737NG crash off coast of Bali. Lion Air

zmiller4 said:
That captain did just describe a micro burst encounter perfectly.
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A few things that raised my eyebrow with what he described...

1) The predictive wind shear function of the aircraft should have been yelling at them

-and-

2) If they were only booked to 100, it should have had no problem performance wise to get out of the weather event

-and-

3) If the crew was trying to go around, passengers would be making statements 'that they heard the engines rev up/it got louder in the cockpit/(something similar)'. I haven't read anything like that.
 
Guess that 234 Airbus order they just made wasn't for expansion, but to replace the new 737s as they crash them. Rumors are rumors, but if what some expats in the region tell me is true, wasn't a microburst. Very interested for a full report.
 
Seggy said:
A few things that raised my eyebrow with what he described...

1) The predictive wind shear function of the aircraft should have been yelling at them

-and-

2) If they were only booked to 100, it should have had no problem performance wise to get out of the weather event
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1) I would think before or at least during the event they would have some indication of windshear. At some point the plane would bark at them.

2) Not so sure....100 still isn't exactly empty. Even so, remember the DL L-10-11 event...They suffered a similar fate when encountering negative windshear close to the ground. Heck our windshear flight guidance goes into a mode to avoid the ground when it gets bad enough. Still might happen though. I'm putting my money on the bad storm before a tin-can with wings.
 
Baronman said:
1) I would think before or at least during the event they would have some indication of windshear. At some point the plane would bark at them.
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Then the question is did the crew initiate a go around?

2) Not so sure....100 still isn't exactly empty. Even so, remember the DL L-10-11 event...They suffered a similar fate when encountering negative windshear close to the ground.
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I'm pretty sure that a FULLY loaded 737 can do just fine with a windshear event close to the ground. I believe it is an aircraft certification issue actually. Question here is if it was windshear, was the decision to go around made and then acted on.
 
smack300 said:
Hey Look! Its a Sea Lion!
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tumblr_mkzwb4HQ8R1qztvpwo1_500.gif
 
swisspilot said:
That doesn`t really mean much, there are several airlines banned from EU airspace because they don`t meet the same standards, which are not always safety related. For some airlines flying in certain location is just not worth it to get all the papers right. In the Caribbean there are several airlines that are not allowed into EU airspace (French Guyana), it`s really just a matter of $, not safety, for example insurance requirements are much higher and some company would rather not have the right to operate in EU (most don`t even need to) then pay a premium. Most of the airlines "banned" don`t even have the airplanes to fly to Europe.
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Interesting. Follow the money trail then huh? ;)
 
Seggy said:
A few things that raised my eyebrow with what he described...

1) The predictive wind shear function of the aircraft should have been yelling at them

-and-

2) If they were only booked to 100, it should have had no problem performance wise to get out of the weather event

-and-

3) If the crew was trying to go around, passengers would be making statements 'that they heard the engines rev up/it got louder in the cockpit/(something similar)'. I haven't read anything like that.
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I'm not denying that it seems likely they screwed up badly; there certainly was nothing in the weather reports implying an inescapable microburst around. But all 3 of those are all contingent on the windshear alert working properly (there were MEL's on my aircraft that would disable it) and the pilots responding to it properly. If they didn't have it working and got into a situation where they needed it, it might be pretty difficult to judge the proper pitch that would get them out but still avoid a stall.
 
LatitudeDancer said:
Another reason not to fly Indonesian airlines:
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-indonesian-pilots-use-crystal-meth-2013-4

I thought this is where you get your head cut off for having a roach on your person. But meth is apparently popular...hmmmm
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Quote from the above article
The Indonesian air travel industry is rapidly expanding, and may be understaffed. A Transportation Ministry spokesperson told the Times that the 7,000 pilots working for the country's 57 airlines are "not enough."

Looks like the pilot shortage everyone is talking about.
 
One of my European students went over there a few years back, mommy and daddy paid big money so jr could get jet time... lost touch with him since, hope this wasn't him... :(

Lion Air is one of those companies that penny pinch to the extreme, you'd think they'd have learned already how expensive lack of safety really is... vs. saving a few grand a month on experienced flight crew.
 
zmiller4 said:
I'm not denying that it seems likely they screwed up badly; there certainly was nothing in the weather reports implying an inescapable microburst around. But all 3 of those are all contingent on the windshear alert working properly (there were MEL's on my aircraft that would disable it) and the pilots responding to it properly. If they didn't have it working and got into a situation where they needed it, it might be pretty difficult to judge the proper pitch that would get them out but still avoid a stall.
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It's called flying it to the stick shaker (if they realized they were in a wind shear event). If they set max thrust, the shaker going off and still hit the water, nothing more they could do. If not? Then something's up. I'm with seggy on this one, some thing else besides a brand new 737 smells fishy.
 
the first officer (24, CPL, 1,200 hours total, 923 hours on type) was pilot flying
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Pretty much wanted to stop reading there.

Hell I've got more hours than this guy did prior to laying hands on a 737

Unless I'm missing something, the crew seems to have flown a good airplane in low vis conditions, admittedly so, below minimums, right into the water?

I know the PF was low time relatively, but was the captain asleep?

lionair_b738_pk-lks_denpasar_130413_7.jpg
 
Yep...sure looks like they flew a good plane into the water. I guess the Captain forgot that you still can lose about 100' while initiating a go-around. Oh, and that mins are published for a reason. New FO was along for the ride.
 
canadian_atc said:
Pretty much wanted to stop reading there.

Hell I've got more hours than this guy did prior to laying hands on a 737

Unless I'm missing something, the crew seems to have flown a good airplane in low vis conditions, admittedly so, below minimums, right into the water?

I know the PF was low time relatively, but was the captain asleep?

lionair_b738_pk-lks_denpasar_130413_7.jpg
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CPT with 15k hours didn't seem to matter much either, particularly as the FO called runway not in sight and he opted to continue the approach.
 
VOR/DME approach to runway 09 has a 465' MDA.​
​
900' AGL FO states R/W not in sight. ​
550' AGL EGPWS calls "minimums," autopilot & autothrottles disconnected. ​
150' AGL FO states R/W still not in sight, CA takes over. ​
20' AGL EGPWS calls out "twenty," CA calls TOGO. ​
​
Another aircraft 5nm behind the accident aircraft missed on their first attempt and went around, and successfully landed on next attempt. ​
 
The sad thing is, how many 300 hour CPL holders over here will read that report then file an application with Lion Air?
 
I guess my question is, what would you do differently as the FO? I'm not CPL holder, so I don't know. Do you set TOGA and initiate go around even without the CA's approval?
 
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