Oh Boeing… again 🤬

Getting rid of the 757 will be the dumbest thing Boeing ever did.

In hindsight yes, but it's complicated.

When the decision was made to kill it, orders had dried up for over a year. The 757 was already in its conception a bit of a niche airplane, and by 2003 everyone that needed its capabilities already got them. The post 9-11 landscape didn't help either pushing risk adverse operators to stick with smaller, more fuel efficient 737s and 320s. That can be seen with Continental converting their last 757-300 order to 737-800, putting essentially the nail in the coffin for the program. 20 years later the 757-300 is the biggest cash cow here at SJI (welcome aboard by the way, I never got the chance to congratulate you in the other thread!). Nobody could have predicted the resurgence of that market segment in two decades. Or maybe they could have, that could be attributed to short sightedness. They did nail the 787 market segment after all.

But even if they did they would face a new issue: engines. Nobody makes next generation engines in that thrust class. The PW2000 makes 40k lb of thrust to push along a 255k lb 757-200 to a range of 3,900nm. Rolls Royce birds pack a bit more punch too around 43k if I recall. Compare that to an A321LR that also has a similar range of 4,000nm but weighs 214k lb and the Pratt GTF has a thrust of 33k lbs. Simar thrust to weight but the 757 wing makes all the difference in performance because it was designed for that size and weight of aircraft from the get go. When I was working on a few concept designs for the new MOM aircraft, I was told nobody wants to commit to build a new engine in the 40k lbs thrust class because it would be used only on that single model and it's too much risk. Current LEAP / GTF aren't powerful enough and using something like a derated GenX or Trent (which was considered) ended up negating any benefit when you're dragging all that extra weight and frontal area around without using its full power. The design desperately needed new engines because an A321NEO burns 10,000 lbs of fuel less than a 757 on your typical transcon. That's quite the difference. Lack of engine is also what helped shelf the Boeing MOM designs, and I'm afraid to say that unless someone steps up with one, that market segment is dead. Everyone has accepted underperforming 737-9/-10 and A321NEO for that capacity and Boeing is moving on to better things with a wider market appeal like the Truss Braced Wing.
 
SWA prepared to wait,

Politics. Probably just said to scare airbus into a better offer.
 
Politics. Probably just said to scare airbus into a better offer.

So you're saying there's a chance...


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The next airbus 32X delivery slot is probably the same wait as the max 7 certification


Seriously.


All this talk about “nah, maybe we’ll look at Airbus instead of our MAX orders.”



Meanwhile, Ryanair be like, we’ll take all your MAXes!


There ain’t no Airbus 321 NEOs/XLRs coming if you haven’t ordered them already. Good luck in the cue.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Airbus moved mountains to source Airbus narrowbodies for SWA if it meant stealing them from Boeing. Not happening though. The -700s probably have another decade left in them. Eventually the -7 will be certified...

Unless Boeing ends the program. I think the extension they got on EICAS was only good until 12/31/24. I'd be surprised if they were able to extend that again. That ought to light a fire under Boeing.
 
Boeings earnings call they said that they originally planned to get the -7 done then fix the cowl issue within 9 months thereafter. They pulled the exemption request and now plan to fix the cowl and certify at the same time.

They also have already built 30 MAX-7s for SWA.
 
After the Alaska incident several congress critters said “no more exemptions!”. They already gave Boeing a get out of jail free card on EICAS for the -7 and -10. They’re mad about loose rudder bolts and apparently missing door bolts. So Boeing rescinded their request.
Congress was right, for a change. That thing shouldn't see the light of day in that configuration. Honestly, neither should the -10, which was DOA until its exemption was written into a consolidated appropriations bill as a gift to a Boeing lobbyist somewhere, so hoooooooooray.

Like seriously. "Here is something that 1) we know to be not merely legally and on paper unairworthy, but actually unsafe and may lead to a catastrophic problem that is NOT 'extremely unlikely,' of the parts departing the aircraft and possibly coming into the cabin at high velocity variety and 2) pretty please Mr. FAA can we have this signed off? we promise we will fix it later fingers crossed, do not look at the non-compliant things on the 767-300F which we certificated this way with a promise to fix later and still have not, teehee."

Enough is enough. Sorry about the commercial implications, truly, but this request was a completely, brazenly bonkers thing. They might have gotten away with it if not for their manufacturing problems putting them in the spotlight, but it's still crap.

Here is the funny thing about pressure, you'd be surprised how quickly Beoing solves this issue when it affects their ability to sell airplanes. I can't stand this about companies. Boeing wants to kick the can of rocks down the road over and over and over simply because they want to sell airplanes. "oh we can't sell and deliver MAX7's because of his cowl lip issue and we will go out of business so FAA please let us sell them anyway."

Watch how freaking quickly a fix happens now. I bet the cowl lip is redesigned or reengineered in 6 months and is ready to go.
I'm with you, here; getting in the way of commerce means that it'll be fixed next week as opposed to sometime between now and Third Quarter (year unspecified). That's what this system is supposed to do, and I'm actually quite glad that everyone from the Secretary of Transportation on down seems to be tired of business as usual out there at 2200 South 216th St., Des Moines, WA 98198.

("Now, do Aeromedical!")
 
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