Precious metals.

BravoHotel

Well-Known Member
I purchased some silver from JM Bullion at spot. They have a PM “starter pack”of 10 oz of .999 silver. My portfolio is small, but I read it is not a bad idea to keep 5 to 10% of your holdings in precious metals. I am inclined to agree with that thought.

My strategy for PMs is when the coin jar gets full, or I have some extra ones, extra per diem etc, I plan on purchasing silver. If I am going to sit on a physical thing why not it be something that has carried value through the past several hundred years?
 
Warren Buffett on precious metals:

"Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head."

"The problem with commodities is that you are betting on what someone else would pay for them in six months. The commodity itself isn't going to do anything for you….it is an entirely different game to buy a lump of something and hope that somebody else pays you more for that lump two years from now than it is to buy something that you expect to produce income for you over time."

"Gold is a way of going long on fear, and it has been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in a year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money, but the gold itself doesn't produce anything."

"I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today's market prices about $7 trillion – that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (NYSE:XOM) and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I'll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils."

"The major asset in this category is gold, currently a huge favorite of investors who fear almost all other assets, especially paper money (of whose value, as noted, they are right to be fearful). Gold, however, has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end."

"What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow. During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As 'bandwagon' investors join any party, they create their own truth - for a while."

"I have no views as to where it will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won't do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo will be making a lot of money and there will be a lot - and it's a lot - it's a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that."
 
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Gold and silver are two of the worst performing assets on a long term basis. If the world ends sure you can buy bread with them but will there be bread to buy?
As you said, if the bread was around, sure, you could buy it with gold... theoretically. More likely, the bread would be the "gold".

Even if there was bread, I don't think many of the gold bugs have really considered the practical aspects of such a transaction or such an economy. How would it work? You carry around a gold bar in your breast pocket at every moment hoping not to get rolled?? Shave off a few filings of metal at each transaction??

Civilization and its institutions (economies, trading houses, banks, churches, businesses) must be built on trust, and those institutions must provide something of value. No trust, no functioning institutions of civilization. No value, no contribution to sustaining the civilization that sustains the institutions.

Gold is sold as an "investment" based almost exclusively on fear... trust's antipode. With very limited exceptions, gold does not represent or contribute to the production of anything valuable or contributory. Gold and precious metals as an "investment" is largely just a straight up "greater fool" play.

Precious metal hucksters should be required to attach the following PSA to their ads:
 
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Even if there was bread, I don't think many of the gold bugs have really considered the practical aspects of such a transaction or such an economy. How would it work? You carry around a gold bar in your breast pocket at every moment hoping not to get rolled?? Shave off a few filings of metal at each transaction??
If only there were historical precedent for such a system of trade....

(Not a gold hoarder, but that part of your post was too easy)
 
If only there were historical precedent for such a system of trade....

(Not a gold hoarder, but that part of your post was too easy)
Sure. No argument there. Gold and silver and other metal-based coins were commonly used as currency in many places for a long time. Those metals lent themselves to minting and carried with them a sense of intrinsic value derived from gold and silver's historic position as a value cache or hoard for royalties in many cultures. But there are good reasons why gold and silver are no longer used as currency, some of them stated in this thread. A modern economy is predicated on an efficient, flexible, liquid monetary system which a precious metal-valued currency would not support.

Perhaps some might favor ancient models, but the economy as we know it would collapse.

It might anyway for the trust reasons mentioned above. The economy is a machine designed to produce and distribute goods and services as efficiently as possible. The monetary system is the oil for that machine. It has been designed to give liquidity and flexibility to markets so that producers and consumers can make transactions efficiently and predictably to enhance production and distribution. When money flows freely at regulated pressures, it moderates the temperature of the machine, lubricates the machine, cleans the machine, and plugs holes in the machine. Again, this is based on trust and proper maintenance by the operators. When bankers et. al. abrogate their positions of trust, when they skimp on maintaining the tools, run them past MIs and TBOs, cease logging hours... things break bad. Especially when the unlogged hours are used to turn those financial tools designed to support commerce into private gaming halls that put regulated Vegas to shame. When the ill-got loot from those exotic and obfuscated trading-floor casinos is then hidden in secret accounts, all bets are off.

So who knows, maybe we should go back to a medieval feudal system. Maybe we already are. The current pandemic of dark money funded anti-intellectualism, pandering, and xenophobia sure make it feel were on that path. Just remember who wins in feudal systems... Perhaps another gambling analogy is apropos - "If you're sitting at the table and you don't know who the patsy is... it's you."
 
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Thanks for the great replies. I think I will still hold 5 to 10% of my holdings in PMs.

If you want to diversify while not wearing a hat made of gold foil, then why not a precious metal mutual fund? It's more of a mining sector fund, but the real strength of the individual stocks in the funds are usually how much proven reserves each one is sitting on. Many also have precious metals in their portfolio. I get that you don't actually own the commodity, but it's more of a play on the fear play that everyone's talking about. It's good because you get to capitalize on the irrational fear of the collapse of civilization without actually having to either store the stuff or get caught up in some scam that was actually targeting the elderly and flat-earthers.
 
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