Save your pennies (aka what will you do after your job is automated)

Ten years ago, I would have said not in a hundred years. The aerospace industry, especially the air transport industry has become extremely stagnant. However, there is now a ton of R&D and speculation coming from entities with deep pockets outside of the major aerospace dinosaurs. Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Paul Allen for space launch come to mind as does all of the massive speculation surrounding unmanned air taxis in the air transport industry. Like I said, ten years ago, I would have dismissed sea change in the aerospace industry as a pipe dream, but there now are industry outsiders with deep pockets making real progress. I can't shake the feeling that major industrial disruption is coming to the airline segment of the aerospace industry in particular. Maybe it won't be automation, but it's coming. Choosing to view themselves as "industrially mature" and becoming as conservative to technology R&D as the airlines and major airframe manufacturers have become is a poor path to the future. It reminds me a lot of the sense of invincibility that passenger railroads and passenger transoceanic lines felt from their "mature" industry in the early part of the 20th century...
 
Agree with @scramjet. People seem to misunderstand the rate of change in technology.

Will it happen in 5 years? Probably not. 10? Maybe. 15-20? The chances increase.

Tesla Model S. Announced in 2008, started selling in 2012. Just think that even 10 years ago we had also no tech in cars and now most manufactures offer some sort of autonomous driving option.
 
Derg said:
This kind of sounds like the mad dog captain that started out with "The World is Going to End!" followed by him trying to let him refinance my home and then using the equity in my home to invest in "his companies" handful of investment opportunities, but I could save on my closing costs if I signed on, under him, to become a salesman.

Eventually single pilot aircraft? Sure. Maybe even unmanned, but within five or ten years? Doubtful. The AI isn't there yet, and when it is there will be such a broad shift in the economy, all the things you stuffed money into in anticipation are largely going to be rendered moot.
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Wow that sounds like a great deal. Do have contact information for this amazing business opportunity. I’ve always wanted to work in sales.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
I don’t think anybody is arguing that single or even pilot-less aircraft aren't technically possible, it’s the regulatory environment and resistance to change that’s inherent with any new government approval that will prevent it from happening.
 
milleR said:
I don’t think anybody is arguing that single or even pilot-less aircraft aren't technically possible, it’s the regulatory environment and resistance to change that’s inherent with any new government approval that will prevent it from happening.
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The Air Force uses a whole lot of drones... Matter of time before the contractors selling that stuff start lobbying to do the same thing with cargo and eventually passenger traffic. It will happen, only a question of when.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
The Air Force uses a whole lot of drones... Matter of time before the contractors selling that stuff start lobbying to do the same thing with cargo and eventually passenger traffic. It will happen, only a question of when.
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Doesn't or didn't the air force also supply amphetamines to combat pilots?
 
av8tr1 said:
In addition there are no requirements for safety inspections on Uber cars beyond the state mandated safety checks.
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State safety check is a step up for the cab I took home from LGA last Wednesday. Terrible vibration at highway speed, low tire pressure light on, check engine light on, and a driver who felt driving in 2 lanes was a good idea. If NY cabs have safety inspections, they must be every 10 years from what I've seen.
 
NovemberEcho said:
State safety check is a step up for the cab I took home from LGA last Wednesday. Terrible vibration at highway speed, low tire pressure light on, check engine light on, and a driver who felt driving in 2 lanes was a good idea. If NY cabs have safety inspections, they must be every 10 years from what I've seen.
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The last 2 auto accidents I have been involved in were as a passenger in NYC cabs.
 
drunkenbeagle said:
The last 2 auto accidents I have been involved in were as a passenger in NYC cabs.
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He also asked me if I knew how much the fare usually is after he plugged in my address. I said no. He said ok you give me $100. I laughed. It came out to $110 =\. Last Uber ride from LGA was $72.
 
wheelsup said:
The F16 had an astronomical crash rate when it first came out too.
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While Jtrain is correct, I suspect not for the reason he alluded too.

It's easier to crash a drone when it goes pear shaped. Not-so for manned aircraft.
 
Cptnchia said:
I watched a 737 being flown as a demonstrator by a single pilot, who was sitting in a windowless room in the middle of the plane. The theory being you could use the area where the cockpit is more economically if you move the pilots. Using synthetic vision, they don’t need to be up front. That was 20 years ago. Not a single thing changed in that time.
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That's funny, I was flying a 737 this week and had a DSPLY SOURCE failure.

You know what doesn't fail? Looking out the window with your eyeballs.
 
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