Let the AS vs DL war continue

[Seggy]

Like the hubbub about the American/Airways merger (being sarcastic)? My information is all second hand, do you have something first hand?

First off, according to the 'Official Deltoid Pilot Forum' aka airlinepilotcentral (like that one @ERfly?), there was a big airline bigwig conference in NY and the Delta and Alaska upper management folks were publicly talking fecal matter about the other airlines management. Also, Delta named a new 737-900ER the 'Spirit of Seattle', that probably enraged the Alaska Management folks. Take that for what it is worth, but that leads into my second point, that according to my contacts in the know at Alaska a lot of this stems from the code sharing agreement Alaska set up with Emirates AFTER they were supposedly in 'tight' with Delta. Thirdly, the ship has probably sailed on this merger due to the fact the Delta and Alaska management folks aren't laughing at the same jokes right now and probably won't be for a while. A hostile takeover can occur (not now though as the Alaska stock price is to high), yes, but not a 'friendly' merger. Fourthly, as @BobDDuck said, Delta is unnecessarily growing capacity such as the PDX-SEA route where they could have just code-shared with Alaska, but Delta isn't acting rationally on some of the new routes as they are probably pissed. Fifthly, Delta may be biting off more than they can chew going up against Alaska in the Pacific Northwest. Alaska Airlines has a very unique culture, a great management group, great employees, and a great financial spreadsheet to go up against Delta in their own turf.

 

[Seggy]

It seems to me as an outsider that they at least sort of try to be a good airline, not a money laundering operation that runs airplanes.
The amount of money and effort they've put into developing RNP approaches around here is impressive.
If you can (AS seems to keep a pretty tight lid on that stuff), you should take a look at that RNP26 approach I mentioned. It is a thing of beauty and riding the jet in when the weather is at minimums is pretty dang impressive.

I am sure the Deltoids can step in here, but I am going to say it will be very easy for Delta, without any help from Alaska Airlines, to develop the RNP approaches they need tailored for them for a place like JNU.

 

[derg]

What say you, @AUAeropilot?

 

[SurferLucas]

Does DL currently have RNP qual on any aircraft? As far as I know, it's just AS, SW and QX that have RNP qual.

AS and QX are the only ones that I know of that can do RNP of less than .15, which is the required RNP for the AS approach into JNU.

DL is going to face a shortage of gate space in SEA shortly. They currently use the S-Gates and Concourse B at SeaTac...the S-Gates are slammed full during the international push as it is. AS has the only concourse that can be expanded, the N-Gates, as well as Concourse C and part of D.

I get that DL is the "jilted lover" in this equation, AS was the pretty FWB that started sleeping with AA and Emirates on the side...but AAG holds an advantage over DL in terms of gate space, pricing and brand loyality.

The markets that DL is adding the CRJ-900 (SEA-PDX and YVR), I hope they're ready to have their asses handed to them on those...a full Q400 trumps a full CRJ900 any day of the week and twice on Sunday's. (In term of cost, mind you)

 

[Seggy]

Does DL currently have RNP qual on any aircraft? As far as I know, it's just AS, SW and QX that have RNP qual.

Other airlines have RNP qual.

AS and QX are the only ones that I know of that can do RNP of less than .15, which is the required RNP for the AS approach into JNU.

Other airlines have RNPs less than .15. We can go down to .11

I get that DL is the "jilted lover" in this equation, AS was the pretty FWB that started sleeping with AA and Emirates on the side...but AAG holds an advantage over DL in terms of gate space, pricing and brand loyality.

Yep.

The markets that DL is adding the CRJ-900 (SEA-PDX and YVR), I hope they're ready to have their asses handed to them on those...a full Q400 trumps a full CRJ900 any day of the week and twice on Sunday's. (In term of cost, mind you)

Going to be 'interesting' to say the least. I have a feeling your are right.

 

[jynxyjoe]

First off, according to the 'Official Deltoid Pilot Forum' aka airlinepilotcentral (like that one @ERfly?), there was a big airline bigwig conference in NY and the Delta and Alaska upper management folks were publicly talking fecal matter about the other airlines management. Also, Delta named a new 737-900ER the 'Spirit of Seattle', that probably enraged the Alaska Management folks. Take that for what it is worth, but that leads into my second point, that according to my contacts in the know at Alaska a lot of this stems from the code sharing agreement Alaska set up with Emirates AFTER they were supposedly in 'tight' with Delta. Thirdly, the ship has probably sailed on this merger due to the fact the Delta and Alaska management folks aren't laughing at the same jokes right now and probably won't be for a while. A hostile takeover can occur (not now though as the Alaska stock price is to high), yes, but not a 'friendly' merger. Fourthly, as @BobDDuck said, Delta is unnecessarily growing capacity such as the PDX-SEA route where they could have just code-shared with Alaska, but Delta isn't acting rationally on some of the new routes as they are probably pissed. Fifthly, Delta may be biting off more than they can chew going up against Alaska in the Pacific Northwest. Alaska Airlines has a very unique culture, a great management group, great employees, and a great financial spreadsheet to go up against Delta in their own turf.

Well itll be interesting to watch I suppose. Thanks.

 

[Capt. Chaos]

I am sure the Deltoids can step in here, but I am going to say it will be very easy for Delta, without any help from Alaska Airlines, to develop the RNP approaches they need tailored for them for a place like JNU.

Does Delta have the ability to develop RNP approaches in house like Alaska? Alaska owns their approaches, they own the D-GPS correction transmitter located on the Juneau Douglas Bridge, they helped to develop the wind system around Juneau. Alaska spent boat loads of money to get their JNU approach, I can't imagine Delta investing that much time and money into a 3 1/2 month seasonal destination.

An I doubt this arrangement was done without a lot of coordination with AK Air. First off there is no available counter or gate space for lease at JNU, heck the airport managers had no idea Delta had anything planned; and as for staff, ground equipment, computers, maintenance, this would all be needing to happen and be put in place. And there has not been a single hint of anything like that happening in Juneau, so best bet is that Alaska has been contracted to do all the ground work. Funny Delta didn't hit KTN where they could compete on a much more equal footing approach wise.

 

[ChasenSFO]

Just checked on SFO-SEA once DL starts its 9 or 10 daily flights, UA is going all mainline on the route and VX and AS are beefing up a bit too. Fares are consistently $138 roundtrip after tax! Looks like I'm finally going to hit Seattle.

No one has mentioned it in this thread, but Alaska did bite back a bit. They recently announced the following cities from SLC:
LAX
PDX
SAN
SJC

All are mainline with a mix of Skywest CR7s on SAN and LAX, as well as adding Skywest frequencies on the existing SLC-SEA.

 

[Nick]

Regarding everything from gates, RNP approaches, empty flights, flights that don't connect to much, who's flying what route, and so on . . . I suspect that Delta has all of this planned out several steps beyond what is now available to the public. SEA is shaping up to replace NRT in some ways, which is a big deal -- if they follow through on that, screwing it up is not an option.

 

[Seggy]

Regarding everything from gates, RNP approaches, empty flights, flights that don't connect to much, who's flying what route, and so on . . . I suspect that Delta has all of this planned out several steps beyond what is now available to the public. SEA is shaping up to replace NRT in some ways, which is a big deal -- if they follow through on that, screwing it up is not an option.

I see what you are saying, but didn't Delta set up the agreement with Alaska to funnel passengers into SEA for the international stuff? If they did that then why are they going to start flying SEA to PDX/YVR/etc. when Alaska can?

Somethings aren't adding up here.


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[Nick]

I see what you are saying, but didn't Delta set up the agreement with Alaska to funnel passengers into SEA for the international stuff? If they did that then why are they going to start flying SEA to PDX/YVR/etc. when Alaska can?

Somethings aren't adding up here.

I think the reason that the numbers of seats available on AS flights is no longer adequate is because there are more international flights to be 'fed'. What may have worked to bring in people to connect to AMS and NRT before, now also has to work to connect people to AMS/CDG/LHR/NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/ICN and the list is still growing.

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I agree 100% on this part.

 

[Seggy]

Does Delta have the ability to develop RNP approaches in house like Alaska?

99% sure they do.

Alaska owns their approaches, they own the D-GPS correction transmitter located on the Juneau Douglas Bridge, they helped to develop the wind system around Juneau. Alaska spent boat loads of money to get their JNU approach, I can't imagine Delta investing that much time and money into a 3 1/2 month seasonal destination.

An I doubt this arrangement was done without a lot of coordination with AK Air. First off there is no available counter or gate space for lease at JNU, heck the airport managers had no idea Delta had anything planned; and as for staff, ground equipment, computers, maintenance, this would all be needing to happen and be put in place. And there has not been a single hint of anything like that happening in Juneau, so best bet is that Alaska has been contracted to do all the ground work. Funny Delta didn't hit KTN where they could compete on a much more equal footing approach wise.

Delta management is good. Even though they are good, marketing may have made the assumption that they can just announce seasonal service to JNU like they could to a place like FAI and work on the logistics later.

Things aren't adding up the way Alaska and Delta are going after each other. I HIGHLY doubt Alaska is onboard with this.


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[Seggy]

I think the reason that the numbers of seats available on AS flights is no longer adequate is because there are more international flights to be 'fed'.


What may have worked to bring in people to connect to AMS and NRT before, now also has to work to connect people to AMS/CDG/LHR/NRT/PEK/PVG/HKG/ICN and the list is still growing.

Then why didn't Delta, if they were a few steps ahead, have worked into the Alaska agreement the number of seats for more international flights they had planned privately?




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[Cptnchia]

@SurferLucas
We've been doing RNP approaches all over the world for the last 6-7 years. Derg might now better, but I want to say that Quito is down to .05(? Could be wrong.

Who do you think the driving airline is for developing the RNP approaches in Atlanta?

 

[Cptnchia]

Delta has declared war on Alaska due to the Emrites code share. Plus, from what I've heard, the flow of passengers from AS to feed the SEA expansion just isn't there. I guess management felt they could it better without AS's help.

 

[Seggy]

Delta has declared war on Alaska due to the Emrites code share. Plus, from what I've heard, the flow of passengers from AS to feed the SEA expansion just isn't there. I guess management felt they could it better without AS's help.

Thank you!

Going to be interesting!


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[Seggy]

@SurferLucas
We've been doing RNP approaches all over the world for the last 6-7 years. Derg might now better, but I want to say that Quito is down to .05(? Could be wrong.

Who do you think the driving airline is for developing the RNP approaches in Atlanta?

New airport in Quito btw. Makes it much easier...

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[Maximilian_Jenius]

Thank you!

Going to be interesting!


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This sounds like a soap opera!

A hostile takeover can occur (not now though as the Alaska stock price is to high), yes, but not a 'friendly' merger.

Is this the "poison pill" legal option that DL has over AS?

DL is going to face a shortage of gate space in SEA shortly. They currently use the S-Gates and Concourse B at SeaTac...the S-Gates are slammed full during the international push as it is. AS has the only concourse that can be expanded, the N-Gates, as well as Concourse C and part of D.

If space is tight at SEA, how is the expansion space looking over at PDX?

 

[Ecl!pse]

As a non-pilot (and non-DL, for that matter) industry insider, I find Delta's recent moves on both coasts very intriguing - moves that make working in this industry so unique and, in my mind, so exciting (not to investors, though).

A few thoughts on the Seattle expansion and more - be wary, its a bit long:

First, I agree with some of the sentiments above that there is likely bad blood over the Alaska & Emirates codeshare. Keep in mind, as well, on the other side of the domestic codeshare is a now large AA/US with an extensive network out of LAX. As the new AA/US aligns its network strategy, and grows (there are many aircraft to be delivered after 2014), they pose a significant threat to Delta's network in the pacific should they pursue it. Delta noted in their investors day presentation last week that they wanted to be at the forefront of the industry, being proactive and not reactive. I think the SEA expansion, combined with the numerous upgauges across the network, show that they are being proactive by carrying the feed they need on their own metal.

A second note on Alaska in SEA - they have built their pristine balance sheet on consistent, solid operating margins (10%+, even reaching 20%+). While this is great, it leaves you vulnerable. I would venture a guess that someone at Delta (in Finance or Network Planning) is monitoring Alaska's RASM by market, if not building financial models of Alaska's P&L by market, looking for opportunities to take parts of Alaska's pie. When you start to make the kind of money DL made in Q3, you can take risks in new markets - at the very worst, given the SEA expansion, they will help to feed Delta's international expansion. There is no doubt the management team at Alaska is talented - I imagine they will continue to approach this in a smart, tactical manner, rather than throwing capacity everywhere (SLC was a start, though).

What's really, really interesting is that while the expansion has been going on in Seattle, Delta has been making moves on the east coast as well. In the past month, they've expanded in Boston (some domestic, some Caribbean) - certainly in response to JetBlue's announcement of the start of Boston-Detroit service next spring. However, this past week, Delta also expanded some at JFK - adding frequencies in upstate NY markets (SYR/ROC/BUF), business markets (BOS, ORD, BWI, MSP, CLE, CMH, IND), and others (JAX/ACK/ORF/YYL), and more. Granted, many of these "additions" are reinstatements of frequencies they flew pre-slot swap at LGA. However, it's pretty significant that these were all added back without sacrificing the same market frequencies over at LGA. While they build the foundation they need for international feed at SEA, they do the same on the east coast to feed the trans-Atlantic markets.

Anyway, my last Delta though is this: we now have 3 mega carriers, an ongoing period of stability or "capacity discipline" (we'll see how long this lasts. . .), and a recovering US/world economy. The next few years in the US airline industry will be very, very interesting. Mr. Anderson said he believes consolidation is 90% complete - what lays ahead, particularly for Southwest/Alaska/Virgin/JetBlue, should be interesting.

 

[Seggy]

Very interesting post @Ecl!pse. Thanks for putting your thoughts together.