Delta ponders pilot sources (Flightglobal article)

I could be wrong, but maybe they're looking for a way to bypass experienced pilots who expect reasonable pay? By starting an ab initio program, an airline could make it a requirement for employment and "usurp" all those currently in the game. I'd love to be wrong!
 
C150J said:
I could be wrong, but maybe they're looking for a way to bypass experienced pilots who expect reasonable pay? By starting an ab initio program, an airline could make it a requirement for employment and "usurp" all those currently in the game. I'd love to be wrong!
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Contract. ALPA. Negotiated pay rates.
 
v1valarob said:
Contract. ALPA. Negotiated pay rates.
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Thank goodness, but what if an airline was to start requiring a multi-crew pilot's license, which is what the ATA seems to be pushing? I'm hoping an ATP would automatically qualify you as an MPL, but I'm not sure. In other words, could an airline bypass those already at the regionals by requiring a certification that only their "cadets" would have?
 
C150J said:
I could be wrong, but maybe they're looking for a way to bypass experienced pilots who expect reasonable pay? By starting an ab initio program, an airline could make it a requirement for employment and "usurp" all those currently in the game. I'd love to be wrong!
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WINNA WINNA WINNA!!!!!
 
except thatthere is not an endless supply of pilots in the US. AOPA ran an article last year about how instructing has dropped off. The number of instructors out there who can actually make a living on it has gone to almost zero, and the number of primary students in the country has dropped 98% in the last ten years. Thats just those looking at getting a private cert, the numbers are much worse for the few of those who will go on to pursue aviation as a career. One of two things are going to happen with the airlines in the next ten to 15 years. You will either see regionals grow and the majors shrink, or the regionals will trend towards going away completely. I hope its the later but in any case look at the number of old guys that are about to retire from the majors. Look at USAir first. what is that, a 7000 pilot group? 87% of them are over the age of 55, 87%! That is a huge amount of movement in the next ten years, starting in DEC of 2012, if the world doesn't end first :sarcasm: . American Airlines is probably the next oldest, 80% are over the age of 50. Last I heard only around 400 of them were under 40. I haven't looked to see if it works out or not, but I have a buddy of mine who works for ASA, math wiz, he said after running the numbers there aren't enough regional captains in the US to replace the retirees from just American, much less the whole industry. Delta isn't super young, and neither is United. Things are gonna change guys... and only for the better!
 
Pilotforhire587 said:
except thatthere is not an endless supply of pilots in the US. AOPA ran an article last year about how instructing has dropped off. The number of instructors out there who can actually make a living on it has gone to almost zero, and the number of primary students in the country has dropped 98% in the last ten years. Thats just those looking at getting a private cert, the numbers are much worse for the few of those who will go on to pursue aviation as a career. One of two things are going to happen with the airlines in the next ten to 15 years. You will either see regionals grow and the majors shrink, or the regionals will trend towards going away completely. I hope its the later but in any case look at the number of old guys that are about to retire from the majors. Look at USAir first. what is that, a 7000 pilot group? 87% of them are over the age of 55, 87%! That is a huge amount of movement in the next ten years, starting in DEC of 2012, if the world doesn't end first :sarcasm: . American Airlines is probably the next oldest, 80% are over the age of 50. Last I heard only around 400 of them were under 40. I haven't looked to see if it works out or not, but I have a buddy of mine who works for ASA, math wiz, he said after running the numbers there aren't enough regional captains in the US to replace the retirees from just American, much less the whole industry. Delta isn't super young, and neither is United. Things are gonna change guys... and only for the better!
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Indeed. Put very simply, if you consider how many qualified applicants there are, and that every mainline company is STILL looking at ab initio programs, the answer is clear; they're afraid of running out of pilots, and believe that the possibility is real.
 
I don't get it. There are probably 30,000 qualified pilots ready to kill each other to get one of Delta's 300 openings.
 
Can the current US training model produce enough pilots to staff the airlines for the future? Yes it can.

Can the airlines retain enough of those pilots given the current pay and lifestyle? I don't think so.

The financial ROI on flight training is so poor that very few students today want to pursue flying. Also many of the stepping stone jobs are becoming more and more scarce.
 
Hootie said:
I don't get it. There are probably 30,000 qualified pilots ready to kill each other to get one of Delta's 300 openings.
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I guarantee 30,000 people did not apply in the last opening, and I guarantee a portion of them were not qualified.
 
Hootie said:
I don't get it. There are probably 30,000 qualified pilots ready to kill each other to get one of Delta's 300 openings.
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It's quite simple really... Delta is not looking at today's workforce applicant for the 300 openings. They're looking at the future where there may be potential issues fulfilling their employment needs.
 
v1valarob said:
I guarantee 30,000 people did not apply in the last opening, and I guarantee a portion of them were not qualified.
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If Delta or any major put the word out that they will interview any and all qualified individuals that apply, they would have 30,000 applications. They will never run out of qualified pilots.
 
Hootie said:
If Delta or any major put the word out that they will interview any and all qualified individuals that apply, they would have 30,000 applications. They will never run out of qualified pilots.
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And this is why there will NEVER be a pilot shortage. In order to fill seats, they will lower the bar enough to attract the applicants they need to fill seats. Just look at what times foriegn airlines are hiring people with. The guy in the left seat might as well log the time as dual given. And, the regionals will loose pilots like they are filling their airplanes with the plauge, and they will have to hire any warm body with ATP mins., give them a type and an ATP at the same time, and keep the wages where they are because "I getz to fly shiney jetZZZ, and they gave me an ATP to boot!"


From a recent thread:

SurferLucas said:
I know of a few Horizon FO's that upgraded, passed the checkride but couldn't get off of IOE. 2 were able to keep their jobs afterwards. One in particular, he/she took nearly 45 hrs of IOE before they said "Is this really going to work"?
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Like the quote says, some will pass, some won't, senority numbers will shuffle, and the next guy in line for the upgrade will hopefully make it. There is simply more pilots than jobs, and there always will be. Just go browse the jobs section of any "pro-pilot" forum, and look at the people clammering all over each other to fly for the first regional airline that will hire them. It's kind of sickening. Not that people will fly for the regionals, but that people are so gung-ho to work for any one that will hire them because the job is a "steeping stone." IMHO, the new reality is that the amount of regionals vs. majors flying today and the guys comming of of charter gigs with the times for the majors, there will be many many people who spend their entire life flying at the regional level. And thats fine, but there will be a lot of broken dreams in the process.


The only reason something like this would stick to the wall IMO is for a reduced insurance premimum. I don't know how it wuld be spun, but I have seen stranger things in my short time in aviation. Like a guy with 4500TT/2100ME/15Turbine having to pay more for insurance than a guy who has 2800TT/815ME/600Turbine, simply because the lower time guy has more time flying turbines, which are far eaiser to handle than a TIO-540 that has to be stages cooled, there is no FMS to plan descents for you, and you do it all by yourself with out the assistance of a second qualified pilot. There has never been, and will never will be a pilot shortage. There may be a period of time where the airlines can't interview enough people quickly enough, and get them through training. But, there will never be a lack of pilots. Last I remember, there was nearly 10,000 pilots who were either liad off or furghloughed. And look at us, some of us are still out of work, or working just enough to scratch out an existance.


Wow, that almost sounded like a rant.
 
Hootie said:
If Delta or any major put the word out that they will interview any and all qualified individuals that apply, they would have 30,000 applications. They will never run out of qualified pilots.
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The thing is I don't think there are 30K qualified pilots. I have ran some numbers and only think there is maybe 15K-20K pilots that are qualified for a mainline and better LLC job.

I take qualified to mean 1,500 TT,college degree, nothing bad on their record and under 50.
 
Gonzo said:
The thing is I don't think there are 30K qualified pilots. I have ran some numbers and only think there is maybe 15K-20K pilots that are qualified for a mainline and better LLC job.

I take qualified to mean 1,500 TT,college degree, nothing bad on their record and under 50.
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This is just it. I think what Southernjets is looking for and what some might consider "qualified" are two different things. If you look at their past hiring practices you can see that they know precisely what they are looking for. Furthermore they want to dictate who comes to the interview more than what the market will give them...thus IMO why they would want to have some input in "cultivating" their ideal candidate. As we already know meaning or even exceeding minimum quals means nothing. It's the full track record plus what you did beyond being just a line pilot adding up hours. This is the first I've heard about this concept....I have mixed feelings for sure.
 
jynxyjoe said:
Burn the industry down and start again.

National Senority List.
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How would this possible in a PRIVATE industry? The airlines aren't nationalized. Furthermore, how would this benefit people? So if pilot 1 at airline A gets furloughed, he can go to airline B and bump pilot 2 down?
 
I think the real concern is not being able to adequately fill their staffing needs, but the cost of filling those spots. As the pool of qualified airmen shrinks, wages increase. Simple supply and demand of a perrisible commodity in the eyes of management.
 
Bigey said:
How would this possible in a PRIVATE industry?
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As an operating condition for all 121 carriers, all employment for flight crew positions must come from a approved national seniority list in which contain union members in good standing.

Bigey said:
The airlines aren't nationalized.
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You mean this isn't 1970? Where am I? God damn acid trips!

Bigey said:
Furthermore, how would this benefit people?
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Job security for the pilots.

Bigey said:
So if pilot 1 at airline A gets furloughed, he can go to airline B and bump pilot 2 down?
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That is how a national seniority list would work. If a pilot senior to you loses his equipment he may bid to another base/equipment his seniority would hold. Whoever is at the bottom of the list would be furloughed. That is exactly how it happens already inside an individual company.

What you've done is explain how seniority works already. Maybe you should be asking, "How do we integrate all the lists?".
 
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