Risk Aversions And Your Career

derg

Apparently a "terse" writer
Staff member
I got an email from someone wanting to move up the food chain a couple days ago.

He wants to move up the food chain to a different carrier but the possibility of sitting reserve on the smallest piece of equipment for years and years isn't appealing and asks more or less "What would I do?"

This is very common question.

The concept of a 'safe harbor' in aviation is false security, there's nowhere to run to, baby! ;) Nowhere to hide... (ooooo oooo ooooh)

Seriously. If you have an opportunity to move up the food chain, move up the food chain if it's what's consistent with your ultimate goal in aviation. Regionals are not safe, and if you think the regional you got hired at 21 is going to be around 44 more years when you're going to retire, you might be a little delirious.

Majors and LCC's aren't necessarily safe havens either, there are plenty of furloughed pilots from airlines that stated "welcome to the last job you'll ever have, here's your 747-400 bid but we might need you on the 777 in the interim"

Ask yourself:

  • Where do I want to be in 20 years?
  • Does this opportunity move me toward that goal?

I have a lot of friends that felt comfortable at Skyway because it was a good company, in their home town and they were going to be able to move up to Midwest Express and fly 717's. 10 minute drive to work, many of their co-workers have been their friends since elementary school. Cheese 'n rice. Don't add sugar to the iced tea because it's already delish.

At any airline you go to, you will be at the risk of furlough, dissolution, acquisition, merger, bankruptcy, loss of contract (if you're a capacity provider), etc. If you wait until the planets align, everything seems perfect, the pool finally reached the right temperature for you to step in, you're already at the back end of the wave and you will be on reserve, in the most challenging city, on the smallest aircraft and potentially swirling around that proverbial drain.

Look at any airline that you want to be and the people highest on the seniority list on the biggest equipment were generally people that make a risk.

"I want to fly A380's for FDX!"

Well, for a long period of time people didn't want to fly boxes in the middle of the night. They wanted the glamor of passenger aviation. The people that are in a position to bid A380's when they arrive are people that chose to go against conventional wisdom (at the time) and take the opportunity. Now it's one of the top five jobs in aviation.

"I want to fly 747's for UPS!"

The conventional wisdom at the time, much like above, was that they worked their pilots like truck drivers and the hours of operation were hard on a lot of people so many left for greener pastures. Again, one of the top five jobs in aviation.

"I want to fly 737's for SWA!"

Until the early 2000's, the conventional wisdom was that they "just flew 737s" and "who wants to do that" for the rest of their careers. Of course, another top five job in aviation.

Hell, people thought I was an idiot for going to Delta because I would be a 10 year L1011 second officer, if I was lucky and senior enough at the point because the real growth was at United Airlines and I'd be a 747-400 FO my freshman year, in SFO and I could save money by living with my folks and be a millionaire before I knew it.

I could go on and on but I think you guys get the point.

Flying is risky.

The best opportunities are always coupled with risk.

Always.

Opportunity is not going to knock at your door and say, "Hey! here's the perfect, risk-free opportunity! Your limousine is out front, loaded with Johnny Walker Blue Label and lovely ladies from the strip club, we'll get your bag, run on out there settle yourself in and we'll drive you to ground school sir! Ah ah ah! We'll get those bags for you."

Sometimes the risk in waiting until the water seems absolutely perfect is being on the bad end of the wave, so now you are at risk of furlough and swirling around the drain every economic downturn.

On the other hand, sometimes the risk of jumping hastily without looking at all the details can be equally as ruinous to your career ambitions.

Choose intelligently. Yes, it's a craps table where the shooter can roll a 7 at any time, but if you've got money on the table, play to succeed.
 
I don't care what they say, every once in a while the stars align and you say something intelligent. :)

Seriously though, this seems like some pretty solid advice from someone who's been there done that.
 
Don't fly as a primary career. I never really have, and have been fine, with low threat (if any) of any furloughing or job loss or any other volatile qualities that the airlines have been seeing.

Just one more way of doing business......remember, the airlines aren't the only "jetcareer" out there.
 
^
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Traffic Watch -> Freight -> Furlough -> OCS -> A-10 -> the suck -> F-117A -> Fuytaba R/C Box -> Jumpin' out of the helo chasing our Southern Neighbors -> Hueys -> Blackhawks, am I right am I right? :)
 
^
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Traffic Watch -> Freight -> Furlough -> OCS -> A-10 -> the suck -> F-117A -> Fuytaba R/C Box -> Jumpin' out of the helo chasing our Southern Neighbors -> Hueys -> Blackhawks, am I right am I right? :)

You got it mang! :)

And racetrack firefighter on the side.
 
Ooh, I just thought, leaving the USAF prior to your 20 years to go to the CBP was a risk as well, yes?
 
To weigh this sage advice I will take the opposite side of the argument. For every super success story of some guy who went right when everyone else left, there's the same guy that made the same move one minute prior or later and was hit by the bus. I flew with a few of them.

My suggestion? Don't be the first rat off the ship, don't be the last.
 
timing can play a critical role.....but if you never jump and take a risk, you'll never know!
 
Sometimes you make the RIGHT decision, and you're sitting pretty with almost 1000 people junior to you, new hire classes of 50 a WEEK going through...

Then one beautiful September morning some hijackers fly 2 of your airplanes into some buildings and kill 17 of your co-workers. 2 weeks later you're homeless, jobless & broke.

Make the best decisions you can, based on the information you have available to you at the time, but know that NOTHING is certain. The only constant in anything is change, and the better you are at being able to adapt to anything life throws at you the better off you'll be in every facet of your life.
 
To weigh this sage advice I will take the opposite side of the argument. For every super success story of some guy who went right when everyone else left, there's the same guy that made the same move one minute prior or later and was hit by the bus. I flew with a few of them.

My suggestion? Don't be the first rat off the ship, don't be the last.

That's actually part of the overall message.

But you can't time the profession, just like the stock market.

Everyone wants to buy low and sell high, but watching CNBC (or, in this case, the aviation internet) isn't going to give you the sole critical data you need to make a buy/sell decision.

Fleet plans. Orders: firm, options, rolling options. Retirements. How many are bugging out to 60/62/65, how many are just leaving. Staffing formula changes. Strategic alliances.

The alpha and the omega of many folks decisions are nothing more than pay rates and whether or not they match what they feel are the competitive hiring qualifications (which may change daily, sometimes hourly when the airlines are actively interviewing).

The light could be "green" when the signal is still "red" and vice versa.

Here's a good example. I interviewed with American three months before they were "officially hiring" or even had a public announcement about it. How often does that happen in the industry? More often than many realize.
 
Think of job hunting in this industry like picking stocks.

If it's something that everyone wants, it's probably over done.

Look back over the last decade, and as others have pointed out, the sure things turned out to be no better than the "icky place where I'd sit reserve until I die".

I've flown with guys that have lost their jobs from the best airlines in the business, as well as guys that have lost their jobs from the worst airlines in the business. One of the facts of this industry is that you WILL start over, the question is will it be of your choosing or the aviation god's choosing?
 
That's actually part of the overall message.

But you can't time the profession, just like the stock market.

Everyone wants to buy low and sell high, but watching CNBC (or, in this case, the aviation internet) isn't going to give you the sole critical data you need to make a buy/sell decision.

Fleet plans. Orders: firm, options, rolling options. Retirements. How many are bugging out to 60/62/65, how many are just leaving. Staffing formula changes. Strategic alliances.

The alpha and the omega of many folks decisions are nothing more than pay rates and whether or not they match what they feel are the competitive hiring qualifications (which may change daily, sometimes hourly when the airlines are actively interviewing).

The light could be "green" when the signal is still "red" and vice versa.

Here's a good example. I interviewed with American three months before they were "officially hiring" or even had a public announcement about it. How often does that happen in the industry? More often than many realize.

Well I was just trying to set a different tone was all. Saw a lot of people do some of the same stuff I've done and step into a bear trap. I've done well, I don't know if it will continue, I will keep trying.

(this is not to doug or any specific poster)
There are plenty of people in aviation who have done fine by staying where they were at and avoiding risk, in my experience. Unless you call 110k a year and 17 days off a bad deal. I've also watched guys have the limo pull up and say something to the effect of, "Hey I saw you in uniform, I'm a major credit card HR person. I know you are a barely qualified FO on a 1900 but just by looking at you I'd like to offer you a job at our corporation for 90k ('06 dollars) a year. Nope couldn't care less about your resume, can I get your bags?" Last I heard that same person is slumming it at a job paying 50k waiting for their turn to get back to said major credit card company, which he will get that call.

Doug invites you the reader to "Look at any airline that you want to be and the people highest on the seniority list on the biggest equipment were generally people that make a risk". I would respond, respectfully, look at that list again and show me those people who tried to get right there that didn't or haven't and never will. The losers don't make it onto the seniority list. HOWEVER, some of those "losers" get stuck somewhere and then a beautiful opportunity knocks on their door, and something perfect comes along. Other times they never make it anywhere, and they've done plenty of risk. Stepping up the the craps table also means there is a probability of rolling snake eyes every time. The guy who stood out front in the lobby and found a quarter on the ground did better than that poor shmuck.

Some people have risked all and swear by it. I've seen enough people risk nothing and get by just fine. Don't feel like a professional airline pilot career path has to be like the breathing mechanics of a shark, you can sit still and still breath. The only thing all pilots have in common, is that there WILL be some rough times. I want to underline both those points, so I did.
 
No argument here.

Sometimes oppertunities come along which may not present itself with the best possible solutions. However, go with it and dont look back. Move forward and better yourself.

Oppertunity knocks.
 
This is very true. One needs to look at one wants in flying. There are guys/gals that I know that just want to fly no more than 3.5 hours/leg, and have a good QOL. So flying an RJ for a good company or Air Tran might be there goals. Then there are the ones that want "heavy" metal and aim for it. So moving up is relative. Go for what you want and enjoy the ride. Our time in the cockpits are marathons not sprints.
 
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