption said:
We'll be very short of pilots in 2014... armageddon short.

Did anyone watch the show on the History Channel about the "Mayan Calendar"? They said the world is supposed to end in 2013.

I think that French guy, Nostradumba$$ said something about it too...
Click to expand...
December 21 ,2012 is the end of the world according to the Mayan calender. I have it blocked off on my schedule already.
 
Thanks to everyone for the replies, and I guess there's really no way to tell what the industry's going to look like from so far out. We'll just have to wait and see what it brings me. :)
 
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