United/JetBlue Rumor Mill

jtrain609 said:
It's not possible after McCaskill-Bond was passed. We wouldn't even get there, because as you point out it's a pair of ALPA carriers, but there's also a statutory limitation on stapling one seniority list to another.

But the reality is that pilots are •, so try not to put too much stock in what they say.
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I’m drinking beers and eating sushi in SAN, so I’m too lazy to look it up, but if memory serves there’s multiple pillars to a ALPA merger seniority list integration with one being expected career progression.

I think one of the arguments by United pilots (which I do believe is fair) is that JetBlue pilots never expected widebodies and shouldn’t jump United pilots into them.

If a merger happens (again big if) I can’t imagine the United pilot group would support a 1 to 1 integration because of the above. Those United pilots calling for a staple is ridiculously out of touch also. I foresee (cart way before horse) some kind of agreement where it’s one to one into NBs but some type of fence into the widebodies.

None of this is ideal, it’s all hypothetical, and no one is going to be 100 percent happy, but that’s just my 2 cents.
 
Maximilian_Jenius said:
Elimination of DEI programs at UA, is going to be the impetus to allow the merger.
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Le sigh…

DEI issues at United are about as real as this trade war that is now blowing up my 401k.

I wasn’t counting on it anyway. I was always on the powerball/scratch off retirement plan.
 
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I just reread my above post and wanted to be very clear there is no DEI issue at United in case there was any confusion with the way I wrote it.

One scumbag IAH CA may disagree with that, but no one takes her seriously anyway.
 
jhugz said:
I’m drinking beers and eating sushi in SAN, so I’m too lazy to look it up, but if memory serves there’s multiple pillars to a ALPA merger seniority list integration with one being expected career progression.

I think one of the arguments by United pilots (which I do believe is fair) is that JetBlue pilots never expected widebodies and shouldn’t jump United pilots into them.

If a merger happens (again big if) I can’t imagine the United pilot group would support a 1 to 1 integration because of the above. Those United pilots calling for a staple is ridiculously out of touch also. I foresee (cart way before horse) some kind of agreement where it’s one to one into NBs but some type of fence into the widebodies.

None of this is ideal, it’s all hypothetical, and no one is going to be 100 percent happy, but that’s just my 2 cents.
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It won't be a 1 to 1 integration.

JetBlue would start below the widebody FO's, not by who holds it, but by total seats available.

So say JetBlue starts at 3,000 or 4,000, and then would integrate with the 737's and A320's. The actual question ends up being whether the A321 is equal to a 757, and that would be up for debate.

The three items that ALPA merger policy looks at at longevity, career expectations, and category and status.

There would be fences around widebodies for a few years, but nobody is doing long fences after the disaster that redbook/greenbook was.
 
jhugz said:
Honestly, if it has any chance of happening, it needs to happen in the next 4 years.

Our CEO has been going to some presidential dinners at the white house. Shouldn't hurt with the supreme leader.
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Makes sense why there was a ticker on Fox with Kirby standing there saying he supported the tariffs, then.

Not to derail, but delta donated 1mm to the Trump inauguration fund, because reasons.
 
jtrain609 said:
It won't be a 1 to 1 integration.

JetBlue would start below the widebody FO's, not by who holds it, but by total seats available.

So say JetBlue starts at 3,000 or 4,000, and then would integrate with the 737's and A320's. The actual question ends up being whether the A321 is equal to a 757, and that would be up for debate.

The three items that ALPA merger policy looks at at longevity, career expectations, and category and status.

There would be fences around widebodies for a few years, but nobody is doing long fences after the disaster that redbook/greenbook was.
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What would you crystal ball say as far as our (HA/AS) SLI going? Something similar?
 
jtrain609 said:
It won't be a 1 to 1 integration.

JetBlue would start below the widebody FO's, not by who holds it, but by total seats available.

So say JetBlue starts at 3,000 or 4,000, and then would integrate with the 737's and A320's. The actual question ends up being whether the A321 is equal to a 757, and that would be up for debate.

The three items that ALPA merger policy looks at at longevity, career expectations, and category and status.

There would be fences around widebodies for a few years, but nobody is doing long fences after the disaster that redbook/greenbook was.
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In my humble opinion, this take is exactly right in this fictional scenario.
 
jhugz said:
Le sigh…

DEI issues at United are about as real as this trade war that is now blowing up my 401k.

I wasn’t counting on it anyway. I was always on the powerball/scratch off retirement plan.
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jhugz said:
I just reread my above post and wanted to be very clear there is no DEI issue at United in case there was any confusion with the way I wrote it.

One scumbag IAH CA may disagree with that, but no one takes her seriously anyway.
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Sorry for the confusion regarding my post. I wasn't stating that there are any DEI related issues at UA. What I was stating was that possibly as a condition of the current administration approving a merger between US/B6. That Trump... I really mean Stephen Miller, would demand that UA eliminate its DEI program.

This same scenario is occurring nationwide with business, colleges/universities and local schools that have DEI initiatives, as a requirement to get federal monies. Paramount as yet another example wants a merger with Skydance and one of the condition was that Paramount kiss the ring and only have good reporting on Trump, from here on out. As a direct result, look for that merger to be approved shortly.
 
Skåning said:
What would you crystal ball say as far as our (HA/AS) SLI going? Something similar?
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Ain't too much guesswork involved here, this is how it's done. Go back and read previous arbitration awards and it's fairly cut and dried.

You get outlier every once in a while, like United pilots being given credit for time on furlough with the Continental merger, but this stuff is all fairly predictable these days.
 
I find it hard to believe that a DOJ - whether it be R or D, approves a merger with significant overlap in the NYC metroplex without substantial divestitures.

Remember the United/USAir merger attempt in 2000 was turned down due to overlap between USAir's DCA hub and United's IAD hub.

And that was WITH a prepackaged divestiture that would have created DCAir out of the divestitures - which would have had Robert Johnson (then chairman of Black Entertainment Television) as CEO, making it the first minority owned airline in the country.

I'm not saying it'll never happen, just that they're going to have to be super creative to get it past the DOJ.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
I find it hard to believe that a DOJ - whether it be R or D, approves a merger with significant overlap in the NYC metroplex without substantial divestitures.

Remember the United/USAir merger attempt in 2000 was turned down due to overlap between USAir's DCA hub and United's IAD hub.

And that was WITH a prepackaged divestiture that would have created DCAir out of the divestitures - which would have had Robert Johnson (then chairman of Black Entertainment Television) as CEO, making it the first minority owned airline in the country.

I'm not saying it'll never happen, just that they're going to have to be super creative to get it past the DOJ.
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There are a lot of things that happen in the government today that no one from 20 years ago would recognize. I dont think you are wrong though. The AA/JB alliance was shot down and that wasnt anything other than a few specific airports and not a total merger. So how a full merger that would give one airline control over two NYC airport is hard to fathom. Pretty much everyone knows the key to the current admin and that is consistent, public praise, and if you do that anything is a possibility.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
I find it hard to believe that a DOJ - whether it be R or D, approves a merger with significant overlap in the NYC metroplex without substantial divestitures.

Remember the United/USAir merger attempt in 2000 was turned down due to overlap between USAir's DCA hub and United's IAD hub.

And that was WITH a prepackaged divestiture that would have created DCAir out of the divestitures - which would have had Robert Johnson (then chairman of Black Entertainment Television) as CEO, making it the first minority owned airline in the country.

I'm not saying it'll never happen, just that they're going to have to be super creative to get it past the DOJ.
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Kingairer said:
There are a lot of things that happen in the government today that no one from 20 years ago would recognize. I dont think you are wrong though. The AA/JB alliance was shot down and that wasnt anything other than a few specific airports and not a total merger. So how a full merger that would give one airline control over two NYC airport is hard to fathom. Pretty much everyone knows the key to the current admin and that is consistent, public praise, and if you do that anything is a possibility.
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Give up 100 slots in EWR and a handful in JFK. United vacates terminal A in EWR.
 
ZapBrannigan said:
And that was WITH a prepackaged divestiture that would have created DCAir out of the divestitures - which would have had Robert Johnson (then chairman of Black Entertainment Television) as CEO, making it the first minority owned airline in the country.
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Maybe that's the real reason that the merger didn't get approved!

Kidding. Maybe.
 
killbilly said:
B6 doesn’t *need* those slots in EWR. It needs general northeastern relief.

Or are you saying UA just gives up the slots in general, not to B6?
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I'm saying to get a merger past the DOJ, United will give up 100 Newark slots to a combined airlines total presence in the New York area.
 
Maximilian_Jenius said:
Sorry for the confusion regarding my post. I wasn't stating that there are any DEI related issues at UA. What I was stating was that possibly as a condition of the current administration approving a merger between US/B6. That Trump... I really mean Stephen Miller, would demand that UA eliminate its DEI program.

This same scenario is occurring nationwide with business, colleges/universities and local schools that have DEI initiatives, as a requirement to get federal monies. Paramount as yet another example wants a merger with Skydance and one of the condition was that Paramount kiss the ring and only have good reporting on Trump, from here on out. As a direct result, look for that merger to be approved shortly.
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Not your fault at all. I just reread my post after the edit window closed and thought someone could misinterpret it and wanted to make my stance crystal clear.
 
jtrain609 said:
Ain't too much guesswork involved here, this is how it's done. Go back and read previous arbitration awards and it's fairly cut and dried.

You get outlier every once in a while, like United pilots being given credit for time on furlough with the Continental merger, but this stuff is all fairly predictable these days.
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Except more than half of the Hawaiian seniority list are WB pilots. I don't see a world where an arbitrator starts the first AS pilot at 50%.
 
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