Ameriflight

Inverted said:
Lots of the domestic UPS feeder flying can be done on a truck in probably the same amount of time it takes to unload, sort, fly, unload. I see the freight world restructuring much like the regional world eventually will. Legacies will take the flying back but entering the 100 seat market. UPS could buy Caravans or similar and price these failing freight companies out. 121 regionals are going to shrink big time.
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I don't disagree that they'd figure out some alternatives, but look at AMF's structure away from the West coast (which is the smallest amount of bulk we carry). You can't truck that, and 3-4 caravans cost a lot more than 1 Metro/1900.
 
This back and forth is non-sense. Both feeder managers have directly expressed great concern over both companies futures if the feeders start to have worse issues than they have now, much less, failure.

If Mountain Air or Empire fail (both WAY smaller than Ameriflight), FedEx will have serious issues. If Martinair, Keylime, or Ameriflight fail, UPS will have serious problems. Non of them can pick up the slack of the other right now.

You may not like it or agree with it, but that is the situation in the freight world. The solution is an easy one regarding UPS and Ameriflight. I don't know who is resisting, but it doesn't seem like it's the pilots or their union. When talking to the pilots at least. "What's your hours? You fly those things by yourselves??? (Yes, even the 99 and 1900) You're a shoe-in here"
 
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UPS used to fly metros. They can just bring it back in house. FedEx used to fly Falcons. Do it again. In house. No issue at all.
 
UAL747400 said:
This back and forth is non-sense. Both feeder managers have directly expressed great concern over both companies futures if the feeders start to have worse issues than they have now, much less, failure.

If Mountain Air or Empire fail (both WAY smaller than Ameriflight), FedEx will have serious issues. If Martinair, Keylime, or Ameriflight fail, UPS will have serious problems. Non of them can pick up the slack of the other right now.

You may not like it or agree with it, but that is the situation in the freight world. The solution is an easy one regarding UPS and Ameriflight. I don't know who is resisting, but it doesn't seem like it's the pilots or their union. When talking to the pilots at least. "What's your hours? You fly those things by yourselves??? (Yes, even the 99 and 1900) You're a shoe-in here"
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You know more than I do about the AMF stuff. I'm there, you're not. But I can assure you AMF is more worried about their situation than UPS is.


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UAL747400 said:
Like asking a Delta guy to fly a 170, much less a 700 or 200 series CRJ. That, I'd like to see...
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See this is what you don't get. Delta has orders for 190s. It's gonna happen. Regionals are going bye bye to mainline. The new United TA added 100 seat fleet pay scales into the contract and he other legacy carriers have RJ and EMB scales ready to go. Mainline is positioning themselves to take this flying back in some capacity. Lots of AMF metros are former UPS airplanes (hence the UP tail numbers). The mainline carriers are concerned about the future, but they have no intention of boasting the appeal of regionals or feeders in order to feed into mainline. At no point will AMF be big enough to supply UPS with pilots in a meaningful way. The company is way too small.


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UAL747400 said:
I don't disagree that they'd figure out some alternatives, but look at AMF's structure away from the West coast (which is the smallest amount of bulk we carry). You can't truck that, and 3-4 caravans cost a lot more than 1 Metro/1900.
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How much experience do you have managing aircraft? I bet a caravan is around the 1/3-1/4 mark when it comes to cost to operate for those aircraft. I mean airnet found they were cheaper per mile than a chieftain.
 
Inverted said:
See this is what you don't get. Delta has orders for 190s. It's gonna happen. Regionals are going bye bye to mainline. The new United TA added 100 seat fleet pay scales into the contract and he other legacy carriers have RJ and EMB scales ready to go. Mainline is positioning themselves to take this flying back in some capacity. Lots of AMF metros are former UPS airplanes (hence the UP tail numbers). The mainline carriers are concerned about the future, but they have no intention of boasting the appeal of regionals or feeders in order to feed into mainline. At no point will AMF be big enough to supply UPS with pilots in a meaningful way. The company is way too small.


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Well it wouldn't be about AMF pilots having large enough numbers to affect UPS hiring. It's about UPS giving an insintive to pilots to go fly for its fledgling feeder operations. It may not look like much cargo on a 99 or metro. But the demand for next day air into those smaller markets are great and UPS makes large profits serving them.

UPS used the hot potato it's feeder flying around through all of the operators. They can not do that anymore because the feeders barely have enough pilots to fly the routes they're already operating. It will be interesting to see what UPS/FedEx/DHL do in the future to deal with the shortage of pilots in the feeder market.
 
KLB said:
Well it wouldn't be about AMF pilots having large enough numbers to affect UPS hiring. It's about UPS giving an insintive to pilots to go fly for its fledgling feeder operations. It may not look like much cargo on a 99 or metro. But the demand for next day air into those smaller markets are great and UPS makes large profits serving them.

UPS used the hot potato it's feeder flying around through all of the operators. They can not do that anymore because the feeders barely have enough pilots to fly the routes they're already operating. It will be interesting to see what UPS/FedEx/DHL do in the future to deal with the shortage of pilots in the feeder market.
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Pilotless caravans at least to destinations with an ILS.
 
KLB said:
Well it wouldn't be about AMF pilots having large enough numbers to affect UPS hiring. It's about UPS giving an insintive to pilots to go fly for its fledgling feeder operations. It may not look like much cargo on a 99 or metro. But the demand for next day air into those smaller markets are great and UPS makes large profits serving them.

UPS used the hot potato it's feeder flying around through all of the operators. They can not do that anymore because the feeders barely have enough pilots to fly the routes they're already operating. It will be interesting to see what UPS/FedEx/DHL do in the future to deal with the shortage of pilots in the feeder market.
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I agree the incentive for UPS to keep the feeder structure is there. I guess my point is, the incentive has to be for pilots to work for Ameriflight with the carrot of automatically flowing to UPS. How could a company so small be given the numbers needed by UPS for it to be a win for both? The Allegiant agreement seemed fair but was a bit prohibitive. It worked for a few which is great. I just can't imagine what the agreement would be. You have to work for AMF for 5 years, 10 years? Could be worth it, but I think when the dust settles the world is gonna see UPS take some flying back.


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Roger Roger said:
Pilotless caravans at least to destinations with an ILS.
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You can offer higher pay on a Van because of the reduced operational costs. Pilotless planes will happen in the future but we will see brown Caravans with pilots inside before then.


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KLB said:
Maybe more brasilias covering multiple routes. I could swe a brasilia crew covering three or fout 99 routes. AMF has been buying them from what I hear.
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But the incentive of the 99 (or even the Bandit) was just that - you could beat the crap out of it on a 4-turn day, especially on flights with block times topping out around 30 minutes and the operating cost stays pretty low since the %cube might not be the greatest. Also, taking away the two or three 99/Bandits in favor of 1 Bro would mean that particular aircraft is now the sole means of delivery for next-day air to multiple stations. Spare on hand or not, I just can't think of a network where dropping two or three 99s in favor of 1 Bro is beneficial - but again this is just me.
 
Burrito said:
But the incentive of the 99 (or even the Bandit) was just that - you could beat the crap out of it on a 4-turn day, especially on flights with block times topping out around 30 minutes and the operating cost stays pretty low since the %cube might not be the greatest. Also, taking away the two or three 99/Bandits in favor of 1 Bro would mean that particular aircraft is now the sole means of delivery for next-day air to multiple stations. Spare on hand or not, I just can't think of a network where dropping two or three 99s in favor of 1 Bro is beneficial - but again this is just me.
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You make fair points. I'm looking at the staffing issue more than the cost issue. 2 crewmembers for the brasilia vs 4 crewmembers for four 99s.
 
KLB said:
You make fair points. I'm looking at the staffing issue more than the cost issue. 2 crewmembers for the brasilia vs 4 crewmembers for four 99s.
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How much longer can the fleet of 99s and Metros keep going? They were ready to be retired 30 years ago. Part of the restructuring is going to be figuring out a replacement for these aircraft. I don't think King Airs will become as popular but I could be wrong. I think the Caravan will be the hot ticket item, which means whoever is doing the flying, the mainline side will have to change some things.

The reality is, the aviation world is shaking up, and while we can all say that these companies will just have to "figure it out" because that's what they have done in the past, might be a bit short sided. The harsh reality is that AMF cannot survive if they can't figure out how to staff the place. UPS will be just fine, the are big enough to take the momentary hit and figure something out. The threat for AMF and UPS could be a really good thing. Maybe an agreement between the two for exclusive UPS flying, but that won't necessarily do anything to help the employment troubles of AMF.
 
Inverted said:
How much longer can the fleet of 99s and Metros keep going? They were ready to be retired 30 years ago. Part of the restructuring is going to be figuring out a replacement for these aircraft. I don't think King Airs will become as popular but I could be wrong. I think the Caravan will be the hot ticket item, which means whoever is doing the flying, the mainline side will have to change some things.

The reality is, the aviation world is shaking up, and while we can all say that these companies will just have to "figure it out" because that's what they have done in the past, might be a bit short sided. The harsh reality is that AMF cannot survive if they can't figure out how to staff the place. UPS will be just fine, the are big enough to take the momentary hit and figure something out. The threat for AMF and UPS could be a really good thing. Maybe an agreement between the two for exclusive UPS flying, but that won't necessarily do anything to help the employment troubles of AMF.
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The aging out of aircraft in the 9-30 seat range with no viable replacements (at least if having more than one engine is important to you) is an industry wide problem. Though if the "pilot shortage" remains a thing the smaller aircraft are going to continue to be replaced with bigger equipment and less frequency, at least until Cessna certifies the first unmanned Caravan.
 
Inverted said:
How much longer can the fleet of 99s and Metros keep going? They were ready to be retired 30 years ago. Part of the restructuring is going to be figuring out a replacement for these aircraft. I don't think King Airs will become as popular but I could be wrong. I think the Caravan will be the hot ticket item, which means whoever is doing the flying, the mainline side will have to change some things.

The reality is, the aviation world is shaking up, and while we can all say that these companies will just have to "figure it out" because that's what they have done in the past, might be a bit short sided. The harsh reality is that AMF cannot survive if they can't figure out how to staff the place. UPS will be just fine, the are big enough to take the momentary hit and figure something out. The threat for AMF and UPS could be a really good thing. Maybe an agreement between the two for exclusive UPS flying, but that won't necessarily do anything to help the employment troubles of AMF.
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Yeah. The shortage of crew to fly their freight is a problem for both. It hurts UPS just like the lack of regional pilots are hurting the majors.
 
You could probably fly a 1/4 full jet into every decent sized airport and truck it from there, short term. A long term fix is going to take awhile and a lot longer than both FedEx and UPS are anticipating.

That short term is going to cost the one that has problems with its feeders first, a ton of money compared to the other. All of the feeders are the "last man standing" at this point. No one can take on any more flying at this point, so if any of them fail now, that market for cost effective over-night delivery is gone in the short term. The difference between this and the passenger world is that Delta doesn't have to drive me to my house. If I'm a box, UPS and FedEx do. You'd have to grow the fleet and the trucking side tremendously, and quickly if the competitor isn't having the same problems.

The solution is simple and cheap. Flows or even preferential hiring. The past and present show that turbo-trash pilots train and perform just as well as anyone else. Jet time isn't a valid arguement against letting turbo-prop guys flow, and I don't know why it ever has been. Practically speaking, HR hires otherwise today, but we know that it doesn't really matter. I mean, which plane is it that a few members at legacies gloat about having experience in vs the CRJ crowd of today? Oh yeah, the 1900. :)
 
From my limited knowledge it kind of makes sense. If UPS announces a flow with AMF, they can almost ensure having enough pilots for the feeder structure for the foreseeable future. AMF has what 150-200 pilots? Who wouldn't apply to AMF if you could guarantee UPS in 5-10 years. UPS only needs to take 15-30 a year, would that cause many problems for them?
 
It could work that's for sure. Weather people can stomach AMF for 10 years is an entirely different subject. Increased pay didn't do it, and with majors that are gonna be hiring like mad, I dunno if people would stick around long enough. But if you could go to AMF, throw your apps out and if nobody calls, you have UPS guaranteed, and that would be awesome. Lots can happen in 10 years though. If we see hiring stop there, you lose all positive benefits of a flow through. Like I said it has to be lucrative for both to really work, and attract pilots.


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